Sunday, November 13, 2016

Ag-policy editor's remarks about media depiction of rural voters sting panelists on 'Meet the Press'

Chris Clayton on MSNBC
Donald Trump's 2-to-1 margin in rural America may have been bolstered by resentment at repeated references in the news media to Trump's popularity among both rural and lesser-educated voters, said Chris Clayton, agricultural policy editor for DTN/The Progressive Farmer. Chuck Todd of NBC News interviewed Clayton for MSNBC, and played part of the interview Sunday on "Meet the Press."

"Every time you heard about these polls, you had heard that educated white voters were going for Clinton, while people without college degrees or had no college, supported Trump," Clayton said. "I think they took some of these things that were said over and over throughout the last four, five months of the campaign, also very personally themselves. ... Rural America is not uneducated, even though maybe there are fewer people with college degrees than there might be in the metropolitan areas."

Todd said Clayton's observation "stung me because I, when we would say these things, it was an academic exercise. But the minute he said it, I was, like, 'Oh, my, my late father would've kicked me in the rear for that.'"

Moderately conservative New York Times columnist David Brooks, on Todd's panel, said he had a "mea culpa" watching Clayton because while "people with college degrees voted very differently than people with, with high school degrees, but when you say it, when you actually don't have a college degree, you hear, 'Oh, they think I'm stupid.' I'm guilty of that because I use that shorthand too. And you saw so much sense of moral injury when you went around the Trump world."

Brooks said Trump voters told him, "I used to have a code of respectability, and those people are trying to take it away." He said he heard lots of complaints in middle America about being referred to by coastal elites as "flyover country." Katty Kay of BBC said, "The skepticism that has grown up about elites is totally justified." A transcript of the interview is here.

In the MSNBC interview with Todd and other journalists, Clayton said rural voters have long been reluctant to embrace Clinton. He noted that she lost the Iowa caucuses to Obama in 2008, and barely won them over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders this year: "I just don't think she was able to catch on and communicate with your average rural worker or farmer."

In response to a question from Chris Cilizza of The Washington Post, Clayton said race wasn't an issue with rural voters in the Midwest (he noted that Obama carried Iowa twice) but immigration was a huge issue: "People are concerned that they're losing their culture, somewhat."

Asked why Clinton did so much more poorly in Iowa than Obama did in 2012, Clayton said the farm economy was much better four years ago: "We've seen about two years now where commodity prices have continued to slip. The farmers are really tight on working capital and cash. . . . They were just not as willing to give a chance to a Democrat this time around."

Also, regulatory issues also cut against Clinton, especially the Environmental Protection Agency's new definition of "waters of the United States" under the Clean Water Act. "Every farm group in the country, liberal and conservative, have really hammered on this issue; they want to get rid of it, they're terrified of it," Clayton said. Trump said he would abolish the rule, and "That really drove them to Trump in a big way."


Central Appalachian coalfield voters explain votes for Trump; some are skeptical he can help

Sign in McDowell County, W.Va. (CBS)
With Donald Trump's rural landslide being one of the difference-makers in Tuesday's election, major news outlets dispatched reporters to rural areas to explain their voting to the rest of the nation. Ted Koppel, senior correspondent for "Sunday Morning" on CBS, and Gregory Schneider of The Washington Post both went to the depressed Central Appalachian coalfield.

Koppel went to McDowell County, West Virginia, which Trump carried almost 4 to 1. Sheriff Martin West, a former miner, told him, “I think he can help us. . . . The people is counting on that in order to feed their family, to pay their bills and obey the regulations that we have. But they keep putting more regulations upon us.” Trump pledged to bring back coal jobs but didn't say how.

Another former miner, African American Leroy Johnson, said he voted for Hillary Clinton “because she was more experienced and she was talking about more of the policies that we need, and the things that we need to work on. Donald wasn’t talking that. He was just throwing words out there, giving people what they wanted to hear. And I didn’t think that was right.” But an unnamed Trump supporter told Koppel “I think he can do anything he said he could do. He’s that good.” (Read more)

Schneider went to Coeburn and Lebanon, Va., whose counties gave Trump 80 and 78 percent of their votes. Juan Lopez, 42, said he came from Mexico to the U.S. in 1991, became a citizen and had two children. He works for a company that hauls coal but has idled most of its trucks, and said he voted for Trump to keep his job. “They say if Trump can do it better [with the coal industry], we might be able to have jobs two or three more years. But if not, we might be out by the end of next year.”

