New coronavirus cases jumped a record 16% in rural counties last week; see the latest county-level data

Coronavirus red zones, Oct. 4-10. Daily Yonder map;
click the image to enlarge it or click here to view the interactive version.

"Covid-19 continued its record-breaking spread in rural counties last week, climbing by more than 16% over the previous week and placing six out of every 10 rural counties on the red-zone list," Tim Murphy and Tim Marema report for The Daily Yonder. "Just over 71,000 rural Americans tested positive for the novel coronavirus last week, October 4-10, according to a Daily Yonder analysis based on data from USA Facts. The previous week’s revised total was 60,883 new cases."

Another 140 rural counties were placed on the red-zone list last week; the White House Coronavirus Task Force defines red zones as counties with at least 100 new infections per 100,000 people in a week. "Sixty-one percent of the nation’s rural counties are on the red-zone list (1,198 of 1,976 counties). In metropolitan America, about 47% of counties are on the red-zone list (538 of 1,115)," Murphy and Marema report. 

Click here for more detailed regional observations about rural coronavirus trends and an interactive map with the latest county-level data.

Census count can end early, Supreme Court rules

The Supreme Court ruled Tuesday that the Trump administration can halt the 2020 census count early, a decision that could result in hard-to-count populations in rural areas and elsewhere receiving less government funding and Congressional representation. 

"The brief unsigned order formally only pauses the population count while the administration and a host of groups advocating a more accurate census battle in a federal appeals court over whether the count could be stopped early," Adam Liptak and Michael Wines report for The New York Times. "As a practical matter, however, it almost certainly ensures an early end because the census — one of the largest government activities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers — cannot be easily restarted and little time remains before its current deadline at the end of this month. In fact, some census workers say, the bureau had already begun shutting down some parts of its count despite a court order to continue it."

The Trump administration sought to wrap up the count at the end of September, but in late September a federal judge ruled that the count had to continue until the end of October. Rural response to the census has consistently lagged, and as early as mid-April, the Census Bureau begged Congress to extend the deadline to the end of October, Zach Montellaro reports for Politico.

But Congress never granted the extensions, and in early August, Census Bureau director Steven Dillingham, a Trump appointee, announced it would withdraw its request for an extension and deliver the results to Trump by the end of 2020 (a decision that came from outside the bureau, according to the Commerce Department's inspector general).

USDA to extend free school-meal waivers through June

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Friday that it will extend regulatory waivers that allow schools to serve free meals until the end of the school year in June.

"The department is allowing the Summer Food Service Program and Seamless Summer Options to continue through June 30, 2021, essentially letting school cafeterias serve any student for free without checking their qualifications for free or subsidized meals," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Weekly Agriculture. "They also have more flexibility to meet nutritional standards and other requirements."

After bipartisan pressure, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue agreed in August to extend the programs through the end of 2020, but said the USDA couldn't go any further without more funding, McCrimmon reports. So Congress gave the USDA the authority and funding to extend the waivers in a recent spending bill.

However, "despite the flexibility provided by USDA for months, there’s been a notable drop in the number of meals served to students, and the School Nutrition Association says Congress still must allocate more money for the feeding programs," McCrimmon reports.

U.S. Postal Service is a rural lifeline in jeopardy

The post office in Seco, in far southeastern Kentucky, is open two hours a day. It's one of thousands of rural USPS locations that has cut hours to reduce costs. (National Geographic photo)

"Rural post offices and mail carriers connect our smallest towns to the world and provide a sense of community. But a burdensome financial structure, and lack of federal aid amid a pandemic, threaten their future," Sarah Smarsh reports for National Geographic. 

In addition to adeptly summarizing the necessity of the U.S. Postal Service to rural Americans and threats it faces (such as urbanization and privatization), Smarsh's photo-rich piece recounts her childhood in rural Kansas and what the mail meant for her and her family. Read more here.

Trump administration sends record subsidies to farmers

Federal payments to farmers are projected to hit a record $46 billion this year as the White House funnels money to Trump’s rural base in the South and Midwest ahead of Election Day," Alan Rappeport reports for The New York Times. "The gush of funds has accelerated in recent weeks as the president looks to help his core supporters who have been hit hard by the double whammy of his combative trade practices and the coronavirus pandemic."

The American Farm Bureau Federation forecasts debt in the farm sector to increase by 4 percent to a record $434 billion this year; meanwhile, farm bankruptcies have continued to rise.

Farmers had already been receiving large amounts of government aid. For the past two years in a row, direct federal aid has been the single largest source of income for farmers, accounting for nearly a quarter of farm income, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. 

