AI isn't coming for 'blue-collar' jobs. The skilled trades sector boasts 'high-tech, 21st-century, rewarding, well-paying jobs.'

Human work may change as AI enters
new markets. (Unsplash graphic)

Artificial intelligence may upend parts of the U.S. labor market, but "blue-collar" jobs are growing and expected to be less vulnerable to AI intrusion. "AI is supposed to displace millions of workers in the coming years — but when your toilet won't flush at 2 a.m., you're not going to call ChatGPT," reports Ben Berkowitz of Axios. "Companies are already boasting of saving hundreds of millions of dollars a year by using AI instead of humans."

AI might be able to regurgitate its "white-collar work" programming with razor-like precision, but putting on a new roof or installing electrical wiring won't be its domain. "The 40 most-vulnerable jobs (translators, historians, sales reps, etc.), basically all of them office work," Berkowitz writes. "The 40 least-vulnerable jobs (dredge operators, roofers, etc.), just about all of them manual labor."

Reinvigorating American labor and manufacturing has "become a key Trump administration economic talking point: Blue-collar wages are rising faster now than at the start of any other administration going back to Nixon," Berkowitz reports.

Even before the AI mega-data center expansions, there was a skilled trade worker shortage. "AI will, ironically, only make [the shortage] worse," Berkowitz explains. "Factories alone are short about 450,000 people a month, per the National Association of Manufacturers."

Jay Timmons, the CEO of NAM, told Berkowitz, "We're really talking about high-tech, 21st-century, rewarding, well-paying jobs. Manufacturers are really embracing what's coming, and they accept the responsibility."

Efforts to ramp up the number of American trade workers "will require a large-scale, national effort — not just for up-and-coming students, but for mid-career folks forced into a pivot," Berkowitz explains. "Everyone from politicians to CEOs recognizes just how badly they need tradespeople to keep the economy running." 

A rural town in Virginia highlights the economic stress and uncertainty that unfolds when its biggest employer closes

The CornerStone Crossroads mart used to serve about 100
Boar's Head employees a day. (CornerStone ad photo)

Update: On Sept. 13, the Boar's Head website announced the indefinite closure of its Jarratt, Virginia plant. The company also included their decision to permanently discontinue making liverwurst. Christina Jewett and Teddy Rosenbluth of The New York Times report, "Union officials said the plant’s 500 workers would be given severance and offered relocation."

The Boar's Head plant in rural Jarratt, Virginia, remains closed after a national listeria outbreak, including nine deaths, was linked to the facility. "For years, the plant was seen as a stable, albeit difficult, place to make a living in the town of roughly 600," reports Eduardo Medina of The New York Times. Jennifer Blake of WWBT News in Virginia reports, "The Boar’s Head production facility [was] the largest and most common source of income for [Jarratt] residents."

The financial domino effect isn't limited to Boar's Head employees. "CornerStone Crossroads, a convenience store and restaurant, has had a drastic decline in customers," Medina reports. "When the plant was fully operating, CornerStone Crossroads would serve. . . about 100 plant workers every day. . . Now, it’s mostly just a handful of construction workers who stop by."

Some Jarratt residents "expressed remorse that a major employer in town had sickened so many people in several states," Medina writes. Russell Lewis, whose mother worked for Boar’s Head decades ago, told Medina, "I’m surprised, I’m disappointed, I’m sad so many people died from it . . . . From what I know from people who have worked there, it’s hard work. You’re basically in a refrigerator."

Other residents are simply anxious for the plant to reopen. Blake reports, "Despite the unhealthy findings, one resident says having that plant open is necessary." He told Blake, "People depend on Boar’s Head. I wish they could get it together and find out (what) the situation is that created the problem because a lot of people depend on it. I mean look around, there are only farmlands. It’s the only productive place in Jarratt as far as employment wise.”

In total, Boar's Head recalled seven million pounds of product and "says it won't reopen until they are 'confident that it meets the standards our customers expect and deserve,'" reports Cameron Thompson of WTVR News in Virginia. "It added employees are undergoing additional training and they are partnering with global food safety experts." Meanwhile, the residents of Jarratt await the plant's reopening and hopefully, a return to lines at the CornerStone Crossroads eatery.