But there was much doubt from retired miner William Sisk, 78, of Buchanan County, which gave Trump the highest share of vote in any county during the primaries, 91 percent. “A lot of people talk about Obama’s war on coal, but the coal war was on long before Obama got there. The bottom dropped plum out when he got in there and he got all the blame for it. But I don’t think it’s ever going to come back.” Sisk said he didn't vote, saying of Trump, “He’s too radical. He promised too much. You can promise anything, but you got to deliver.” (Read more)

Farm lobbies have many questions about a Trump administration

"Exactly how President-elect Donald Trump's policies will affect agriculture remains virtually unknown, a group of panelists said at the National Association of Farm Broadcasting annual convention here the morning after Election Day," Todd Neeley reports for DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

The many questions to be answered include "who will be the next secretary of agriculture, what happens with the next Farm Bill, the fate of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and trade policy in general, the repeal and replacement of Obamacare, and the fate of the waters of the United States" rule under the Clean Water Act, Neeley writes.

"Roger Johnson, president of the National Farmers Union, said when it's all said and done, he believes trade issues will be what carried the day for Trump in rural America. "Fundamentally, Trump has antipathy for trade agreements. We think we've done not a very good job with these trade agreements. I would say a lot of agriculture and farmers are in support of TPP, but that's not necessarily so for others in rural areas."

Bob Young, chief economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, said "I think there's a great deal of optimism at this stage in agriculture with one-party control in Washington. A fair amount of stuff can be done administratively. We hope some administrative action can get some common sense reinstated on how regulations are drafted."

Jon Doggett, executive vice president of the National Corn Growers Association, "said rural America's support of Trump should be a wakeup call to so-called elitists in Washington," Neeley reports, quoting him: "I realize there are a lot of people in this country who are in peril, feel we ignore the concerns people have toward government and institutions," he said. "Agriculture needs to be a part of that. The voters have spoken. We need to start reaching out to one another. Nothing's going to happen if we can't resolve issues."

Friday, November 11, 2016

Appalachian coal production, overall coal jobs, at lowest levels on record, says EIA report

Coal production in the U.S. has reached its lowest level since 1986, according to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The region hit the hardest is Appalachia, where production is at its lowest level since 1978, the year EIA began collecting data, Jodi Delapaz reports for Agri-Pulse.

Coal production in 2015 was down 10.3 percent from 2014, Delapaz writes. In Appalachia it fell 17.3 percent, largely because of a 20.6 decline in Kentucky and a 14.8 percent decline in West Virginia. The Western Region, which accounted for 56.6 percent of total U.S. coal production in 2015, was down 6.5 percent from 2014. "The number of the nation's producing mines fell 13 percent to 853 mines, EIA says. And overall productivity capacity decreased for the fourth year in a row."

Overall employment dropped 12 percent, to 65,971 workers, the lowest on EIA record, the report found. The average number of employees at underground mines fell by 13.6 percent and at surface mines by 9.3 percent. Employment in Kentucky dropped 17 percent, a decrease of 2,840 employees, and employment in West Virginia dropped 15.5 percent, a loss of 2,013 emloyees. (EIA graphic: Average number of employees by mine type)

While Appalachian coal advocates rejoice Trump victory, experts doubt industry can be revived

Donald Trump campaigned with leaders of the
West Virginia Coal Association in May in Charleston.
(Gazette photo by Christian Tyler Randolph)
Donald Trump's promise to slash environmental regulations and revive coal has coal advocates in Appalachia celebrating his victory, Ken Ward reports for the Charleston Gazette-Mail. The National Mining Association, industry group Friends of Coal and Murray Energy CEO Bob Murray, one of the most outspoken critics of President Obama's Clean Power plan, have all publicly congratulated Trump.

While the coal industry was rejoicing "economic experts remained skeptical that Trump can really bring back a significant number of mining jobs lost largely to competition with low-priced natural gas," Ward writes. James Van Nostrand, director of the Center for Energy and Sustainable Development at the West Virginia University College of Law, told Ward, “In my view, the election is not going to have much impact on the prospects for the coal industry in West Virginia going forward. Environmental regulations were not significant drivers in the decline of the industry, and scaling them back is not going to revive it.”

UPDATE: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said Friday, "We are going to be presenting to the president a variety of options that could end this assault. Whether that immediately brings business back, that's hard to tell because this is a private sector activity."

Ward writes, "While the industry’s 'war on coal' campaign has focused on Obama’s environmental rules, most experts have said that cheap natural gas has played a larger role. In West Virginia, the mining out of easier-to-get coal seams in the southern part of the state and competition from other coal basins in Wyoming and Illinois have helped drive the mining downturn."

