A $700 million regenerative farming pilot program may falter without the needed USDA staff and expertise

Clover is a "workhorse" cover crop used in regenerative
farming. (Photo by Veronica White, Unsplash)

Despite a $700 million budget and farmers excited about the program, the Regenerative Agriculture Initiative may have trouble getting off the ground. "The USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service has lost more than 2,000 employees since January 2025, potentially harming the department’s ability to roll out the initiative," reports Claire Carlson of The Daily Yonder.

The initiative was announced last December as a joint effort by the USDA and the Department of Health and Human Services to help farmers incorporate more regenerative farming practices, such as cover crops and no-till farming.

For the most part, the Trump administration's NRCS layoffs mostly terminated newer or early-career employees, who "are the employees who would have likely helped with the rollout of the Regenerative Agriculture Initiative," Carlson reports. "Without the necessary staffing, the initiative could falter — even though it’s likely to be very popular among farmers."

At its current staffing levels, the NRCS doesn't have enough employees to help farmers through the application and award process, and it may lack personnel with the right expertise, Carlson reports. 

When the Regenerative Agriculture Initiative was announced, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy,Jr. and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz issued a shared press release extolling the need for "American farmers [to] adopt practices that improve soil health, enhance water quality, and boost long-term productivity, all while strengthening America’s food and fiber supply."

It's unclear how American farmers can meet those goals without the necessary USDA staff at the Natural Resources Conservation Service to support farmers who want to participate in RAI. Carlson adds, "For farmers planning to apply for funds through the initiative, it’s quite possible their questions to the agency will go unanswered with fewer people on the job to assist."

A 'Mafia' outfit centered on growing more American oats

Oats used by most American cereal brands are sourced from
Canada. (Graphic by Adam Dixon, Offrange)

Over the past several decades, the acres of oats American farmers have produced have dipped dramatically. The USDA doesn't heavily subsidize oat crops like it does corn and soybeans, and most oats used in the U.S. are sourced from Canada. However, a "growing group of more than 100 Midwestern farmers is trying to bring it back," reports Aimee Rawlins for Offrange.

Back in 2018, Martin Larsen, a fifth-generation farmer in Minnesota, looked at his crops and thought oats would be good for his soil, and the rising popularity of oat milk could help his bottom line, Rawlins writes.

Larsen convinced other Minnesota farmers to add oats to their rotation. The group struggled to find mills and break into the supply chain. Rawlings writes, "But Larsen and his fellow farmers weren’t deterred. Instead, they coined a name for their group: the Oat Mafia. They decided to create a supply chain — and, eventually, a mill — of their own."

Part of the reason Oat Mafia farmers have persisted is that oat crops do soil systems a world of good, including removing nitrogen that "might otherwise leach into groundwater," Rawlings explains. "And when added to a corn-soy rotation, oats help break pest cycles, reduce disease pressure, and curb resistant weeds." Oats also thrive during severe droughts.

The group's persistence has paid off. "Today, the Oat Mafia has around 125 farmers with 50,000 acres of tillable land and about 6,000 acres of oats, said Larsen, who started with just seven acres and now grows 500," Rawlings writes.

The group is investing in building their own mill to avoid milling entanglements, and Larsen is spending more time promoting oats to other farmers as a financially manageable addition to crop rotations. Rawlings reports, "He aims to be a resource for other farmers who aren’t sure where to start, offering advice on everything from what varieties to plant and how many oats per acre, to how much fertilizer to use and how to combine them."

The 'demise' of plow-based farming is coming as farmers use healthier ways to grow food

Jesse Stubs plowing, prepares soil to plant corn on newly-terraced land in Flint River Farms, Ga.,
in May 1939. (Marion Post Wolcott, Library of Congress Prints &Photos via the Post)

The enduring match of farms and plows seems destined for a breakup as more farmers incorporate no-till farming practices. "The demise of the plow and other tools that turn the soil is a rare good-news story in these depressing times for Planet Earth," writes Dana Milbank in his Washington Post opinion. "Modern, mechanized tillage [is] an ecological disaster, killing all that was alive in the soil while worsening erosion and runoff."

