Makers of guns and ammo see very different scenarios for sales, depending on result of election

A shop in Sidney, Neb. (John Gress, NYT, 2008)

There haven't been any substantial changes to gun-control laws under President Obama, and no attempts for any by his administration, but outdoor retailers and gun makers are anticipating a bump like the one they saw in the sales of 2008 if he is re-elected in November, reports Shelly Banjo of The Wall Street Journal.

However, if Gov. Mitt Romney ousts Obama, outdoor stores like Cabela's and Bass Pro Shops, and manufacturers like Smith & Wesson and Olin Corp., the maker of Winchester guns and ammunition, see a whole different world of retail. "If Mitt Romney is elected, there's no perceived threat on the freedom to own guns, people might decide to spend disposable income on things like outerwear instead," said Joe Arterburn, a Cabela's spokesman.

Banjo reports that "nearly 12 million background checks for gun sales took place in the U.S. this year through Aug. 31, up 56 percent from the same period in 2008, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Customers must undergo background checks before buying firearms from federally licensed sellers. Collections of federal excise taxes on the sale of new firearms and ammunition, a proxy for gun sales, rose to $453 million in 2009, a 45 percent jump from the year before. That's a significant surge compared with the average 6 percent annual increase reported by the Treasury Department's Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau from 1993 to 2008."

"Businesses are trying to plan, order inventory and staff stores, and you have this event coming down that could significantly impact sales," said Wells Fargo analyst Matt Nemer. The stores are simply responding. And consumers are responding to National Rifle Association campaign-related ads, which warn voters of increased gun regulations if President Obama is re-elected. Adam Fetcher, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, defended the president's policies. "President Obama's record makes clear that he supports and respects the Second Amendment and the tradition of gun ownership in this country, and we'll continue to fight back against any attempts to mislead voters," he said. The Romney campaign declined to comment to the Journal. (Read more)