Harvest a particularly dangerous time of year for drivers on rural roads; follow safety tips

"Harvest is a high-risk time for crashes on public roads. The sun sets earlier each night and slow-moving farm equipment may not be well-marked or visible, sometimes lacking lights and reflective tape. Speed adds to the danger for motorists and farmers. Additionally, as ownership of agricultural land continues to consolidate, farmers are on the road more hours and driving equipment longer distances, towing implements and products between field and farmstead," according to the National Children's Center for Rural and Agricultural Health and Safety.

Farm equipment collisions with motor vehicles on public roads have caused at least 240 deaths and 135 non-fatal injuries since 2015, according to the AgInjuryNews.org database (which is thorough, but not exhaustive, so the total is likely higher).

Read here for tips on how to stay safe on the roads this time of year.

Mining companies pivot from thermal coal as utilities seek other energy sources

With cheaper and greener energy sources widely available, American utilities are moving away from using coal to generate electricity. So, many mining companies are pivoting away from thermal coal.

For instance, "activist investors are urging Contura Energy Inc. to accelerate its plan to get out of mining thermal coal for power plants, to focus instead on the more lucrative type that’s used to make steel. And Arch Resources Inc. is seeking to shed its thermal assets to also concentrate on metallurgical coal, after an effort to shift them to a joint venture was blocked last week," Will Wade reports for Bloomberg.

"Thermal coal demand in the U.S. has been sliding steadily for years," Wade notes. "Power plants are expected to burn about 433 million tons this year, less than half of what they needed a decade ago, and down 20% from 2019, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, global steel production, the driver for met coal demand, has been climbing steadily since April."

The Trump administration has gone to great lengths to keep thermal coal viable, as shown by documents that detail the administration's failed efforts to save the Navajo Generating Station in rural Arizona, the largest coal-burning power plant in the Western U.S., Eric Lipton reports for The New York Times.

Poor rural broadband access, faulty FCC data maps, limit federal telehealth plan's potential to help

"With the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services rolling out its Rural Action Plan last week, there has been much focus on the implementation of telehealth as a solution to rural health care," Liz Carey reports for The Daily Yonder. But lack of broadband access limits the $30 million plan's potential to help.

"While telehealth was gaining ground in some areas before the pandemic, it exploded in the months following the start of the pandemic. Since then, all eyes have turned to telehealth visits as a way to solve the problem of dwindling numbers of healthcare workers in rural areas and to bring specialty providers to rural areas," Carey reports. "But some rural officials argue telehealth isn’t much of a solution if rural residents don’t have access to the broadband internet services that their urban counterparts do. While government officials and companies throw equipment and money into telehealth, what’s really needed rural officials say, is rollout of rural broadband infrastructure."

There are three major obstacles to telehealth access, according to Kyle Kopko, director for The Center for Rural Pennsylvania. The first is getting access to the technology, like smartphones or tablets, he told Carey. Having consistent broadband access and being able to afford to pay for it are the other two. 

Another problem, he told Carey, is that the Federal Communications Commission falsely says that 98 percent of the nation has access to broadband. "In fact, a study on broadband availability in Pennsylvania by researchers at Penn State, released in 2019, found that while the FCC says that 100 percent of Pennsylvania has access to broadband connectivity, zero counties in the state (yes, zero) had reliable and consistent broadband access for at least half of their residents," Carey reports.

"Other roadblocks to getting more widespread broadband access include state laws that prohibit municipalities from operating or installing broadband," Carey reports. "According to BroadbandNow, an internet service that helps consumer find and compare Internet service providers, more than 20 states have laws banning municipal broadband."

Thursday webinar to discuss managing the trauma that comes from reporting on trauma

At 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 15, the Pennsylvania News Media Association will host a free one-hour webinar on how journalists can effectively manage the trauma that comes from reporting on traumatic events. 

From the website: "Reporting on traumatic events has become an all-too-familiar responsibility for editorial teams. Just as first responders need to be aware of the effects their work on the front line brings to them as individuals, so must the journalists who report on stressful and tragic situations . . . We will provide essential tips for reporters to ensure your own physical and emotional well-being as it relates to performing the duties of your job. We'll also include information about mental health and provide coping strategies as well as details about support groups, both externally and within your own media organization."

Though the webinar is free, pre-registration is required. Click here for more information or to register.

