Did Obama or Clinton carry rural Nevada? It probably depends on how you define 'rural'

We weren't planning to write about the rural vote in Nevada's presidential caucuses, since the race there was close and the Silver State is the third least rural state, using the most common definition of "rural." But now the Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama campaigns are saying that each of their candidates carried the rural areas of Nevada, and their argument helps illustrate the difficulty in defining just what is rural.

Clinton won the statewide vote, 51 to 45 percent, but news reports generally gave the rural vote to the Illinois senator. "Obama pointed to his strong showing in rural areas, where Democrats traditionally struggle," wrote Anjeanette Damon in the Reno Gazette-Journal, adopting language from Obama's press release: "We performed well all across the state, including rural areas where Democrats have traditionally struggled." The New York Times reports, "Obama noted that he had received one more delegate in Nevada than Mrs. Clinton because of a strong performance in precincts outside Las Vegas," seat of Clark County, which cast almost three-fourths of the state's vote. Clinton "handily won Clark County," The Times' Jeff Zeleny and Jennifer Steinhauer write.

The Daily Yonder says Obama carried the rural vote, 47 to 43 percent, based on the vote in counties inside and outside metropolitan areas. (Click here for a county-by-county list, boken down between metropolitan and non-metro counties.) However, Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson said on CBS's "Face the Nation" this morning that Clinton carried the rural vote.

UPDATE, Jan. 21: The Clinton campaign still has not responded to our requests for an explanation, but we now believe Wolfson was referring to the CNN entrance poll, which had Clinton winning 44 to 42 percent (within the error margin) in areas that were defined as rural based on the size of the caucus-goer's community. Thanks to Keating Holland at CNN, who explained to us that a caucus-goer was classified as urban if the precinct was inside the city limits of a major city, suburban if outside those limits but inside a metropolitan area, and rural if outside a metro area.

The entrance poll identified 12 percent of caucus-goers as rural, the same percentage as the actual vote cast in non-metro counties. The poll showed Clinton winning suburbs (46 percent of the total) 49 to 43 percent and urban areas (42 percent of the total) 46 to 41.

CNN's method emphasizes speed over the sort of demographic accuracy we seek here. It is the latest way we have heard of defining "rural," which can also be defined as population outside defined places of 2,500 population or more. The most common, and crudest, way is the metro vs. non-metro definition, under which Nevada is the third least rural state, with only 8.49 percent of its 2000 population in "rural areas." But in the West, including Nevada, huge counties with many rural areas are included in Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. For example, using the metro-area definition, California is the least rural state. (New Jersey ranks between California and Nevada.)

Assuming that Obama carried rural areas, Al Giordano writes in The Field, "It’s fascinating because many urban and suburban liberals often malign rural Americans as somehow being more prejudiced against African-Americans than they. Well, in three states in a row, the rural voters went for the senator from Chicago."

For the Daily Yonder's report on the rural vote in South Carolina, where John McCain beat Mike Huckabee by slightly more than his statewide margin, click here.