The Agriculture Department's Economic Research Service will release the first Farm Income Forecast for 2021 on Friday, Feb. 5. That same day, ERS economist Carrie Litkowski will host a webinar at 1 p.m. ET to discuss the contents of the report. Click here to register for the webinar.
The most recently published farm income forecast, in December 2020, noted that net farm income likely rose from 2019 to 2020, but mainly because of direct federal relief. The report also found that farm debt and the average debt-to-asset ratio were increasing, raising concerns about the farming economy's sustainability.
One thing to keep an eye on? Increasing concerns about farm loans. A survey of rural Midwestern bankers in January found that, though their confidence in the economy was increasing, their top worry is lower lending activity. And a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City found that, though the average size of farm loans grew for the last two quarters of 2020, smaller loan volumes were driven by a lower number of new loans to farmers."
The ERS releases the farm income forecast three times a year, usually in February, August and November. From the webinar page: "These core statistical indicators provide guidance to policymakers, lenders, commodity organizations, farmers, and others interested in the financial status of the farm economy. ERS' farm income statistics also inform the computation of agriculture's contribution to the U.S. economy's gross domestic product."
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