How is the covid-19 pandemic likely to affect your state? The first preliminary public estimates are available from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Because the estimates are based on limited data, they should be used with caution, but they do offer a rough state-by-state comparison, and IHME plans to update it daily. “Every day that we get more data, we'll get better predictions,” Institute Director Christopher Murray told The Washington Post.
Murray wrote in his report that his initially published numbers used confirmed covid-19 deaths through March 24, and state-by-state data on hospital capacity and use, and used covid-19 data "from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the U.S. over the next four months."
Deaths in a pandemic typically follow a bell-shaped curve. The report estimated the peak of the curve for each state and the likeliest number of deaths on that day. Health experts talk of the need to "flatten the curve" to keep the number of cases from overwhelming the health-care system, and Kentucky appears to be doing that than its neighbor Tennessee, which has imposed less strict measures for social distancing to limit the spread of the virus. However, the estimates for Kentucky have wider ranges because they are based on more limited data.
One major obstacle to dealing with the virus is the lack of testing, which could track its spread. widespread testing would identify people who have the virus but no symptoms, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN. People without symptoms can still spread the virus, and not develop symptoms until two weeks.
The University of Washington estimated that as many as 162,000 Americans will die from covid-19, but that the number could be as low as 38,000. It said the likeliest number is 81,114 deaths.
"In addition to a large number of deaths from covid-19, the epidemic in the U.S. will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care," Murray wrote.
Murray's results closely resemble those from a model developed by federal scientists, said Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House's coronavirus task force. “When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel, which we didn't know about, IHME and Chris Murray, ended up at the same numbers,” Birx said at President Trump's daily press conference Sunday.
Murray wrote in his report that his initially published numbers used confirmed covid-19 deaths through March 24, and state-by-state data on hospital capacity and use, and used covid-19 data "from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the U.S. over the next four months."
Deaths in a pandemic typically follow a bell-shaped curve. The report estimated the peak of the curve for each state and the likeliest number of deaths on that day. Health experts talk of the need to "flatten the curve" to keep the number of cases from overwhelming the health-care system, and Kentucky appears to be doing that than its neighbor Tennessee, which has imposed less strict measures for social distancing to limit the spread of the virus. However, the estimates for Kentucky have wider ranges because they are based on more limited data.
 |
| Projections above for Kentucky, below for Tennessee; shaded areas indicate possible ranges. To view a larger version of either image, click on it. Images have been squeezed horizontally. |
The University of Washington estimated that as many as 162,000 Americans will die from covid-19, but that the number could be as low as 38,000. It said the likeliest number is 81,114 deaths.
"In addition to a large number of deaths from covid-19, the epidemic in the U.S. will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care," Murray wrote.
Murray's results closely resemble those from a model developed by federal scientists, said Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House's coronavirus task force. “When we finished, the other group that was working in parallel, which we didn't know about, IHME and Chris Murray, ended up at the same numbers,” Birx said at President Trump's daily press conference Sunday.
No comments:
Post a Comment