'Overwhelming' rural support is key to Trump's continued popularity among Republicans in Iowa

Trump remains popular in rural Iowa.
(Photo by Cheney Orr, WSJ)

Rural voters are the key to keeping Donald Trump as Republicans' first choice for the party's presidential nomination, reports John McCormick of The Wall Street Journal. Hancock County, Iowa, voters show Trump's influence in smaller communities. "Trump appears poised to win this county Monday and claim victory in Iowa's caucuses, powered largely by his overwhelming support among rural voters who see him as the best candidate to advance a populist conservative agenda."

Despite Trump's 91 criminal charges and civil fraud trial, many of Iowa's rural voters don't look at his track record as a negative. McCormick explains, "Many GOP voters here think Trump is most likely to achieve their ultimate goal — defeating President Biden — because he is a proven commodity and ties or beats the incumbent in general election polls." And while Trump may be a Manhattanite, he is a wealthy businessman that area farmers believe can relate to their struggles. Hancock County voters also say they like the idea of Trump as a Washington outsider who can get things done.

In Hancock County, some voters don't like Trump or his penchant for verbal attacks, but they still plan to vote for him. Republican Damon Quandt, a 31-year-old bank lending officer, "had initially planned to back someone other than Trump in the caucuses," McCormick writes, "because there are aspects of Trump's personality he doesn't like. He now expects to vote for Trump, in part because at some point, he said, (Florida Gov. Ron) DeSantis stopped looking like he could win."

The Washington Post has a similar story from Theodoric Meyer, about how rural Iowa counties are becoming more Republican and suurban counties more Democratic. He writes that the trend "resembles changes across the Midwest and the rest of the country that helped Trump win in 2016."

The rural vote matters most in marginal elections, McCormick writes: "If Democrats keep Trump from racking up the gains he had in rural America in 2016 and 2020, it could undermine his ability to carry battlegrounds like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. His strength with rural voters hasn't been replicated among the centrist suburban voters who decide general elections, which is why [former South Carolina Gov. Nikki] Haley still makes the case she'd be the better candidate in November and why Democrats still have hope Biden can win another term despite poor poll numbers."