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| Population change in nonmetropolitan counties from 2010 to 2020 (University of New Hampshire Carsey School map; click the image to enlarge it) |
We've known that most rural areas lost population in the last decade, but a new analysis of Census data found that rural America overall lost population for the first time in history, and the trend could continue, according to new analysis of 2020 census data by the University of New Hampshire's Carsey School of Public Policy. But some rural areas are gaining population, mostly from adult people of color, according to an analysis by The Daily Yonder.
Nonmetropolitan counties lost 289,000 residents out of about 46 million from 2010 to 2020, Kenneth Johnson reports for the Carsey School. In the previous decade, rural America gained 1.5 million new residents and in the 1990s grew by nearly 3.4 million.
"If rural outmigration is ongoing, and deaths continue to exceed births in many rural areas due to low fertility and higher mortality among the aging rural population, then population losses are likely to continue in much of rural America," Johnson reports. "And the onset of Covid-19, which generated additional social, economic, and epidemiological turbulence, is likely to contribute to more rural population loss because it significantly increased rural deaths and discouraged births. Rural counties with sustained population loss face significant challenges maintaining critical infrastructure needed to provide quality health care, education, and a viable economy for the remaining residents."
"If rural outmigration is ongoing, and deaths continue to exceed births in many rural areas due to low fertility and higher mortality among the aging rural population, then population losses are likely to continue in much of rural America," Johnson reports. "And the onset of Covid-19, which generated additional social, economic, and epidemiological turbulence, is likely to contribute to more rural population loss because it significantly increased rural deaths and discouraged births. Rural counties with sustained population loss face significant challenges maintaining critical infrastructure needed to provide quality health care, education, and a viable economy for the remaining residents."
Though rural America as a whole has fewer people, "Parts of rural America are adding population, and some segments of the rural population — especially adults, people of color, and Hispanics — are growing," Sarah Melotte reports for The Daily Yonder. "Rural America’s adult population (ages 18 and up) increased 1.2%, according to a Daily Yonder analysis. During the same period, the share of the adult rural population composed of people of color and Hispanics grew by 22%, from 17.1% in 2010 to 20.8% in 2020. Diversity in the adult population increased in over 95% of the nation's rural counties since the last census -- about the same percentage as urban counties."
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| Percentage change in non-white and Hispanic population by metro status, 2010-2020 (Daily Yonder map; click the image to enlarge it or click here for the interactive version) |
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