Ukraine war could halve its crop output; that sends prices for food and most-used phosphate fertilizer to record highs

The Ukraine War has sent global food prices to record highs, and reality is beginning to reflect the prices already jacked up in markets driven by fear and speculation.

"Harvests of some of Ukraine’s most important crops could be cut in half this year, threatening its position as a major exporter and exacerbating already tight global supplies," reports Megan Durisin of Bloomberg. "Farmers have just started planting corn and sunflowers, progress of which is being hobbled by field mines and a lack of fuel and fertilizers. For wheat that was sown months before the war, a chunk of the area is occupied by troops." 

Ukraine's agriculture ministry said Tuesday "that six large granaries had been destroyed by Russian shelling," The New York Times reports. Black Sea ports are closed, and there are food shortages in places, so some farmers may "switch to crops more suited to local consumption than for export." But they also fear their supplies of seed, fertilizer, fuel and workers may run short. "The Ukrainian government has temporarily exempted agriculture workers from military duties, but some have chosen to fight," Emma Bubola, Valeriya Safronova and Maria Varenikova report for the Times.

Prices for diammonium phosphate, the world's most widely used phosphorus fertilizer, are higher than ever recorded by DTN/Progressive Farmer, its Russ Quinn reports. That's one reason U.S. spring-wheat farmers might not plant as much additional wheat as expected. One, Philip Volk of Rugby, N.D., told The Economist that he will plant only 5 to 10 percent more, because higher input costs raise risk: “Two weeks of the wrong weather can change the story in a heartbeat.”