There is little probability that climate change is a natural occurrence, according to a study by Shaun Lovejoy, a physics professor at McGill University in Montreal. In the study, published in the online journal Climate Dynamics, Loveyjoy concluded that "natural-warming hypothesis may be ruled
out 'with confidence levels great than 99 percent, and most likely greater
than 99.9 percent,” the university says in a press release.
"Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature," the release says. "Lovejoy’s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability."
Lovejoy said, “This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers. Their two most convincing arguments – that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong – are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”
The study predicts, with the standard 95 percent confidence level, that a doubling of carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere would cause the climate to warm by between 1.9 and 4.2 degrees Celsius. "That range is more precise than – but in line with -- the IPCC’s prediction that temperatures would rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius if CO2 concentrations double," the release says.
The study is behind a pay wall, but an excerpt can be found on the Cambridge University Press by clicking here.
"Rather than using complex computer models to estimate the effects of greenhouse-gas emissions, Lovejoy examines historical data to assess the competing hypothesis: that warming over the past century is due to natural long-term variations in temperature," the release says. "Lovejoy’s study applies statistical methodology to determine the probability that global warming since 1880 is due to natural variability."
Lovejoy said, “This study will be a blow to any remaining climate-change deniers. Their two most convincing arguments – that the warming is natural in origin, and that the computer models are wrong – are either directly contradicted by this analysis, or simply do not apply to it.”
The study predicts, with the standard 95 percent confidence level, that a doubling of carbon-dioxide levels in the atmosphere would cause the climate to warm by between 1.9 and 4.2 degrees Celsius. "That range is more precise than – but in line with -- the IPCC’s prediction that temperatures would rise by 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius if CO2 concentrations double," the release says.
The study is behind a pay wall, but an excerpt can be found on the Cambridge University Press by clicking here.
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