Politico Nightly
It’s time to talk about it out loud: This year’s election is going to be a train wreck. Not just Election Day, but the weeks and perhaps even months to come.
For starters, it might not be clear who controls the House for days, or longer. In the Senate, it could be weeks. In fact, if the polling averages are correct, we might not know who controls the Senate until after a potential early December runoff in Georgia.
But that’s the least of the trouble ahead. All the elements of a perfect storm are present: a rise in threats against election administrators and poll workers; outdated and overstrained election infrastructure; a brain drain of officials experienced with the complexities of administering elections; external cyber threats; and an abundance of close races that could extend long past Election Day as mail-in and provisional ballots are counted, recounted and litigated.
Then, there are the hundreds of Republican candidates up and down the ballot with a record of denying or expressing doubts about the 2020 presidential results — a few were even present at the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. At least a dozen candidates running in competitive Senate and governor and secretary of state contests refused to commit or declined to respond when asked whether they’ll accept the results of their races.
A blowout Republican victory might remove many of the most combustible elements. But short of a red wave Tuesday, we’re looking at an ugly finish.
If those prominent election-denying candidates lose, it will not be graciously — remember, these are candidates whose political brands are rooted in their refusal to accept the 2020 election results, and their own high-profile and extra-legal efforts to overturn them. For them, the traditional pain and disappointment of defeat will be amplified because of the high expectations of midterm GOP success. And there are no party graybeards who will be able to talk them down — in fact, the post-election recriminations will likely find backing from party leaders and elected officials who fear antagonizing a base that’s been primed to believe the 2020 election was rigged.
The wellspring of these false claims, former President Donald Trump, is already laying the predicate — last week, he sought to cast doubt on the integrity of Pennsylvania’s results by claiming the 2022 results there are rigged as well.
Election Day never goes entirely smoothly across the nation. There have long been isolated cases of voter intimidation or suppression, reports of voting irregularities, precincts that run out of ballots, long lines and accusations of fraud, among other potholes. But we’ve never seen anything like these conditions, all swirling against the backdrop of a sprawling election-denial industrial complex that looks to be a permanent feature of American politics.
The perverse incentives of our current system mean it’s likely that there will be candidates who seek to take advantage of these conditions, rather than dial down the temperature by operating with caution and temperance. Don’t be surprised if there are tactical election night declarations of victory well before the outcome is clear.
The swing states that will be critical to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election may be the scenes of some of the worst behavior. Already, the Justice Department noted that seven battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — accounted for nearly 60 percent of all threats of physical violence that election workers reported to a federal task force on election threats.
Those states are home to numerous photo-finish races this year — and some of the nation’s best-known election deniers are on the ballot in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Well-aware of the fraught environment in which they’re operating, election administrators across the country have worked diligently to increase transparency and restore public faith in the integrity of election results.
Those efforts — and a one-sided election — might be enough to avoid widespread meltdowns this year. But that will only kick the can down the road. A Republican rout Tuesday could sweep in a collection of election-denying candidates who will have authority over approving vote tallies and certifying results — including in the battleground states that will decide the 2024 presidential election.
No comments:
Post a Comment