Rural America makes small job gains, but issues with child care and education may be preventing bigger gains

Graph shows a gap in recovery rates of rural and urban counties.
(The Daily Yonder graph, from Bureau of Labor Statistics data)

As rural American makes headway in post-pandemic labor numbers, larger problems still prevent a full recovery in some counties, reports Sarah Melotte of The Daily Yonder. "Rural America added more than 200,000 jobs over the past year but is still below pre-pandemic employment levels, according to a Daily Yonder analysis. The failure to reach full recovery three and a half years after the start of the pandemic is related to larger trends, including an aging population, lack of childcare, and lower levels of formal education, according to an economist."

Overall, rural employment grew a percentage point in September, but still "has 64,000 fewer jobs this year than it did the same time in 2019, before the pandemic," Melotte writes. Elizabeth Davis, a professor of applied economics at the University of Minnesota, told Melotte, "Rural areas took a hit." Melotte notes, "Rural counties haven't fully recovered from the 2008 financial crisis, much less the drop in employment brought on by the pandemic, Davis said."

The Daily Yonder graphic, from Bureau of Labor Statistics data

At the beginning of the pandemic, rural employment was more stable than urban. "Rural counties were actually ahead of urban ones in employment recovery for the first year of the pandemic," Melotte reports. "After that, urban gains eclipsed rural gains in employment. . . . . .  Rural counties made up 95 of the top 100 counties with the most employment loss. . . . Only 43% of rural counties have returned to pre-pandemic or better employment numbers, while about two-thirds of urban counties have."

Rural resources and populations differ and those variances make labor comparisons within rural counties difficult, but the lack of child care could be a common problem. "There are a few demographic factors Davis said might be at play in employment recovery." She told Melotte: "We hear a lot of employers concerned about the lack of childcare because they can't find workers. They hear from their workers and their families that they can't find child care, so they can't work, or can't work full time."

Fewer than half of rural counties have as many jobs now as they did before the pandemic, according to a Yonder analysis, which includes an interactive map. Here's a screenshot:

Map by Sarah Melotte of The Daily Yonder via Datawrapper, adapted by The Rural Blog; click on it to enlarge.

Military veterans identify the best employers who support and value them; Forbes magazine has the latest rankings

In celebration of Veterans Day, Forbes magazine has released its fourth annual listing of "America's Best Employers For Veterans 2023." The magazine partnered with market research firm Statista and "surveyed 8,500 veterans (those who have served in the U.S. Armed Forces, the Reserves or the National Guard) working for companies with more than 1,000 employees," reports Rachel Rabkin Peachman of Forbes. 

Healthcare and tech companies and government agencies received some of the highest rankings, with the U.S. Department of Energy finishing first on the list, followed by Ricoh USA. "What these employers have in common is a deep commitment to hiring and valuing members of the military," Peachman writes. "Ricoh USA, for one, seeks out military talent through career fairs. . . .The company also supports military-related leaves of absence and donates to such organizations as Wounded Warriors. . . What's more, Ricoh prioritizes partnerships with veteran-owned businesses, and, according to Venable, the company grew its spending with veteran suppliers by 30% in 2022."

The highlighted companies are not the norm, and ex-military job hunters cite stereotypes such as "all military members have PTSD" or all are "drill sergeants who don't know how to assimilate into a civilian environment" as reasons employers avoid hiring veterans, Peachman explains. "The key for employers is to learn about what military experience can entail. . . . In turn, veterans can increase their chances of landing the right job by learning how to translate their military skills into terms a civilian employer may understand. That way, recruiters don't have to wonder what it means to lead a battalion or guess about what airmen technicians do."

NASA ranks #38 as a veterans employer. (Forbes ranking)

In a nation where around 200,000 service members leave the military each year, "companies seeking top talent have a pool of motivated, skilled and highly trained" candidates, Peachman reports. "Hiring veterans, with their diverse experiences and expertise, not only adds value to an organization's workforce but also qualifies employers for tax credits."

It's worth noting that rural Americans are more likely to serve in the military. The U.S. 2010 census found that only 16% of Americans live in rural areas, and yet 24% of all veterans do, says a report by the U.S. Census Bureau. An even greater percentage of military members come from rural areas. Find Forbes' full list here.

Opinion: We could end poverty. 'Why don't we do it?'