Ted Boettner, executive director of the progressive West Virginia Center for Budget and Policy, "said the state’s coal industry is likely to continue to decline, unless Trump or the state Legislature decide to ban hydraulic fracturing for natural gas or 'crack down on renewable energy,'" Ward writes. Boettner also said Trump's victory could hurt legislative efforts to increase federal aid for economic diversification, cleaning up abandoned mine sites and providing financial stability to the pension funds covering tens of thousands of union coal miners.

Presidential election highlights growing rural-urban gap among Republicans and Democrats

The rural/urban gap widened in this year's presidential election among Republican and Democratic voters, Bill Bishop and Tim Marema report for the Daily Yonder. Republican president-elect Donald Trump won 65.9 percent of rural votes on Tuesday, compared to 60.4 percent for Mitt Romney in 2012. Hillary Clinton won 29.4 percent of the rural Democratic votes this year, compared to 37.7 percent for President Obama in 2012. (Yonder graphics)
In micropolitan areas, which have a city of at least 10,000 but none with more than 50,000 residents, Trump won 61.8 percent of the rural vote, compared to 57.7 percent for Romney in 2012, Bishop and Marema write. Clinton won 33 percent of the votes among rural micropolitan residents, compared to 40.5 percent for Obama in 2012.

Misinformation about methadone making it difficult for rural opioid addicts to receive treatment

Stigma surrounding methadone is making it difficult for rural opioid addicts to kick the habit, Christine Vestal reports for Stateline. Methadone is one of three medications available to treat addiction to heroin and prescription pain pills. The other two, buprenorphine and Vivitrol, "can be prescribed by doctors. But for some patients, particularly those who have built up a high tolerance for opioids through prolonged use or high doses, methadone can be the only addiction medication that works."

Mark Parrino, president of the American Association for the Treatment of Opioid Dependence, said "350,000 patients receive daily methadone doses along with counseling and other health services from 1,460 opioid treatment centers, a number that has grown by less than 25 perceqant in the last decade," Vestal writes. "During the same time, the number of people misusing prescription opioids more than doubled, and opioid overdose deaths have quadrupled since 1999." Opioid rates have been increasing at a rapid rate in rural areas.

One problem is rampant misinformation about methadone, Vestal writes. "Many in the medical community and addiction counseling field adhere to the discredited belief that because the methadone molecule is similar to heroin its use amounts to 'trading one drug for another' or 'one addiction for another' and does not mark true recovery."

Another misconception is that methadone from addiction clinics ends up being sold on the street, leading to increased overdose deaths, Vestal writes. " According to data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the methadone that is killing people is the tablet form of the medication, which originates in pain clinics and is widely prescribed to low-income Medicaid patients."

The truth is that "methadone is highly regulated, requiring patients to show up at a specialized clinic every day to take their dose while a medical professional watches," Vestal writes. "Under federal rules, patients who take the medication consistently for six months and are able to stay away from drugs can be granted permission to take home a week to a month’s supply of methadone."

"For financial reasons, methadone clinic operators are also discouraged from locating in the 16 states—Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming—where Medicaid, the federal-state health program for the poor, does not pay for the medication and related services.  Lack of funding is also a deterrent in the 19 states that have not expanded Medicaid to the low-income adults who make up a disproportionately large segment of the opioid-addicted population." (Read more)

Trump's victory has collapsed peso, which could lead to increased immigration from Mexico

President-elect Donald Trump has pushed border security along the U.S./Mexico border as one of his top priorities. But one of his other policies could actually lead to increased immigration from Mexico, Max Ehrenfreund reports for The Washington Post. "Trump has proposed a punitive tariff of 35 percent on imports from Mexico. The fee would limit American demand for Mexican goods, causing a contraction in the Mexican manufacturing sector and reducing employment for Mexican workers. Many could come here instead."

"A tariff would affect the exchange rate in ways that could increase immigration," Ehrenfreund writes. "Investors have sold off pesos during the campaign in anticipation that a Trump administration could reduce their value by restricting trade. The price of the currency has plunged 11 percent just since Trump's election and has declined 18 percent over the past year, from 6 cents to fewer than 5 cents per peso." (Post graphic: The Mexican peso has collapsed since Trump's victory)
That decline means "that the same hourly wage in the U.S.will be worth substantially more in Mexico," Ehrenfreund writes. "Work in the U.S. has become more remunerative for people in Mexico who are considering emigrating. Also, the increase in cost of imported goods in Mexico will have some households looking for more money in order to make ends meet. Meanwhile, those who are already here have more of a reason to stay, since their wages have become that much more valuable to their families at home." (Read more)

Thursday, November 10, 2016

How states voted on gun control, recreational marijuana, religion, cigarette tax, hunting, more

Supporters of recreational marijuana in Maine
(Bangor Daily News photo by Troy Bennett)
Voters in Nevada, California and Washington "voted in favor of enhanced gun control, while Maine narrowly rejected universal background checks for private gun sales despite millions of dollars spent there by national gun control advocates," Josh Sanburn reports for Time.

