Direct federal aid to farmers predicted to more than double in 2020, driving forecast of 41.3% rise in net farm income

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service has published the last of three 2020 Farm Sector Income Forecasts. The forecast is updated three times a year, usually in February, August and November. ERS released a webinar Wednesday discussing the findings. The recording is not yet available, but will be posted here soon. Here are some of the report's top findings:

• Direct government farm payments (excluding USDA loans and crop-insurance payments) are forecast to total $46.5 billion, a $24 billion (107.1%) increase from 2019. That's mostly because of supplemental and disaster assistance for the coronavirus pandemic.
• Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is projected at $119.6 billion, a $36 billion (41.3%) increase from 2019. That figure is not adjusted for inflation.
• In inflation-adjusted 2020 dollars, net farm income is projected to increase $35 billion, also up 41.3% from 2019.
• Net cash farm income (a more precise measurement of profits) is predicted to increase $24.7 billion (22.6%) to $134.1 billion from last year. That figure is not adjusted for inflation.
• In inflation-adjusted 2020 dollars, net cash farm income is predicted to increase $23.4 billion, or 21.1%, from 2019. 
• Overall farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease $3.2 billion, or 0.9%, to $366.6 billion.
• Total animal and animal product receipts are predicted to decrease $9.7 billion, or 5.5% from 2019.
• Total crop receipts are forecast to increase $6.4 billion, or 3.3%, from 2019. Receipts for fruits, nuts, soybeans, vegetables, melons and sugar beets are projected to increase, while receipts for corn and cotton are expected to decrease.
• Total production expenses are predicted at $343.6 billion, a $5.2 billion (1.5%) decrease from 2019.
• Interest expenses are predicted to decrease $5.4 billion, or 25.9%, from 2019.
• Spending on livestock, poultry, oils and fuels is also expected to decline, but fertilizer spending is forecast to increase $1.1 billion, or 5.1%, from 2019. 
• Net rent to landlords is projected to increase $1.3 billion, or 7.6%, in 2020.
• Farm sector equity is projected to decline by 0.1% after adjusting for inflation.
• Farm sector assets are forecast at $3.12 trillion, a 1.5% rise from 2019, following increases in farm real estate assets and other investments and financial assets.
• Farm sector debt is projected at $435.2 billion, a 4% increase from 2019.
• Real estate debt is projected to increase 6.1% from 2019.
• Farm sector debt-to-asset levels, which have been trending higher since 2012, are predicted to increase again in 2020 to 13.95%. 
• Working capital is projected to increase 6% this year, after an 11.9% increase last year.

Here are the top findings from the September 2020 update and from the December 2019 update.