As Democrats turn away from Iowa, some in party see ways to get more rural votes: show up, be humble, value work

Chart shows examples of Third Way analysis that found "most Democratic candidates improved on President Biden's 2020 performance in rural America — with some notable exceptions," such as Black nominees, Josh Kraushaar of Axios reports.

One step forward, two steps back, rural Democrats might say. The midterm elections showed that Democrats can still win elections with rural votes if they show up and ask for them, but the party's plan to end the Iowa caucuses' first place in the presidential nomination process "is not a great way to mend fences in rural America, where the Democratic brand has become virtually unmarketable," Storm Lake Times Pilot Editor Art Cullen writes in The New York Times, essentially rewriting a column that appeared in his weekly.

Art Cullen

For the locals, Cullen accepts some of the Democrats' rationale, but not "two frauds cooked up to put the caucuses to rest," one that the state party "messed up reporting results" in 2020. In both columns, he blames that on a cellphone app suggested by national Democrats, who rejected Iowa Democrats' plan.

For the national audience, Cullen seems to accept that "We are too white. . . . But diversity did have a chance here. Barack Obama was vaulted to the White House" in 2008 by a strong showing in rural caucuses, with the help of rural newspapers. "Iowa had no problem giving a gay man, Pete Buttigieg, and a Jewish democratic socialist, Bernie Sanders, the two top tickets out to New Hampshire last cycle."

Caucuses have virtues: "Candidates were forced to meet actual voters in village diners across the state. We took our vetting role seriously; you had better be ready to analyze Social Security’s actuarial prospects. . . . We did a decent, if imperfect, job of winnowing the field. Along with New Hampshire, we set things up so South Carolina could often become definitive, which it will be no longer." Cullen says "It's OK that South Carolina goes first," because having the first presidential voting hasn't paid off for Iowa: "Nothing really happened to stop the long decline as the state’s Main Streets withered, farmers disappeared and the undocumented dwell in the shadows."

Another view: Froma Harrop, whose column appears in some rural papers, says the change will be more democratic because most South Carolina Democrats are Black, and Black voters haven't had a big voice in the nomination process; and because the caucus process "favors activists who are not deterred by snow, cold or the dark and have the luxury of free evening hours. These folks are skilled in working the intricacies of the caucus process and often aggressive. Not favored are Democrats who work nights at Walmart, drive an Uber after hours and have little children to care for."

In a piece for The Hill, William S. Becker sees "signs that Democrats can build a more substantial base in rural America before 2024. All they have to do is think differently, talk differently and act differently." he cites a report from the Rural-Urban Bridge Initiative, "a group of experts brought together in 2021 by Appalachian farmer and author Anthony Flaccavento and several colleagues." They point out that "more than 40 percent of voters are rural in many battleground states," Becker writes. "Since 2006, their partisan allegiances have depended on which party pays more attention to them. Winning as little as 2 to 3 percent of their votes can change election outcomes."

Becker adds, "RUBI interviewed 50 rural candidates and researched recent studies on what makes candidates successful in rural areas. It distilled the results into 11 recommendations that seem more about respect and common courtesy than political strategy. They include listening more and talking less; respecting the local people’s knowledge and history; being humble and mission-driven rather than ego-driven; focusing on problem-solving; emphasizing involvement in local activities; treating voters of color as individuals rather than voting blocs, as well as not pandering to racism or gratuitously antagonizing white voters."

Becker also cites a piece in The American Prospect, in which Robert Kuttner writes, “Just showing up turns out to be hugely important, as a sign of respect and commitment;” and a post from Bryce Oates and farmer Jake Davis in The Pulse, a nonpartisan blog focused on North Carolina: “If Democrats truly want to increase their competitiveness in rural America, they should start now by putting working people at the center of their narrative while supporting bold, popular policies that would allow those people to live a good life.”

UPDATE: On NBC's "Meet the Press," Sen. Jon Tester said Democrats should focus their messaging “more on the things we’re doing for rural America,” such as infrastructure. The Montana Democrat "pointed to bills he’s working on that deal with big packers and meat consolidation, which he said would help cow and calf operators make a better living."