Weekly fact check: 'Russia hoax' claims revived; how racist, sexist attacks about Kamala Harris proliferate online

Citing unverified "Russian intelligence," President Trump and many supporters are reviving claims that Hillary Clinton was responsible for the investigation into Russia's involvement with the 2016 election. "But that so-called intelligence is largely a reflection of publicly available information at the time. Federal investigations since then have documented multiple links between Trump associates and individuals tied to the Russian government," FactCheck.org reports.

"On the subject of President Donald Trump’s covid-19 diagnosis, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden misquoted Trump as saying, 'I probably got it from Blue Star parents.' That’s not what Trump said," FactCheck reports. In an Oct. 8 interview on Fox News, Trump said he always assumed he might get infected because, as president, he must often meet with people and can't always remain social distant. He cited as an example a Sept. 27 White House reception for the families of soldiers who died in action. "I met with Gold Star families. I didn’t want to cancel that," Trump said. "But they all came in and they all talked about their son and daughter and father. And they all came up to me and they tell me a story . . . And they tell me these stories and I can’t say, 'Back up, stand 10 feet.' I just can’t do it."

Sen. Kamala Harris, Biden's running mate, has been increasingly the target of racist, sexist attacks on social media, Karen Tumulty, Kate Woodsome, and Sergio Peçanha report for The Washington Post. Their report digs into how and why such rumors are spreading online.

Confidential data shows thousands of undisclosed coronavirus cases in Illinois at schools, prisons, meatpacking plants and more

"Newly obtained confidential statewide data shows that coronavirus outbreaks in workplaces, schools and prisons are driving Illinois’ rising cases — and many of these outbreaks have never been made public," according to a joint investigation by Georgia Gee with Columbia University's Stabile Center for Investigative Journalism, Derek Kravitz with Columbia's Brown Institute for Media Innovation, and Sky Chadde with the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting. 

State health officials said they refused to release the locations of many outbreaks because of state and federal laws meant to protect the identity of infected people. The same thing could be happening in other states.

Columbia's Documenting Covid-19 project and the Midwest Center obtained the internal data from the state health department, which covered four days between July and September, as part of an open-records request. The data gives detailed information and case counts for nearly 2,600 separate cases across the state. Federal, state and county prisons and jails are the single largest source of infections. That's largely driven by the Cook County Jail in Chicago, but there have been significant outbreaks at other prisons in rural areas such as Robinson Correctional Center in Crawford, Gee, Kravitz and Chadde report. Such outbreaks brought the total of prison cases to at least 3,500 as of Sept. 30—nearly double the figure reported by the Marshall Project and The Associated Press.

County election officials on the front line against voter fraud

Many Republican officials, led by President Trump, have voiced concerns that mail-in voting is ripe for fraud. But a new article from Carolina Public Press shows how county election workers in North Carolina process each ballot, and how they safeguard against fraud. Similar pieces could be educational for readers in other states. 

North Carolina readers may have more reason for concern about voter fraud than the average American: the state did have a fraudulent voting scheme recently. "In 2018, a team of operatives for the Republican candidate in the 9th Congressional District collected, paid for and, in some cases, tampered with the ballots of more than 1,000 voters," Victoria Loe Hicks reports. "The scheme failed because of anomalies in the vote tallies: The GOP candidate won by preposterous margins in some of the precincts involved. That raised red flags that something was amiss, and, after a monthslong investigation and dramatic hearings," the state election board ordered a new election. 

Study shows how rural small businesses' proximity to each other in town helps them weather the pandemic

The pandemic has hurt many small businesses and local economies, especially in rural areas. But relief is slower to reach rural businesses. So the Brookings Institution's Bass Center for Transformative Placemaking and the National Main Street Center studied how small businesses' proximity to each other in a commercial corridor, or shopping district, could help them survive, Michael Powe and Hanna Love report for the Brookings Institution.

"The benefits of urban downtowns are well documented, as density and proximity to people, jobs, and amenities can help fuel population and economic growth. And although NMSC has long touted the similar benefits of revitalizing downtowns in rural communities, the advantages of rural downtowns are not as widely documented," Powe and Love report. "Now, understanding these dynamics is more imperative than ever. The pandemic is putting rural downtowns—many of which are still struggling to recover from the last recession—in an increasingly precarious economic position due to their heavy reliance on retail and restaurants, as well as their limited access to the capital and broadband infrastructure small businesses now need to survive."

The Bass Center and NMSC recently conducted a survey of small businesses that netted more than 2,000 respondents, many in rural areas. They asked about the businesses' physical proximity to other businesses and how the pandemic has affected their bottom lines. "Regardless of location, small business owners reported acute economic hardship, with many drawing on personal savings, retirement accounts, and personal assets to cover their operating costs through the crisis," Powe and Love report. 