In Nevada, "voters approved a similar measure to expand background checks to private gun sales and transfers," Sanburn writes. "California approved a measure that outlaws possession of large-capacity ammunition magazines, requires background checks for ammunition sales and allows the state to immediately remove firearms from people who have been convicted of a felony or violent misdemeanor. Washington state also approved a measure that allows judges to issue orders enabling authorities to temporarily seize guns from people who are deemed a threat to themselves or others."

Laws allowing recreational use of marijuana by adults passed in California, Massachusetts and Nevada but a similar measure failed to pass in Arizona. Voters in Florida, North Dakota and Arkansas approved medical marijuana initiatives, while "voters in in Montana also rolled back restrictions on an existing medical pot law," Christopher Ingraham reports for The Washington Post. In Maine, recreational marijuana passed by less than 1 percent of the vote, leading opponents to call for a recount, Darren Fishell and Michael Shepherd report for the Bangor Daily News.

In Oklahoma, voters rejected State Question 790, which "would have removed the restriction on using public money for religious purposes," reports the Tulsa World.

In Indiana, a right-to-hunt measure passed," Zach Osowski reports for The Indianapolis Star. "The amendment prohibits local governments from passing laws banning hunting or fishing; and empowers only the Indiana General Assembly to change laws governing hunting and fishing. It also stipulates that hunting is the preferred method for controlling wildlife populations."

Missouri voters defeated a measure to raise the state's very low cigarette tax, Joe Robertson reports for The Kansas City Star. "All of the attention was on Amendment 3, which began as a campaign to raise more than $300 million for early childhood health and education, but devolved into a tug-of-war between Big Tobacco and Little Tobacco, and was disfavored by major health and anti-tobacco institutions. Voters rejected the measure, 59 percent to 41 percent."

Colorado voters passed Amendment 71, which "will require any proposed amendment to the state constitution be signed off on by voters in each of the state’s 35 Senate districts," Blair Miller reports for The Denver Channel. There was fear that if passed, it could put an end to local attempts to ban hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas, by giving rural areas more leverage.

Kentucky weekly helps pass tax to help schools

A weekly newspaper in Central Kentucky led the charge to pass a tax that will fund much-needed renovations at local schools. More than 54 percent of voters in Marion County, Kentucky, voted in favor of the recallable nickel (5 cents per $100 of property valuation, subject to a petition and referendum) which with matching state funds, will give Marion County Public Schools about $30 million for renovations. In 2008, 58 percent voting against an identical proposal.

Lebanon, Ky. (Best Places map)
The Lebanon Enterprise did several stories on the issue in a sample-copy edition sent to all addresses in the county. The schools sponsored the extra printing and postage with $1,500, but Publisher Stevie Lowery said the edition would have run with or without the schools sponsorship. Lowery said the schools have sponsored previous countywide editions.

For one story, fourth and fifth graders were asked, "If you were granted three wishes for your school, what would they be?" Lowery reported that the majority asked for practical things, such as more bathrooms. Lebanon Elementary School has four bathrooms—two for girls, two for boys—for 400 students.

At Lebanon and Calvary elementaries, where one room serves as gyms cafeterias and auditorium, students said they wanted separate facilities for the three functions, Lowery wrote. There was also concern about crowded classrooms, no music or art rooms, or science or computer labs, bigger libraries, and a separate place at Calvary for the nurse, who currently shares a space on a stage where music is taught. Lowery also supported the cause with editorials and kept up an active conversation on the newspaper's Facebook page.

The Enterprise has long been owned by Shelbyville-based Landmark Community Newspapers, a company that sets standards but allows editorial autonomy. Lowery has a son in school and is a daughter of the late Steve Lowery, who edited the paper in the 1980s.

UPDATE, Nov. 18: An Enterprise employee reports on a congratulatory call from a subscriber.

Trump's dominance in rural North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan led to victory

Hillary Clinton won the largest cities in Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. But overwhelming support for Donald Trump most everywhere else in those key swing states, including large support in rural areas and small cities, and that was the difference in those states and the election, Bill Bishop and Tim Marema report for the Daily Yonder.

