Where tornadoes develop has shifted more to the East; Southern and Midwestern states are now at greater risk.

With the right elements, tornadoes are possible
in all 50 states. (Adobe Stock photo)

Over the past 50 years, where tornadoes develop has shifted from the Great Plain's infamous "Tornado Alley" to Midwestern and Southeastern states, a new study published in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology finds. The recent research "confirms the legitimacy of this shift and highlights a change in when tornadoes are likely to occur," reports Matthew Cappucci of The Washington Post. "The results spell problems for residents of the Midwest and Southeast, where a higher population density and a greater prevalence of mobile homes lead to a more serious vulnerability to tornadoes."

Researchers don't know why tornado prevalence has shifted East, but their findings show an increased tornado risk across the South, with lower risk in the Plains. "Researchers not involved in the study said the reported trends are convincing but pointed out some limitations in the analysis," Cappucci explains. Karen Kosiba, a tornado researcher at the Center for Severe Weather Research, said "the greater population density in the Southeast compared with that in the Plains exposes it to more damage. That may be part of why twisters in Alabama and Mississippi appear to be on the ground for longer compared with their Plains counterparts."

The study confirms what many social scientists and meteorologists had feared. "The South, where tornado vulnerability is particularly high because of its dense population and concentration of mobile homes, may now be subject to an even greater risk," Cappucci reports. "It remains unclear whether this apparent eastward shift in tornado incidence is something that will reverse or become more pronounced. . . . Researchers hesitate to say what will happen next."

Victor Gensini, a leading researcher on tornado trends in the United States, "isn't persuaded that the shift is enduring," Cappucci adds. "Because twister hot spots jump around so much, Gensini and other researchers have expressed a general dislike for the term, 'Tornado Alley.'" Gensini told him: "We need to stop using tornado alley to describe a specific region. The reality is that tornadoes can occur in all 50 states on any calendar day if the ingredients are present."