Rural caucus-goers will outnumber urban ones in Iowa, campaigns say; new polls drive new tactics

As Sen. Barack Obama and former Gov. Mike Huckabee took narrow leads in polls of Iowa caucusgoers, supplanting Sen. Hillary Clinton and former Gov. Mitt Romney, The Washington Post reported that rural voters are expected to have disproportionate influence in the Jan. 3 caucuses. "Campaign officials describe the pool this year as typically older, more likely to be rural than urban, and more inclined to pick a candidate based on practical issues such as electability rather than on ideological grounds," Peter Slevin and Shailagh Murray report.

The latest Iowa Poll for The Des Moines Register, conducted Nov. 25-28 (results in Register chart), found women shifting from Clinton to Obama, Thomas Beaumont reports: "Obama leads with support from 31 percent of women likely attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. In October, Clinton was the preferred candidate of 34 percent of women caucusgoers, compared to 21 percent for Obama. Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers. . . . Other troubling news for Clinton included a sharp decline in support from members of union households, where she was the preferred candidate with support from 34 percent in the October poll. In the new poll, Clinton is third among union households with 21 percent." The poll's margin of error was 4.4 percentage points, so both leads were statistically insigniifcant.

The poll of Republicans "shows Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, leading Romney 38 percent to 22 percent among those who consider themselves born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged Huckabee 23 percent to 18 percent among people in that group, which accounts for one-half of all likely caucus participants." But Register columnist David Yepsen cautions, "Huckabee should be concerned about his turnout operation. He's thinly staffed, and Romney has the better organization. Look for Romney to start pouring everything into Iowa to stave off an upset loss that could derail his entire candidacy." (Read more)

Huckabee, speaking at the Cheshire County GOP holiday party, aired tonight on C-SPAN's "Road to the White House," played up his rural roots. He said he was the first in family to graduate from high school, and on his mother's side, was "one generation removed from dirt floors and outhouses." He also recalled using Lava soap: "I was in college when I found out it's not supposed to hurt when you take a shower." Huckabee will appear on the renewed "Don Imus Show" on RFD-TV at 7:30 a.m. CST Tuesday, its second day back on the air, reports Michael Shear on The Trail, the Post political blog: "When Imus was forced out, many politicians and former guests said they regretted their appearances on the show and said they would no longer be guests if he returned to the airwaves. Huckabee was not one of them. From the beginning, he said Imus had made a mistake and should be allowed to move on." Huckabee told USA Today earlier this year, "He's continued to have me on his show when I said stupid things. . . . What Imus said was wrong, but he seems genuinely sorry." (Read more)

UPDATE, Dec. 3: Romney shifted gears over the weekend and scheduled a speech this Thursday on religion, reflecting the possibility that his Mormon faith is giving him trouble with some voters, perhaps especially with rural people unfamiliar with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints. At an "Ask Mitt Anything" town-hall meeting at Kirkwood Community College in Cedar Rapids, telecast on C-SPAN, a male questioner who appeared to be about 65 said, "Your religion is a concern to many people. I'd like to hear your answer to that question." Romney replied that Americans should not base their vote for president "on where a person goes to church," quoted Abraham Lincoln on "political religion" of the nation being support for the rule of law and the Constitution, and mentioned the constitutional provision that there shall be no religious test for public office. For a take on new tactics by Romney and Clinton, who is now questioning Obama's courage and integrity, by Peter Nicholas and Peter Wallsten of the Los Angeles Times, click here. For a Post story by Anne Kornblut on the Clinton-Obama developments, click here.