Census Bureau graph

In 2021, U.S. poverty hit the resounding record low of 7.8% -- a good thing, but only a reprieve. Once pandemic benefits ended and inflation shot upward, the number of Americans living in poverty soared, with the Supplemental Poverty Measure posting a near 60% increase, with 11.4% of U.S. citizens living in poverty in 2022. "And it's all because politicians allowed proven income support programs to expire," writes Lakeisha McVey in her opinion for OtherWords.com.

"I'm an expert on poverty. I've lived it most of my life in Iowa. I studied it as a Bill Emerson National Hunger Fellow in rural West Virginia and in Washington, D.C., and now I help people experiencing poverty across the country tell their own stories to change policy.

"People can pull themselves up by their bootstraps, get an education, and work multiple jobs. But in the face of rising prices, low wages, high rents, and a broken healthcare system, it's often not enough. Without a safety net and a level playing field for families, financial security is often out of reach.

"When I was growing up in Des Moines, my mom had a stable job with the state, but her pay wasn't enough for a real home for my two siblings and me. Iowa, like every state, has a low-income housing crisis. And families of color like mine experience greater challenges obtaining affordable housing. We bounced around shelters, churches and motel rooms.

"Despite a stigma about accepting public assistance, we benefited from SNAP (aka 'food stamps') and the Women, Infants and Children program. But like other low-income families, we had to navigate the 'benefits cliff.' When my mother made just $10 more, we'd lose the benefits we needed for sufficient, regular meals.

"My father suffered from opioid addiction. When he was eventually able to get stable employment and rejoin our family, we finally got an apartment where the schools were decent. But a brain aneurysm suddenly took his life, and we ended up back on the opposite side of the city where the underfunded schools offered less opportunity.

"I wanted to stay in my school, so I spent four hours a day commuting on public buses and on foot. I knew I needed to get into college to be able to help my family financially. Now I have a steady job, and so does my husband.

"But everyday struggles don't end. The brokenness of our healthcare system burst into my life again when our baby was born with a fatal condition. The medical costs ran nearly $1 million in just the first few months of his tragically short life. . . . What could prepare someone for that?

"Thankfully, my employer pays 100% of my health insurance. That's a rarity. If I'd been out of work or worked elsewhere, we would've gone bankrupt as we suffered the most tragic thing that could ever happen to us as parents.

"These are just a few of the structural obstacles low-income people face every day. But there are solutions. The advocates I work with reported enormous relief after politicians finally agreed to invest in helping children and families during the Covid-19 crisis.

"The expanded Child Tax Credit cut child poverty nearly in half. Expanded food programs through SNAP lifted more than 3 million people out of poverty and staved off an expected spike in hunger. Housing subsidies kept nearly 2.5 million people out of poverty and in their homes. And Medicaid enrollment protections reduced the number of uninsured people by 1.5 million.

"The year those programs were implemented, the Supplemental Poverty Measure fell to 7.8% — its lowest ever level. But when politicians rejected continuing this vital help for families, it increased by a record amount. This is a failure for families across the country. We need to renew and expand those programs as soon as possible. . . . Poverty is solvable. We know what works. Why don't we do it?"

Lakeisha McVey is a bereaved mother, social justice advocate and leader of the Experts on Poverty Program at RESULTS.

Rural towns facing meat plant closures struggle to find a new path forward

Noel officials hope that recreation options can fill some
economic losses. (Photo by Harlan Bozeman,WSJ)

Over the next few months, six rural counties will face Tyson chicken plant closures, with residents, small-business owners and county officials facing tough choices," reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. Tyson is one of many companies shrinking its operations. "Meat processors are closing plants across the country in response to what they say is slackening consumer demand and persistently high costs for livestock, feed and wages."

The Tyson plant in Noel, Missouri, pop. 2,220, will close this month. While many employees have already quit and left town, small-business owners like Angel Saldivar are also considering leaving. "Saldivar​ wasn't among the 1,500 Tyson workers affected by the plant's shutdown," Thomas writes. "He and his family run a restaurant across the street, Tony's Burritos, which his grandmother opened in the 1990s as a lunch spot for plant employees. With the plant scheduled to close by mid-October, Saldivar says Tony's probably will, too. . . . Tony's sales have fallen 40% to 50% from August."

