Report: Rural primary care physician shortages will persist for at least another 12 years

Graph by Celli Horstman and Arnav Shah, State of Rural Primary Care in the United States, Commonwealth Fund

Rural residents will continue to grapple with a shortage of primary care doctors for at least another 12 years, according to a report issued last week by the nonprofit Commonwealth Fund.

Using federal health workforce data, researchers concluded that "rural areas will continue to have only about two-thirds of the primary care physicians they need," reports Nada Hassanein for the Wisconsin Examiner. Report authors noted that the persistent shortage of primary care doctors leaves million of rural residents "with fewer options for routine and preventive care."

The report's release came just days after the window closed for hospitals to apply for a share of the $50 billion federal Rural Health Transformation Program administered by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Hassanein writes, "Some states want to use the federal money to expand their rural residency programs, as physicians who complete their residencies in rural areas are more likely to practice in one."

Nearly all of the more than 40 million rural Americans live in areas with primary care physician shortages, according to the report. "Forty-five percent of rural counties had five or fewer primary care doctors in 2023," Hassanein adds. "Roughly 200 rural counties lacked one altogether."

The report found that doctor shortages in rural areas vary by region. Hassanein writes, "States in the South had 3,411 patients per physician, whereas states in the Northeast had 1,979 residents per physician."

Although rural areas will continue to lack enough primary care physicians, some of the gap will be filled by rural nurse practitioners. Hassanein adds, "Nurse practitioners are the fastest-growing type of clinician in the U.S., regardless of geography, the report authors wrote."