In all three states the final tally was close, with Trump winning Pennsylvania 51 percent to 49 percent, North Carolina 52-48 and Michigan 50.2-49.8. "In North Carolina, Trump won everywhere except in major metro areas of 1 million residents and up," Bishop and Marema note. While Clinton beat Trump in metro areas 52-48, Trump made up the difference everywhere else, winning 61-39 in rural areas and 63-37 in micropolitan counties areas, which have a city of at least 10,000 but none with more than 50,000 residents. (Yonder graphics)
"Pennsylvania tells a similar story," Bishop and Marema write. "There, Trump won comfortably in all categories of counties except ones in major metropolitan areas of 1 million residents or more – places like Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. In those major metro counties, he stayed within 3 points of Clinton and quickly made up that gap in the rest of the state." Trump easily won rural areas, 77-23 and micropolitan counties 70-30.
"The story in Michigan was a bit different," Bishop and Marema write. "There, Trump seized a razor-thin surprise victory primarily because of lighter turnout. Clinton received 325,000 fewer votes than Obama did in 2012 – more than enough to have bested Trump’s lead, which was under 15,000 votes on Wednesday afternoon." Overall, Clinton won metro areas 53-47, but Trump won rural 67-33 and micropolitan 61-39.

Former steel town in rural Pennsylvania is a poster child for why Trump won the election

Best Places map
Donald Trump's presidential victory surprised many political experts, but not residents of rural towns like Ambridge, Pa., Trip Gabriel reports for The New York Times. Blue-collar rural towns like Ambridgea former steel town, were the main reason why Trump took battleground states like Pennsylvania.

"Industrial decline and what is perceived as too fast cultural change in the country at large has transformed Ambridge and the rest of Beaver County around it, with the yards of faded brick homes presenting a river of Trump signs," Gabriel writes. While Trump won Pennsylvania by 1 percentage point, he easily won Beaver County by 20 points.

"Ambridge, like much of Pennsylvania outside Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, eagerly enlisted in Trump Nation this year," Gabriel writes. "Its largely white, less educated population (15 percent have a college degree) packed a boisterous rally that Trump held at the local high school. Clinton supporters were not invisible but kept their heads down. A radio ad by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party that ran on Sunday during the Pittsburgh Steelers game urged voters to protect gains made for working people, mentioning Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy, but no one on this year’s ballot."

Jerry Kormick, a disabled construction worker, who voted for the first time, at age 37, said he "never believed polls showing Hillary Clinton ahead, not after visiting friends in rural North Carolina," Gabriel writes. Retirees Joann and Mark Crano were big Clinton supporters in 2008, but have since switched to being registered Republicans, something they say many of their friends and family also have done. Joann blames Benghazi for no longer supporting Clinton, while Mark cites her support for pro-choice and same-sex marriage laws. He told Gabriel, "If you’re a Christian, you can only vote for Trump."

Trump on energy policy: He said he would revive coal and also help oil and natural gas, but how?

Can Donald Trump follow through on his promise
 to revive the coal industry? (Getty Images)
During his campaign Donald Trump promised to revive the coal industry but also to support oil and natural gas, a fuel that has replaced coal at many power plants, and offered no details. Now what can we expect his energy policy to be?

When it comes to coal there might not be much Trump can do, except roll back President Obama's carbon-dioxide regulations that aim a 32 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030. Even that might not do much to help the ailing industry, John Miller and Timothy Puko report for The Wall Street Journal. "By all appearances, coal looks to be well on its way out in North America, though it remains a growing energy source in developing parts of the world. In the U.S., coal miners have lost $30 billion in market value this decade, and the sector has shed over 30,000 jobs since 2009."

While Republicans blame Obama and his "war on coal," experts "say the main culprit for coal’s decline is natural gas, which has flooded the market since the development of hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, undercutting coal," Miller and Puko write. "This year is the first in recorded memory when gas will make up a bigger part of the grid than coal. On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration said U.S. coal production was expected this year to fall to its lowest level in nearly four decades, while natural gas would 'increase in 2017 as drilling activity picks up and new pipelines connect supplies to demand centers'.”

Those in depleted coal communities have high expectations for Trump, Stu Johnson reports for WEKU-FM at Eastern Kentucky University. Ben Hale, chief executive of Floyd County, a former Democratic stronghold where 70 percent voted for Trump, told Johnson, “He has made these promises. We expect him to follow through on them and see if he can do something, as far as restoring that industry and helping our coal people get back to work.”