Over the past five decades, farmers realized how much harm tilling was doing and began to step away from their plows. Milbank explains, "In 1973, 82.2% of U.S. cropland was managed by conventional tillage, and only 2% was managed by 'no-till' methods, with the remaining 15.8% using reduced tillage. Half a century later, only 27% of U.S. cropland uses conventional tillage, with 38% now using no-till and 35% using reduced tillage."

Part of the shift to no-till includes a change in farming culture. Milbank adds, "If Big Ag destroyed the soil with its heavy use of chemicals and monster tilling equipment, the new agriculture is about building soil health so that it can nurture as it once did." The no-till resurgence takes its lessons from "traditional farming methods that existed for centuries before chemical fertilizers and pesticides. . . . and newer technologies, such as drilling seeds into the soil to preserve the soil’s structure."

John Piotti, head of the American Farmland Trust, which has been working on regenerative practices with big and small farmers and food companies including Land O’Lakes and General Mills, told Milbank, "It’s a very good trend — an excellent trend . . . . It’s really about whether we’re going to have a planet we can live on.”

Will this winter be as mild as last winter? Experts give national 2024-2025 outlook predictions.

The 2024-2025 winter outlook map shows the greatest chances for cooler conditions
in the Pacific Northwest. (NOAA map via Dovers)

In most parts of the country, last year's winter was mild. So mild, in fact, Wisconsin snowmobile enthusiasts dubbed it the "lost winter" because there was so little snowfall, reports Cheyenne Kramer of Drovers. "But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different."

Snodgrass believes that "this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south," Kramer adds. "Department of Agriculture meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events."

One of the gains agribusiness advocates hope to see this winter is enough moisture to balance regional droughts. Snodgrass told Kramer, "The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in. If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 winter outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions
likely across the Great Lakes region (NOAA map via Drovers)

The increase in droughts across southern U.S. tiers is worrisome, and this winter may not improve that problem. Northern areas are predicted to receive more moisture. Rippey told Kramer, "While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought. . . . We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States. . . . That does include important winter wheat production areas in the southern Great Plains. There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture."

If rain and snowfall are to help drought regions, timing is everything. Rippey told Kramer, "It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold. When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils." Kramer adds, "the timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well."

Carbon sequestering by farmers has potential, but might not be the 'pie-in-the-sky-dream' many thought it could be

Successful Farming photo

Even with no-till and cover crop practices, carbon sequestering may not be the panacea many claimed it was, reports Laurie Bedlord of Successful Farming. "Much fanfare accompanies programs that pay farmers to sequester greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in their soils. Yet, questions linger as research casts doubt on whether the promise equals reality."

Gregg Sanford, a senior scientist at the Department of Agronomy at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Bedlord, "I worry that we are selling ourselves a pie-in-the-sky dream we might not realize, and that it could come back to bite farmers and ultimately not get us any further down the road toward reducing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere." In 2009, Sanford started analyzing soil samples from different crops and found "across the board" soil carbon loss. Bedlord reports, "It is only in their grassland systems, whether it's rotation-ally grazed pasture, CRP, or prairie, where they can document carbon sequestration in the surface soils. However, Sanford says that in many cases, they are still observing losses of carbon at depth."

Soil carbon sequestration remains unpredictable, so researchers suggest farmers target its use. Bedlord reports, "One of the caveats with soil carbon sequestration, Sanford says, is there are places in the United States where certain types of ag management will be able to build soil carbon resources, but results may vary." 

For soil carbon resources to increase, an agricultural transformation may need to happen, and natural processes in the Midwest could show how. Sanford told Bedlord, "The area in the U.S. we now call the Corn Belt was once almost entirely covered by tallgrass prairie with deep-rooted perennial plants, grazing animals, and regular fires. Over thousands of years, the prairies created the fertile, carbon-rich soils . . . . It took a long time for those deep-rooted, diverse, and perennial prairies to accumulate that soil carbon." Bedlord reports, "If the prairies built these soils, should we consider emulating what they can do in our production systems? It's a question Sanford and others are asking. . . . As with any new concept, healthy skepticism about soil's ability to sequester carbon is a good thing."

To get more information about farmers' opinions and experiences with carbon programs, click here.