States begin once-a-decade redistricting fight after census; local officials have received preliminary figures

With the 2020 census completed except for final figures (many local officials have received preliminary figures for their jurisdictions), statehouses across the nation are about to begin the once-a-decade fight to redraw voting-district lines. "Redistricting debates will heat up in many states as Democrats try to stop Republicans, who control most statehouses, from drawing district lines that would solidify their political power for another decade," Tim Henderson reports for Stateline.

Republican control will likely result in rural areas gaining more electoral power. "In states such as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas that have conservative legislatures and liberal cities, Republicans will try to preserve their majorities by drawing congressional and state legislative districts that favor GOP incumbents and dilute Democratic voting strength," Henderson reports. 

This is likely to be true especially in Southern states, according to Michael Li, a redistricting expert at the Brennan Center for Justice at New York University. "After the red wave in 2011, you had some really aggressive line-drawing in places like Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania," Li said at a recent seminar. "Now I think the hot spots are going to be in the South—North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Texas."

Though federal courts in the past decade have ruled against Republicans in gerrymandering cases, state courts are now the last word, because of a 2019 U.S. Supreme Court ruling, Henderson reports.

Spurred by endless litigation and partisan battles, an increasing number of states are turning toward independent commissions to determine districts fairly. "A total of 19 states now have commissions with input on redistricting, and another five use commissions as a backup if the legislature can’t agree or overcome a veto," Henderson reports.