Hillary Clinton carried the mostly rural, western end of Virginia but lost other rural areas of the state to Barack Obama in yesterday's premier presidential primary. Obama won 60 percent of the vote in the precincts that the National Election Pool exit poll classified as rural; those accounted for 18 percent of the statewide sample. He got the same percentage in suburbs, which accounted for just over half the sample, and 66 percent of the vote in cities.
Clinton had hoped to rack up a large margin in southwest Virginia, and she did, getting about 60 percent of its vote (90 percent in Buchanan County, where Virginia, West Virginia and Kentucky meet and the population is 2.6 percent black), but the region made up only 13 percent of the statewide total, according to the exit poll. The region is heavily white and Protestant; statewide, Clinton carried white Protestants 53 to 47. She and Obama tied among white Catholics.
Among all whites, Clinton won 50-49, well within the poll's margin of error. Whites accounted for 61 percent of the vote, African Americans 30 percent. Obama carried the black vote 88-12, making it the key to his 64 percent overall. But despite all the talk about race, gender may have played a large role, too. Among the 14 percent of voters who said the country is not ready to elect a black president, Clinton won 64-34, but among the 16 percent who said the country isn't ready to elect a woman president, Obama had a much wider margin, 81-16.
Other exit-poll signs of Obama's strength: Clinton carried white women by only 10 points, and tied with Obama among voters over 65. In the state's open primary, 7 percent of the Democratic vote came from Republicans, and they went 71-25 for Obama, recently rated last year's most liberal senator by the nonpartisan, authoritative National Journal. Nevertheless, Obama did better among self-identified conservatives than among liberals.
One of Clinton's few advantages was among the 22 percent of voters who said experience is the main thing they are looking for in a presidential candidate; she won 94 percent of their votes. Among the 56 percent who said their priority was change, Obama won five of every six votes. The exit poll results are striking, and worth a look; Obama won nearly every demographic group, a strong sign that he is gaining momentum as he surpasses Clinton in number of pledged delegates. Similar results in Maryland "raised the possibility that her coalition is beginning to crack," writes Jonathan Weisman of The Washington Post.
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