Cellulosic ethanol industry fell short of 2010 goal; none was blended commercially in 2nd half

No cellulosic ethanol was commercially blended with gasoline in the second half of 2010 though the federal renewable fuel standard called for five million gallons of the fuel to be produced last year. The Environmental Protection Agency set the target after it "took stock of the nascent industry's capabilities and lowered the bar from the earlier congressional target of 100 million gallons," Dina Fine Maron of ClimateWire reports for The New York Times. A ClimateWire analysis of EPA data revealed the lack of production during the second half of 2010; industry executives expected the total production for the year would be higher, while still falling short of the mandated level.

"Nathanael Greene, director of renewable energy policy at the Natural Resources Defense Council, also placed his estimate for total cellulosic ethanol production in the neighborhood of 1 million gallons," Fine Maron writes. The final tally for blending during the first half of 2010 is not yet available, and EPA declined to comment on its raw numbers. "Only a handful of pilot projects in the United States currently produce cellulosic biofuel, and they are not focused on selling it commercially," Fine Maron reports."As research and development plants, they do not operate at full capacity, and thus production costs, on a per-gallon basis, are steep."

The sources of cellulosic ethanol production are in flux as well. "The cast of companies that may be able to produce the fuel and sell it on the commercial market is constantly fluctuating, with some projects teetering on the brink of failure," Fine Maron writes, noting, "Industry experts say that lack of funds is what's holding back the industry, not technology. The harsh economy and bank requirements to prove that large biorefineries would be strong investments with definitive long-term customers leave startups struggling to find a source with deep pockets."

Some industry backers point to 2012 as the year cellulosic ethanol projects will scale up, driving its prices down. Those predictions are far from certain, Fine Maron reports. "You can't really mandate innovation. If a technology requires real innovation, requiring it isn't going to get it done," Greene told ClimateWire. "A lot of us have real optimism about this family of technologies ... but that doesn't mean you can time when it's going to happen." (Read more)