When it comes to oil and gas, expect more pipelines, Mike Soraghan reports for Energywire: "Trump, who campaigned on making America energy independent, cannot do much to accelerate drilling amid a price slump. But pipeline construction represents perhaps the fastest way to give the oil and gas industry a shot in the arm and stick it to the anti-fossil-fuel movement."

Trump is expected to revive the Keystone XL pipeline and to end delays of the Dakota Access pipeline, as well as giving the green light to other proposed projects, Soraghan writes. "The oil and gas industry is enthusiastic about the potential to stop playing defense on the pipeline issue. Industry figures say President Obama blocked the Keystone XL pipeline and delayed the Dakota Access pipeline to appease environmental groups."

Trump also is expected to roll back regulations, "including a crackdown on methane emissions from the oil and gas sector and expanding the scope of the Clean Water Act by broadening the definition of 'waters of the U.S.'," Soraghan writes.

Rural white voters in South and elsewhere made their voices heard loud and clear

Rural voters like Luke Garrett say Trump was able
to relate to common people (Jonsson photo)
Rural white voters in the South made their voices heard loud and clear in the presidential election, helping Donald Trump take every state in the region, Patrik Jonsson reports for The Christian Science Monitor. "Small counties had never seemed so overwhelming on election night maps. Trump won because white voters in rural areas and small towns chose him by huge margins, while urban voters were cooler toward Hillary Clinton." Luke Garrett, a chicken farmer in Between, Ga., told Jonsson,"Unlike past Republican candidates, including Mitt Romney, he was able to relate to people, to common people.”

Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues at the University of Kentucky, who publishes The Rural Blog and writes a political column for The Courier-Journal of Louisville, told Jonsson the key was Trump's focus on visiting rural areas: "People asked why Trump was going to small places and having rallies, ‘To make yourself feel good?’ No, he was exercising his organic turnout strategy, to generate enthusiasm and a feeling of purpose and being part of a movement among rural people. And it worked.” Cross said rural turnout in Kentucky, which usually lags behind urban turnout, seemed stronger this time.

Another key was Trump's understanding of how to woo voters, Jonsson writes. Mac McCorkle, a public affairs professor at Duke University, told Jonsson, “Trump understood that the conservative side of politics is no longer a party in the sense that we think of coalitions of interest groups, and has become more of a social movement. While there is a prairie fire social movement in rural America, the Democrats want to say, ‘It’s all the Koch brothers or elitist manipulation.’ But it’s something that is clearly real and powerful. He may be riding on top of a tiger, but you’ve got to give him a lot of credit for understanding that.”

While Trump recognized a growing unease in rural areas with Washington politics, Clinton completely missed it, Jonsson writes. "Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack at one point offered his resignation to President Obama, saying the administration lacked any focus on rural America. Obama convinced Vilsack to stay by appointing him [as point man for the] opioid crisis, but he appears to have missed the underlying warning." Cross told Jonsson, “Here’s Vilsack, giving a warning that 15 percent of the country is feeling disrespected and disregarded, and Obama should have put two and two together there." (Read more)

Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Rural America, overlooked by Democrats and their candidates, carries Trump to presidential win

Donald Trump giving his acceptance speech (Bloomberg photo)
Donald Trump's surprise presidential win Tuesday can be attributed to the Republican "running up wide margins in rural and blue-collar parts of the country, while Clinton showed a weakened hold on the major, urban areas where Democrats traditionally score big," Aaron Zitner and Paul Overberg report for The Wall Street Journal. That helped Trump nab Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, totaling 67 electoral votes.

The Trump campaign focused on turning out rural voters in Rust Belt states. He scored a surprise win in Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) and holds a slim lead in Michigan (16 EVs).

Chuck Todd of NBC News summed it up perfectly when he said during election coverage, "Rural America is basically screaming at us, 'stop overlooking us!'" Veteran NBC anchor Tom Brokaw added, "What we underestimated was the depth of the anger."

Rural Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin played major roles in giving Trump the victory, Todd, Mark Murray and Carrie Dann report for NBC. In Michigan, Trump won rural areas and small towns by a margin of 57 percent to 38 percent, better than Mitt Romney's 53-46 edge in 2012. Trump won rural Pennsylvania 71-26, up from 59-40 for Romney. He also won rural Wisconsin 63-34, compared to 53-46 for Romney.

While Trump was grabbing rural votes, exit polls showed Clinton was performing much worse in metropolitan areas than Obama in 2012. She had 160,000 fewer votes in Detroit and 46,000 less in Philadelphia, Zitner and Overberg note.

