Urban residents still fleeing to rural areas to escape virus, data suggests; map has fresh, county-level infection data

Coronavirus infection and deaths by population density as of April 5. (Map by The Daily Yonder)
Click on the image to enlarge it; click here to view the interactive version with county-level data.

With the coronavirus continuing to spread across the United States, data from short-term rental companies offers some evidence that people are continuing to flee to rural areas, even as rural infection rates continue to rise.

"According to a recent study by AirDNA — a company that analyzes real-time rental data from hospitality businesses like Airbnb and Vrbo — there has been a 'mass exodus away from urban centers' in recent weeks," Bethany Biron reports for Business Insider. "Though stay-at-home mandates currently active in most states have discouraged travel unless absolutely necessary, that hasn't stopped many from seeking out safe havens in less populated locales."

Rural areas were among the top spots seeing increased reservations over the past few weeks. Pacific Beach, Washington, topped the list with a 378.7 percent growth rate in reservations from March 9-15 (404 reservations) to March 16-22 (1,934 reservations). Pacific Beach is in Grays Harbor County, which has a population of just over 75,000; it had three confirmed cases as of April 4 and six confirmed cases as of April 6, according to data from USA Facts.

Other rural areas, such as Spicewood, Texas; Ashland, Oregon; and Moab, Utah, were also in the top 11 list, according to the report.

Many communities have shunned visitors to limit the spread of the virus, but the rural infection rate now outstrips the metropolitan infection rate. In the first few days of April, 171 rural counties found their first covid-19 cases. "By Sunday night, April 5, two-thirds of rural counties had at least one case. Just over 200 rural counties have reported a death attributable to covid-19," Bill Bishop reports for The Daily Yonder. Covid-19 caused 80 deaths in rural counties over the weekend.

The official figures are likely lower than the virus's true presence, says a University of Texas study, which estimates a 9% chance of the virus being present even in counties with no reported cases and a 51% change the virus is spreading through the community if it has just one reported case.