U.S. birth rate falls as young women delay childbearing to focus on school and work; decline seems less in rural areas

Change in birth rate by county. In 1996-2007, rates grew fastest in small cities and rural areas; in 2007-2019, they fell nearly everywhere. New York Times maps, adapted by The Rural Blog. Click map to enlarge; here for interactive version.

Younger women across the U.S., including in rural areas, are increasingly delaying childbearing to focus on education and careers. "The result has been the slowest growth of the American population since the 1930s, and a profound change in American motherhood," Sabrina Tavernise, Claire Cain Miller, Quoctrung Bui and Robert Gebeloff report for The New York Times. "Women under 30 have become much less likely to have children. Since 2007, the birth rate for women in their 20s has fallen by 28 percent, and the biggest recent declines have been among unmarried women. The only age groups in which birthrates rose over that period were women in their 30s and 40s — but even those began to decline over the past three years."

The trend became evident in the past decade, with the birth rate falling fastest in places with the highest job growth (which are more often metro counties). No cause has been established, but women in such areas may therefore have more of an incentive to delay motherhood, said Caitlin Myers, a Middlebury College economics professor who analyzed county-level birth records for the Times. As women become more educated, they become more convinced that motherhood has a price, she said.

It's happening in rural counties, too, though not as much as in metro counties. "The large urban counties that have gained the most jobs and population since the recession have seen birthrates fall twice as fast as smaller, rural counties that have not recovered as strongly," the Times reports. Fertility tends to be higher in economically stagnant areas, and childbearing often has more cultural importance for women.

Also, anecdotal evidence suggests that rural women seeking higher education may have skewed the numbers toward metro counties by moving to cities to pursue a degree and a career afterward. Several women interviewed in the Times story had done just that. 

Percentage of people 25 and up with at least a bachelor's degree, from 2005-09 on the left, and 2015-19 on the right. U.S. Census Bureau maps, adapted by The Rural Blog. Click the image to enlarge it or click here for the original report.