Rural counties with recreation economies tend to produce more votes for Democrats than other rural counties do

Voting margins in rural recreation counties in the 2020 presidential election
(Daily Yonder map; click the image to enlarge it or click here for the interactive version.)

"Americans are increasingly likely to live in a county where presidential elections are decided by a landslide of 20 points or more. But the trend is slightly different in so-called rural recreation counties – places where recreational activities drive a big part of the local economy," Sarah Melotte reports for The Daily Yonder. Such counties "have fewer landslide elections and more Democratic votes than rural counties of other economic types." Melotte defines a landslide as one where a party won by more than 20 percentage points.

The overall increase in landslide elections is a function of people self-sorting, partisan gerrymandering, and the migration of rural Democrats into the Republican Party, but recreation counties tend to have a larger share of Democrats, making elections more competitive. "The difference is slight, but measurable for the last 16 years," Melotte reports. "Republican counties have higher average percentages of landslide elections in both recreation and non-recreation counties from 2004-2020. But there were more Democratic landslides in recreation counties than other economic types."

Recreation counties not only have a larger share of Democrats than other rural counties; they had an average voter turnout of 70% in the 2020 election, 9 percentage points higher than the 61% average voter turnout for other rural counties that year, Melotte reports.

Moreover, recreation counties are seeing more population growth than other counties, chiefly driven by the pandemic trend of urbanites relocating to rural areas with amenities such as good broadband and natural beauty. So, the current trends could continue in the coming years, Melotte reports.