"One year after Donald Trump’s shocking election upset, many Americans who live in the key counties that propelled him to victory remain unconvinced that the country is better off now that he’s in the White House, a new poll from NBC News and The Wall Street Journal shows," Carrie Dann reports for NBC.
In counties that voted for Barack Obama in 2016 and Trump in 2016, or went for Trump by more than 20 points above their percentage for Mitt Romney, a plurality (41 percent) of voters think the country is worse off now than it was a year ago; 32 percent think it’s better off. Many of the counties are rural.
Perhaps more importantly, 53 percent of voters in these counties say they don't think Trump has a clear agenda on how to address major issues facing the country. And though Trump has a higher approval rating in these "flip" or "surge" counties than in the nation as a whole, his approval appears to be waning.
"Obama-Trump voters represented only about 4 percent of the electorate," James Astill writes in his Lexington column for The Economist. "But
because they were concentrated in the swing states of the industrial Northeast and Midwest, they outweighed Mrs. Clinton’s more modest gains
with groups such as the college-educated whites who migrated from the
Republicans to the Democrats. They are the main reason Mr. Trump won
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the states that sealed his victory."
That's why both parties -- and increasingly, the news media -- are paying attention to rural voters. "In the mid-term elections, the Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to take the House of Representatives, and many of their likeliest gains are in places, such as Iowa and Pennsylvania, thick with Obama-Trump voters," Astill writes. "Democrats are planning a fusillade of messaging on the bread-and-butter economic issues they believe switchers care about most. . . . Some switchers do seem open to persuasion. Almost 30 percent voted for a Democratic House candidate in 2016, which suggests both a residual tie to the party and how singularly Mrs. Clinton was disliked."
It's well-known that economic woes and cultural anxieties helped drive voters to Trump. In his column (published last week), Astill wonders whether Democrats have the wherewithal to assuage flip-voters' worries on that score. It's too soon to tell how the 2018 midterms will fall out, but the pro-Democrat carnage of yesterday's election suggests it's a possibility.
In counties that voted for Barack Obama in 2016 and Trump in 2016, or went for Trump by more than 20 points above their percentage for Mitt Romney, a plurality (41 percent) of voters think the country is worse off now than it was a year ago; 32 percent think it’s better off. Many of the counties are rural.
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| This looks like a story in all the colored counties; click on the image to enlarge it. |
That's why both parties -- and increasingly, the news media -- are paying attention to rural voters. "In the mid-term elections, the Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to take the House of Representatives, and many of their likeliest gains are in places, such as Iowa and Pennsylvania, thick with Obama-Trump voters," Astill writes. "Democrats are planning a fusillade of messaging on the bread-and-butter economic issues they believe switchers care about most. . . . Some switchers do seem open to persuasion. Almost 30 percent voted for a Democratic House candidate in 2016, which suggests both a residual tie to the party and how singularly Mrs. Clinton was disliked."
It's well-known that economic woes and cultural anxieties helped drive voters to Trump. In his column (published last week), Astill wonders whether Democrats have the wherewithal to assuage flip-voters' worries on that score. It's too soon to tell how the 2018 midterms will fall out, but the pro-Democrat carnage of yesterday's election suggests it's a possibility.
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