Rural heartland banker survey shows highest economic outlook since 2011, but hiring and retail sales are still down

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download the full report.

A February Creighton University survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwest states that rely on farming and energy showed sunny economic predictions for six months from now, with the highest confidence index since 2011. Still, hiring and retail sales remain weak, and low loan volume is still a concern. The index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

Though current economic activity is still below pre-pandemic levels, "sharp gains in grain prices, federal farm support, and the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy. Only 8 percent of bank CEOs indicated economic conditions worsened from the previous month," Creighton economist Ernie Goss writes.

Farmland prices, farm equipment sales, home sales and checking deposits were all up a little from last month and a lot from last February. The land price index is the highest since May 2013, has recorded five straight months above growth-neutral in that category for the first time since 2013, Goss reports. Equipment sales, likewise, have been above growth-neutral for the past three months after 86 consecutive months below growth-neutral. Half the bankers said they expect equipment dealers to see a 1-4% increase in sales over the next 12 months, and 23% said they expect to see a 5-10% increase.