But proximity and density made a difference. In nearly every circumstance, small businesses in older commercial corridors and Main Streets—with proximity to other businesses, resources, and amenities—were more likely to leverage their physical location to withstand the crisis than businesses in other locations," Powe and Love report. "Prior to the pandemic, during stay-at-home orders, and at present, small businesses in commercial corridors and Main Streets more often used their locations to coordinate with other nearby businesses, collaborate with business associations, adapt operations, and attract people visiting other nearby businesses or tourist attractions."

Trump leads among rural voters by 24 points, says Pew poll that also finds deep division between the two sides

For a larger version of the chart, click on it.

President Trump leads Democratic nominee Joe Biden among registered voters in rural areas, 59 percent to 35 percent, according to a new poll by the highly respected, nonpartisan Pew Research Center. Biden leads among suburban voters, 51 to 43, and among urbanites 70-25. Overall, he leads 52-42.

Trump's handling of the pandemic appears to have helped Biden; 57% of voters "say they are very or somewhat confident in Biden to handle the public health impact of the coronavirus, while 40% express a similar level of confidence in Trump," Pew reports. In June, Biden held a narrower, 11-percentage-point lead on handling the coronavirus outbreak (52% Biden, 41% Trump).

The poll starkly demonstrates a deep divide. "Fully 89% of Trump supporters say that if Biden wins, they not only would be very concerned over the country’s direction, they believe it would lead to “lasting harm” for the country. A nearly identical majority of Biden supporters (90%) say Trump’s election would result in lasting harm to the United States."

Pew notes, "The survey was in the field when Trump announced on Twitter, early on the morning of Oct. 2, that he and first lady Melania Trump had contracted covid-19. There are no significant differences in voter preferences, or in confidence in the two candidates to handle the impact of the coronavirus, before and after his announcement."

UPDATE, Oct. 11: A new ABC News-Washington Post poll taken Oct. 6-9 has Trump ahead among rural likely voters, 58% to 38%. Biden leads in the suburbs, 53-44, largely on the strength of a big gender gap; among suburban women, he leads 62-34; among suburban men, Trump leads 54-43. The poll did not break down rural voters by sex, probably due to the relatively small rural sample.

New study details rural-urban divide in gun suicides

"A new study shows rural congressional districts have far higher suicide rates than urban ones and that firearms are a major factor," Heath Druzin reports for Guns and America. "The study from gun control advocacy group Everytown For Gun Safety underscores a rural-urban divide exacerbated by uneven access to mental health care and the relationship between access to firearms and suicide rates."

Suicide accounts for most gun deaths in this country, and firearms are the most common way for people to die by suicide. According to the latest figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, more than 24,000 Americans died from firearm suicide in 2018, Druzin reports.

"The difference in suicide rates between rural and urban areas has grown over the last two decades, according to a 2018 CDC study," Druzin reports. "What is unique about the Everytown study is that it examines suicide rates by congressional district. The highest rates were in districts with large rural populations in the West and South."

Upper Midwest leads in new rural coronavirus infections

New coronavirus-infection rates in nonmetropolitan counties, Sept. 27-Oct. 3.
Daily Yonder map; click here for the interactive version.

The coronavirus is spreading rapidly in the Upper Midwest, where high rates of new infections are the norm in most rural counties. More than 90 percent of rural counties in Wisconsin, South Dakota, and North Dakota have troublesome levels of new infections, according to a Daily Yonder analysis. Iowa has 66 of its 78 rural counties (or 85%) with high rates of infection. Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, and Minnesota each has high rates of infection in two-thirds of their rural counties," Tim Murphy and Tim Marema report for The Daily Yonder. "Those rural counties are on the Daily Yonder’s red-zone list. The red-zone is a White House Coronavirus Task Force designation that identifies localities that need to do more to control the virus. Red-zone counties have infection rates of 100 more new cases per 100,000 over a seven-day period." Read here for more, including an interactive map with state data.

Two books out this year feature great rural journalism on the opioid epidemic and unsolved murders of the civil-rights era

As the days shorten, it's a good time to curl up with a book. Poynter's Kristen Hare reviews two for your consideration, both with lots of rural reporting.

Jerry Mitchell's Race Against Time chronicles how the Mississippi reporter's reporting years ago "helped revive civil-rights cold cases and put proud members of the KKK behind bars. The book deals with our country’s racist, murderous past, but also feels very relevant right now," Hare writes. After a long career at the Jackson Clarion-Ledger, founded the Mississippi Center for Investigative Reporting in 2018. He won a MacArthur Foundation "genius grant" in 2009.