Exit polls in 2012 showed that Obama won despite faring worse among white voters than any Democratic candidate since Walter Mondale in 1984, Nate Cohn reports for The New York Times. "Those polls showed that white voters without a degree were now just one-third of the electorate. It was interpreted to mean that there was not much room for additional losses, especially once a white Democrat replaced Obama on the ballot. The truth was that Democrats were far more dependent on white working-class voters than many believed."

The Clinton campaign barely advertised on TV in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan, convinced it didn't need to, Cohn writes. That's the type of attitude that has upset many rural voters, who feel ignored by candidates, David Bernstein reports for WGBH in Boston. Democratic strategist Matt Barron, who has "preached the importance of appealing to those voters," told Bernstein, "Democrats have paid a steep price for ignoring rural/exurban voters for too long, and it has bitten them hard tonight.”

It's not as if they weren't warned. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a former governor of Iowa, which Trump carried, tried to resign last year because he was "frustrated with a culture in Washington that too often ignored rural America’s struggles and dismissed its virtues," The Washington Post reported in September.

Author chronicled rural Wisconsin voters' sense of resentment of being ignored by politicians

Rural Wisconsin carried Republican Donald Trump to victory in a state that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton took for granted. She should have listened to Kathy Cramer, political-science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who traversed 27 rural communities in the state to find out how they feel about politics for her 2015 book The Politics of Resentment, Jeff Guo reports for The Washington Post. What she found is that many rural Wisconsinites feel a "deep sense of bitterness toward elites and city dwellers; just about all of them felt tread on, disrespected and cheated out of what they felt they deserved."

That feeling of anger helped Trump nab 63 percent of the state's rural vote, compared to 34 percent for Clinton, according to analysis from NBC News. Overall, Trump won 1,404,869 votes in Wisconsin, compared to 1,377,880 for Clinton.

In her book, "Cramer argues that this 'rural consciousness' is key to understanding which political arguments ring true to her subjects," Guo writes. "For instance, she says, most rural Wisconsinites supported the Tea Party's quest to shrink government not out of any belief in the virtues of small government but because they did not trust the government to help 'people like them.'"

Wisconsin results (Wikipedia map)
Cramer wrote: “Support for less government among lower-income people is often derided as the opinions of people who have been duped. Listening in on these conversations, it is hard to conclude that the people I studied believe what they do because they have been hoodwinked. Their views are rooted in identities and values, as well as in economic perceptions; and these things are all intertwined.”

Cramer told Guo, "What I was hearing was this general sense of being on the short end of the stick. Rural people felt like they not getting their fair share. People felt that they were not getting their fair share of decision-making power. People would complain that they weren’t getting their fair share of stuff, that they weren’t getting their fair share of public resources. That often came up in perceptions of taxation. People had this sense that all the sense that all the money is sucked in by Madison, but never spent on places like theirs."

"People felt that they weren’t getting respect," she said. "They would say: The real kicker is that people in the city don’t understand us. They don’t understand what rural life is like, what’s important to us and what challenges that we’re facing. They think we’re a bunch of redneck racists. So it’s all three of these things—the power, the money, the respect. People are feeling like they’re not getting their fair share of any of that." (Read more)

Voters in Rust Belt states support Trump's views that trade deals hurt U.S. manufacturing jobs

Donald Trump's promise to bring back Rust Belt manufacturing jobs lost through trade deals helped carry the Republican to victory in key states on Tuesday, Tami Luhby and Jennifer Agiesta report for CNN. Trump won Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and is expected to be named the winner in Michigan.

In exit polls, voters agreed "with Trump's view that trade agreements have hurt American workers," Luhby and Agiesta write. "Half of Michigan's electorate feel trade takes away jobs, and these folks supported Trump by a 57 percent to 36 percent split. The 31 percent who think it creates jobs backed Clinton by a 65 to 31 margin."

"In Ohio, 47 percent of voters say trade hurts workers, and they lined up for Trump by a more than 2-to-1 margin," Luhby and Agiesta write. The 46 percent who say it creates jobs or has no effect strongly backed Clinton. And in Pennsylvania, 53 percent of the electorate agree that trade is bad for jobs. Some 62 percent supported Trump, while 34 percent backed Clinton. Among the 35 percent who feel trade is a job creator, Clinton was the favored candidate by more than a 2-to-1 margin."

How will a Trump presidency impact agriculture? Less regulation, but questions on trade

"Donald Trump’s stunning victory on Tuesday, combined with a Congress that will stay in Republican hands, ensures that farms and energy producers will win relief from federal regulations, but the election outcome also throws the future of U.S. trade policy into doubt," Philip Brasher reports for Agri-Pulse. "Trump’s campaign was based on rolling up big margins in rural regions of Ohio, Iowa and other battleground states, and he did that in part by pounding the Obama administration over regulations and trade."

