Friday, October 09, 2020

Trump leads among rural voters by 24 points, says Pew poll that also finds deep division between the two sides

For a larger version of the chart, click on it.
President Trump leads Democratic nominee Joe Biden among registered voters in rural areas, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a new poll by the highly respected, nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Biden leads among suburban voters, 51 to 43, and among urbanites 70-25. Overall, he leads 52-42.

Trump's handling of the pandemic appears to have helped Biden; 57% of voters "say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus, while 40% express a similar level of confidence in Trump," Pew reports. In June, Biden held a narrower, 11-percentage-point lead on handling the coronavirus outbreak (52% Biden, 41% Trump).

The poll starkly demonstrates a deep divide. "Fully 89% of Trump supporters say that if Biden wins, they not only would be very concerned over the country’s direction, they believe it would lead to “lasting harm” for the country. A nearly identical majority of Biden supporters (90%) say Trump’s election would result in lasting harm to the United States."

Pew notes, "The survey was in the field when Trump announced on Twitter, early on the morning of Oct. 2, that he and first lady Melania Trump had contracted covid-19. There are no significant differences in voter preferences, or in confidence in the two candidates to handle the impact of the coronavirus, before and after his announcement."

UPDATE, Oct. 11: A new ABC News-Washington Post poll taken Oct. 6-9 has Trump ahead among rural likely voters, 58% to 38%. Biden leads in the suburbs, 53-44, largely on the strength of a big gender gap; among suburban women, he leads 62-34; among suburban men, Trump leads 54-43. The poll did not break down rural voters by sex, probably due to the relatively small rural sample.

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