From the editor's note: "For the past 30 years, Mitchell has devoted his career to reopening unsolved cold cases in from civil rights era. His work on multiple landmark cases — the assassination of Medgar Evers, the Mississippi Burning murders, the bombing of the Sixteenth Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, and the firebombing of Vernon Dahmer — has helped put killers from the Ku Klux Klan behind bars for life, decades after they thought they had gotten away with murder."

In the second book, Death in Mud Lick, Pulitzer-Prize winning former Charleston Gazette-Mail reporter Eric Eyre takes a deep dive into the opioid epidemic in a small West Virginia town, detailing one woman's fight to seek accountability from major pharmaceutical companies after her brother's overdose death.

The same day his book came out, Eyre resigned from the paper to deal with his advancing Parkinson's disease. Nevertheless, he has waded back into the fray: He's one of the the co-founders of the new Mountain State Spotlight. In a recent newsletter to readers, Eyre wrote: "The story is far from over. (Looks as if I’ll be adding an epilogue to the epilogue by the time the paperback comes out next year.) A bellwether trial to hold giant companies accountable for the opioid crisis is scheduled to start Oct. 19 in Charleston. I’ll be covering the trial or potential settlement for Mountain State Spotlight, a new nonprofit investigative news outlet in WV."

States allowing online driver-license renewals, written tests

The pandemic has prompted many states to allow online renewals of driver and motor-vehicle licenses, and now some are even allowing driver-licensing tests to go online, another boon for rural residents in states where the licensing function is regionalized and requires out-of-county travel.

"Prospective drivers in Minnesota can go online at home to take their knowledge tests for a learner's permit," which is required before a road test for a license, which must still be done in person, Kate Elizabeth Queram reports for Route Fifty. "Test takers can’t consult manuals or online resources, and the test will close and record an automatic failure if another browser window is opened during the 30-minute window. Proctors are required to check a box before the test launches pledging that they won’t allow the use of other study materials, though that will be entirely on the honor system."

Queram notes similar measures in other states: states "Wisconsin and North Carolina, allowed certain teenage drivers to apply for a waiver for the road test. Georgia implemented a similar policy in April, but amended it a month later to require a modified road test instead. Others, including California and Massachusetts, extended the expiration dates for learner's permits, allowing teens to continue practicing their driving until road tests resumed."

Quick hits: EPA weighs ban of chlorpyrifos pesticide; scientists say invasive insects could increase 36% by 2050

Here's a roundup of stories with rural resonance; if you do or see similar work that should be shared on The Rural Blog, email us at heather.chapman@uky.edu.

Non-native insect invasions are projected to increase by 36% between 2005 and 2050, an international team of scientists predicts. Read more here.

The Environmental Protection Agency is weighing whether to ban chlorpyrifos, a pesticide linked to brain damage in children, but says science that finds it dangerous is inconclusive. Read more here.

A new book chronicles the forces that shape agriculture in the era of climate change. Read more here.

A church leader writes about how to respond when a fellow Christian turns to him for help with an opioid addiction. Read more here.

Can Minn. model for helping stressed farmers be replicated?

Ted Matthews talks to a client. (MCIR photo by Thomas Gauvain)

Farmers are among the most likely to die by suicide, compared to other occupations; that includes hundreds in Midwestern states in the past few years. But Minnesota has a program deemed so successful that other states are calling to seek advice on replicating it. At the center of it all is Ted Matthews at the Rural Mental Health Outreach Program, who has been the "go-to counselor for Minnesota farmers for decades," Marissa Plescia reports for the Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting.

Matthews "takes calls at all hours, including weekends, though he said he’s so passionate for the work that he barely notices the hours he puts in," Plescia reports. "Handling the growing number of farmers who seek counseling as climate change and trade wars uproot their lives requires working around the clock, he said."

Matthews has a matter-of-fact approach that people say they appreciate. After Pam Uhlenkamp separated from her husband earlier this year, she called Matthews right away, Plescia reports. Uhlenkamp remembers that he told her in their first sesssion: "Today sucks. Tomorrow is going to suck. The next three weeks are going to suck."

"He was very honest with me," Uhlenkamp told Plescia. "Sometimes in life you kind of need the two-by-four across the head that says, 'Yep, this is awful and this is the reality'."

The story is part of a yearlong project exploring the ways farmers and farming communities tackle mental health and is supported with a grant from the Solutions Journalism Network.