Democrats see a trade-war opportunity among farmers, but some remain skeptical that many votes are there to get

Mainstream journalists are catching up to cracks in President Trump's support among farmers. Two major news organizations have stories today, and a third has an analysis doubting that the trade war will hurt Trump much among agricultural interests.

Tim Reid and Joseph Ax report for the Reuters wire service, "Seizing on mounting Farm Belt frustration with President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, Democratic rivals are stepping up their push to take back part of rural America, whose overwhelming support for Trump helped propel his upset 2016 election victory."

Alan Rappeport writes for The New York Times, "The predicament of farmers is becoming a political problem for Mr. Trump as he heads into an election year. For months, farmers have remained resolute, continuing to pledge support to a president who says his trade policies will help the agricultural industry win in the end. While there are few signs of an imminent blue wave in farm country, a growing number of farmers say they are losing patience with the president’s approach and are suggesting it will not take much to lose their vote as well. . . . As the trade fight gets uglier, farmers are beginning to panic."

Reuters notes, "Farmers and ethanol producers are also upset with the administration’s latest decision to allow more oil refiners to skirt biofuel laws and use less corn-based ethanol," and says several Democratic presidential candidates have made the two issues "the central plank of their pitches to rural America."

The Times report begins with the Aug. 7 episode in which Minnesota soybean farmers vented to Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue and he responded with a joke that drew boos. Citing a report from the American Farm Bureau Federation, Rappeport notes, "Farm bankruptcy filings in the year through June were up 13 percent from 2018 and loan delinquency rates are on the rise," and adds, "Losing the world’s most populous country as an export market has been a major blow to the agriculture industry. . . . Deere & Co., the maker of agricultural equipment, said this month that it was cutting its profit forecast for the second time this year. The administration has tried to mollify farmers by rolling out two financial aid packages totaling $28 billion." The help has depleted the funds of the federal Commodity Credit Corp., which would require action by Congress to replenish.

Farm Journal surveys in July and August showed Trump's support among 1,100 farmers polled dropped from 79% to 71%, the Times notes. But Greg Sargent writes in his "Plum Line" column for The Washington Post,  "There is likely zero chance that farmers — or rural voters — break with Trump in 2020. Still, this illustrates the limits on Trump’s lying powers: If they stick with Trump, it isn’t because he mesmerized them into ignoring reality; it’s that they still see other reasons for sticking with him. Those are likely rooted in partisanship more than anything else; farmers are overwhelmingly Republican voters."

Nevertheless, Reuters notes, "Even a small erosion in Trump’s support among rural voters could make a difference in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where Trump won by razor-thin margins in 2016, Democratic strategists say."

Sargent adds, "Trump also seems to have zero fear that gaslighting his own constituencies might cost him politically. Why? One possible answer: Fox News. According to indefatigable Fox tracker Matthew Gertz, as of Tuesday morning Fox hadn’t said anything about the report of farmers getting angry at Trump’s agriculture secretary for accusing them of 'whining,' but it did feature a farmer who pledged his undying 'trust' in Trump’s handling of the trade war. . . . It probably won’t be a big story that Trump’s agriculture secretary got booed by farmers for being dismissive of their travails — or that some farmers’ reps don’t like it when Trump lies about their difficulties. . . . Trump frequently makes such claims as 'farmers are starting to do great again'."