Covid-19 death rates in rural and urban America seem to be reaching 'tentative equilibrium', Daily Yonder reports

Percentage difference between rural and urban death rates, by week
(Graph by The Daily Yonder)

As the pandemic moves into its fourth year, its ultimate impact on rural America seems to be leveling off.  "Weekly death rates are still higher in rural America than in metropolitan America, but the difference is nothing like it was in earlier phases of the pandemic," reports Sarah Melotte of The Daily Yonder. "Rural America has borne a disproportionately large share of the Covid-19 deaths. . . . But after years of sharply divergent death rates, rural and urban America have reached a tentative equilibrium."

In rural areas, surges of infection were often to blame for "the large gap between the cumulative death rates in rural and urban areas," Melotte writes. "Earlier in the pandemic, the weekly rural death rate was more than two times higher than the urban rate for months. In the last year, however, the gap – while still significant – has stabilized. . . . . Health experts say, the smaller gap between urban and rural death rates is reassuring because it means the nationwide death rate is relatively stable."

The cumulative impact of Covid in rural America tells a story. "By the first week of December 2020, rural and metropolitan counties had about the same number of cumulative deaths proportionately. . . . Since the initial coronavirus surge, which concentrated in New York, the rural death rate has been higher than the metro death rate during every single surge, including the current small surge."

That's explained partly by lower vaccination rates, Melotte reports: "Only 56% of rural residents are fully vaccinated today, compared to 67% of their urban counterparts. . . . Rural areas are, on average, poorer, older, and sicker than their urban counterparts."

Dr. Randy Wykoff, dean of the College of Public Health at East Tennessee State University, told Melotte: “For two years we saw massive spikes. But for the last 10 months, we haven’t. The question everybody is asking is, are we going to keep seeing the spikes?" Wykoff noted the prospect of annual vaccinations "that are targeted at the currently dominant strains of the coronavirus, similar to the way flu vaccines are developed," Melotte reports.