A USDA miscount of 4.5 million acres of corn is adding to a loss of trust among farmers in federal data

For profit-parched farmers, USDA data report errors can be costly. Farmers already face losses, and many fear they can no longer rely on USDA predictions. (Graph by Lori Hayes, Farm Journal)

After one of its worst corn-harvest predictions "in recent memory," the U.S. Department of Agriculture blamed a lack of farmer survey responses for its miscount. But the steep decline in the number of farmers who returned surveys points to farming communities that may no longer trust the USDA, reports Kevin Draper of The New York Times. "Corn estimates were off by 4.5 million acres last year. A lack of survey responses, not job cuts, led to the miss, the Agriculture Department said."

While a 5% undercount may not seem like much, it may have affected commodity purchases and farm incomes. Draper explains, "Estimates of crop size are some of the most closely read [USDA] reports." Traders use those reports to decide on commodity purchases, which influences the prices farmers receive for their crops. Farmers use the information to decide when to sell their crops for the best price.

But amid deep staffing cuts at the USDA, many farmers worry that its reports are no longer reliable. "The corn miss prompted Farm Journal, an agricultural publication, to ask respondents to its monthly survey whether they remained confident in department data," Draper writes. "Most of the farmers, ranchers and economists polled responded 'no.'"

Because farmers compete in commodity trading markets, the accuracy of USDA data helped them gain a leg up over traders who use sophisticated algorithms to manage their purchases. Shay Foulk, who farms 1,500 acres and runs a seed business near Peoria, Ill., told Draper, "People trade the reports whether the reports are true or not. . . .The farmer just feels they are at a disadvantage if those numbers are inaccurate."

Among the USDA sections where Department of Government Efficiency cut thousands of jobs, the "National Agricultural Statistics Service, which produces crop reports, was one of the hardest-hit divisions; it lost 34% of its staff," Draper reports. NASS used to employ roughly 800 employees. It now has about 500.