"Republicans also won the House and retained control of the Senate," Brasher writes. "Trump has pledged to kill the Obama administration’s 'waters of the United States' rule and the greenhouse-gas regulations on electric utilities. Both rules have been put on hold by the courts, but Trump’s victory virtually ensures that they will be killed."

"The Obama administration’s pesticide and labor regulations also are likely to be targeted as well," Brasher writes. "A Trump administration also is likely to slow down endangered species protections that have frustrated farmers, ranchers and energy producers."

"A bigger question is what happens to trade and immigration policy," Brasher writes. "The future of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership looks grim. Trump made opposition to the TPP a major focus of his campaign and he pledged to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, which has been a major benefit to U.S. agricultural exports. Trump also has threatened to impose tariffs on China, a major market for U.S. soybeans and other farm products."

"Trump has backed off his threat to deport all illegal immigrants, saying that he would focus enforcement actions on criminal aliens," Brasher writes. "His advisers say he will streamline the H-2A visa program to make it easier for farms to import the labor that they need."

"Farmers nationwide overwhelmingly favored Trump over Clinton, 55 percent to 18 percent, according to the Agri-Pulse Farm and Ranch Poll taken last month," Brasher writes. "More than 70 percent said that regulatory policies were on the wrong track, and 86 percent said they were 'somewhat' or 'very dissatisfied' with the way things are going in the country."

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Billionaire coal operator who is top mine-safety delinquent wins West Virginia governorship

Justice celebrates (Gazette-Mail photo by E. Brian Ferguson)
Jim Justice, the billionaire operator of Southern Coal Corp. and owner of The Greenbrier resort, was elected governor of West Virginia on Tuesday. Justice owed $15 million in taxes and fines in six states as of Oct. 9, making him the nation's top mine-safety delinquent. Justice, a Democrat, beat Republican Bill Close, 49 percent to 42 percent. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump easily won the state, earning his second largest share of votes—69 percent—second only to Wyoming, where he won 70 percent. Republicans control the House and Senate in West Virginia.

"Facing an increasingly conservative leaning state, Justice ran a vague and conservative campaign, something he was criticized for by Mountain Party candidate Charlotte Pritt, who pulled in more liberal votes across the state," Andrew Brown reports for the Charleston Gazette-Mail. "Justice has shrugged off Republican criticisms that he is part of the 'good ol’ boy' system by saying the West Virginia Democratic Party 'never had Jim Justice.' On several occasions he pledged to take the state on a 'jobs rocket ride' if he is elected governor."

Justice said after being elected: “I am an absolute believer that we don’t have to divide business and labor. We don’t have to be at odds with each other over whether you’re rich, poor, black, white, whatever it may be. We don’t need to be at odds with one another whether you be Republican, Democrat, independent. We’ve got too many people on the outside throwing rocks at us, and we have to bond together.” (Read more)

Obama administration steps up enforcement of insurance laws to combat opioid epidemic

The Obama administration "is stepping up enforcement of laws that require equal insurance coverage for mental and physical illnesses, a move officials say will help combat an opioid overdose epidemic," Robert Pear reports for The New York Times. Opioid rates have been on the rise nationwide, especially in many rural areas. Obama in July called on Congress to approve $1.1 billion in new funding to make opioid treatment available for every American.

"A White House task force on Oct. 27 said insurers needed to understand that coverage for the treatment of drug addiction must be comparable to that for other conditions like depression, schizophrenia, cancer and heart disease," Pear writes. "As an example, the administration said, insurers may not require prior approval for drugs to treat opioid addiction, like buprenorphine, if they do not impose similar restrictions on drugs with similar safety risks that are prescribed for physical illnesses."

The task force "called for more frequent audits of health plans and warned insurers against imposing stricter requirements on mental health services than on other types of medical care," Pear writes. "More than 40 million people—about one in five American adults—experience some kind of mental illness each year, the administration said, and more than 20 million have a 'substance use disorder' involving drugs or alcohol."

Over the past five years the U.S. Department of Labor has conducted 1,515 investigations of possible parity violations, issuing 171 citations for noncompliance by employer-sponsored health plans, Pear writes. "Those 171 citations are more significant than the number might appear, said Phyllis C. Borzi, an assistant secretary of labor. When the government finds violations, she said, it requires insurers to correct all their health plans, so that a single citation may produce 'global changes' affecting tens of thousands of group health plans with millions of participants." (Read more)