Rural and small-town voters may be more closely divided in presidential race than four years ago

Rural and small-town voters, a linchpin for President Bush's two elections, may be much more closely divided on the current choice for president, according to the latest poll for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal.

Among voters who said they live in a small town or a rural area, two of the four options offered them, Arizona Sen. John McCain had 46 percent and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama had 42 percent. The margin of error for this sample of 411 voters was plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, so McCain did not have a clear lead. When other candidates were included, Obama led in the sample 43-42, while independent Ralph Nader got 4 percent and Libertarian Bob Barr got 2 percent. Among all voters, the survey showed Obama leading 47-41, with an error margin of 3.1 points, again making the result marginal.

The poll lumped together rural and small-town voters, who collectively made up 41 percent of the total sample, indicating that most who said they live in "small towns," 63 percent of the combined subsample, are not rural. Of the total sample, 16 percent identified themselves as "rural;" nationally, the population is about 20 percent rural. When these two groups of were asked how they voted in 2004, a combined 47 percent said they voted for Bush, and 31 percent said they voted for John Kerry. The rest said they voted for someone else, didn't vote or weren't sure. While the pollsters did not release separate data for the "rural" and "small town" samples, other data indicated that McCain fares best among rural voters. They accounted for 18 percent of his support and only 13 percent of Obama's.

When asked if each candidate had a background and set of values they can identify with, rural and small-town voters clearly favored McCain, and a plurality said they did not identify with Obama. The yes-no results were McCain 60-33, Obama 42-48. One possible factor: 11 percent of these voters said Obama is Muslim; only 6 percent in cities and suburbs said that. Still, when these voters were asked if a candidate was in the mainstream or out of step with most Americans' thinking, Obama had the edge, 56-32, to McCain's 48-39.

The poll was conducted July 18-21 by Democratic pollster Peter Hart and Republican pollster Neil Newhouse. For the Journal's report on it, click here. (Subscription may be required)