Big Western drought is predicted to expand; California farm economy is on the ropes again, raising doubts about future

Seasonal drought outlook for March 17 to June 30, 2022
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration map; click on the image to enlarge it.

As of last week, about 61 percent of the United States was in drought, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said was the most extensive drought seen since 2013. Now NOAA's National Weather Service warns that such conditions will likely persist and expand, especially in the West and High Plains, Andrew Freedman reports for Axios.

"After a winter that featured record rain and snow for December in much of California, then switched to dry conditions since, much of the West is facing the prospect of heading into yet another warm season with precipitation deficits," Freedman reports. Southwest drought is the worst in 1,200 years; lakes Mead and Powell, both critical reservoirs fed by the Colorado River, are at their lowest ever.

In California, which produces a quarter of the nation's food, the fertile San Joaquin Valley may lose at least 535,000 acres of agricultural production by 2040, Scott Wilson reports for The Washington Post: "A survey this month found that the year’s historically dry start has resulted in a snowpack more than 60 percent below average. Not a single major reservoir is filled to its average for this time of year. The whiplash has prompted the federal Central Valley Project, the vast Depression-era system of pumps, aqueducts and reservoirs that provides much of this region’s surface water, to declare a second straight year of no water deliveries. The announcement means farmers across the valley must rely on depleted groundwater supplies and what they have been able to store."

The increasing price and scarcity of water has led farmers to leave much land fallow. Meanwhile, current farming activity is depleting groundwater wells at unsustainable rates, Wilson reports.

"There’s a basic question that we need to address, and that is, do we want to sustain irrigated agriculture in California?" said Tom Birmingham, general manager of the Westlands Water District, which oversees federal water deliveries to more than 700 San Joaquin Valley farms. "If the answer is yes, then we need to determine how we’re going to invest in the infrastructure we need and what policies need to be changed to preserve it," he told Wilson. "If the answer is no, then how are we going to deal with the socio-economic impacts of its elimination?"