Appalachian Democrats say Obama could carry their states in fall if he would spend time there

The headline is "Will Obama fight for rural votes?" but the story in today's Lexington Herald-Leader is almost all about Appalachia -- specifically, Kentucky and West Virginia, where Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama like a rented mule in primaries this month. The prevailing view of Democrats quoted by Linda Blackford is that if Obama spent time in Appalachia, he would overcome some of the resistance based on his race and false rumors that he is a Muslim (cited as fact by one top Republican county official to Blackford).

The hopeful Democrats cite the example of John F. Kennedy, who spent half the month before the 1960 West Virginia primary showing voters in the Mountain State that "he wasn't wearing the pope's clothes," said Charles Peters, who was Kennedy's Kanawha County chairman and went on to serve in his administration and found The Washington Monthly. Obama made only one campaign stop this year in West Virginia, and likewise in Kentucky, and lost both by more than 30 percentage points.

We have no doubt that Obama could gain many votes by spending time in Appalachia and finding common ground like that state Rep. Greg Stumbo of Prestonsburg, Ky., mentioned to Blackford: "He could say, 'I'm one of you, I've been looked down upon because of my color and we've got to overcome these stereotypes.' I think that would sell pretty well up here. People want to hear him say things, like 'I'm not a Muslim, I'm not part of this sect that hates America.'"

But time is the most pecious commodity for presidential nominees, the election is now about electoral votes, and Kentucky and West Virginia only have eight and five, respectively. The real battle in Appalachia this fall is likely to be in Pennsylvania and Ohio, particularly the "Pennsyltucky" congressional that runs from Pennsylvania to Kentucky. Princeton University history professor Sean Wilentz noted on Huffington Post the importance of Pennsylvania and Ohio to Democrats.

In Ohio and Pennsylvania, the map looks more favorable to Obama than those below, which ran with Blackford's story. Peters told her that Obama also needs to make an effort in other regions. "They still have to try because these people exist all over the country " he said. "I just think they (the Obama campaign) didn't realize how hard they had to fight back. It's got to be a multi-pronged attack." Text in the graphic below contains an error; Obama did better in Kentucky than in West Virginia, but worse in Eastern Kentucky.