Noel is one of several towns facing plant closure fallouts. "Poultry company Perdue Farms said in August it was closing a meat plant in Michigan that employs 130 people, and pork giant Smithfield Foods closed a 1,800-person California facility this year," Thomas explains. "The closures spell economic turbulence for towns such as Noel, where meatpacking plants are major employers, customers of local farmers and truckers, and cornerstones of the tax base."

It can take years for a rural town's economy to rebound from a plant closure, and some do not recover. "In Plainview, Texas, agriculture giant Cargill a decade ago closed a beef plant, the town's largest employer with more than 2,000 workers," Thomas reports. "Charles Starnes, Plainview's mayor, said restaurants and other businesses around the plant laid off staff or closed completely, leading to about 3,000 total jobs lost in Plainview. The city's population has declined by about 2,000 people since the year the plant closed, he said."

In some areas, a plant's closure could open the door for new opportunities. Thomas writes, "For Noel, local officials said that without the plant's noxious smells, the city's location on the Elk River in southwest Missouri could make it a more popular tourist destination and attract outdoor activities such as kayaking. Lance said the site could attract a new hotel or a casino."

The loss of timber jobs left this county awash in poverty, violence and tree poaching

The Guardian illustration

Illegal tree harvesting is not ordinary in some parts, but it can become a person's primary source of income in lands where national parks and environmental concerns have ebbed out timbering employment. "Timber poaching exists at a confluence of this rural economic decline and environmental policy," reports Lyndsie Bourgon of The Guardian. "A number of poachers in Orick, California, detailed their motivations as an alchemy of poverty, lack of opportunity, drug misuse and resentment toward national parks, the federal government and environmentalists. . . . It's a snapshot of how rural communities across North America face de-industrialization, the ways they have failed to transition away from those dependent economies, and the people who remain rooted through the change."

Bourgon writes about Danny Garcia, a man who grew up in Orick, a Humbolt County town along California's Redwood Coast. Garcia was born into a beleaguered rural economy and became a tree poacher. Bourgon writes, "Redwoods National Park was instituted in the 1960s, then expanded in the 1970s, and in the late 20th century, the town was not spared from the Pacific north-west's timber wars. Orick's logging industry began to shrink, then all but disappeared as mills and lumber companies closed or moved." 

Alongside life in rural Orick, Garcia lived with the violence and trauma that often accompanies poverty. "By the early 1990s, Garcia's mother had died by suicide. His grandfather and many of his uncles were killed in logging accidents, traffic accidents and by drowning. Some spent time in prison; some used hard drugs. One of his aunts told me about the assaults she and her friends had experienced in the town from husbands, boyfriends, and other family members."

The sociologist Jennifer Sherman, a professor at Washington State University, studies unemployment's effects on rural communities in California and Washington. She told Bourgon, "Domestic violence is a huge part of my work. It seems to accompany poverty wherever poverty goes." Bourgon reports: "Humboldt leads California in violence against women; in particular, Indigenous women (close to 50% of Indigenous women in Humboldt are victims of domestic violence, according to Humboldt county domestic violence services). . . . Humboldt County averages 50% more domestic violence-related police calls per capita than the rest of California, and of those, close to half include a weapon."

Walmart, a big warehouser, starts shifting to robots

Walmart transitioned to using autonomous forklifts.
(Photo by Thomas Simonetti, The Wall Street Journal)

"Please, A.I., don't take our jobs, take our tasks," Talib Babb mused in his New Yorker "Daily Shout." He must have shouted gustily, because someone at Walmart heard him. "Inside a sprawling Walmart warehouse here, hundreds of jobs slinging boxes are changing into roles managing robotic arms, conveyor belts and screens, report Sarah Nassauer and Dave Cole of The Wall Street Journal. "The central Florida warehouse in Brooksville, is surrounded by cow pastures and housing developments, has been one of this county's largest private employers since it opened in 1991, say local officials. By the end of the year, it will be the first U.S. Walmart warehouse of its kind to use automation to handle most products."

The center marks a dramatic change in warehouse labor; robots are doing the heavy lifting, and employees are directing the bots. José Molina has been "a Brooksville warehouse worker for 25 years. Three months ago, he became an autonomous forklift operator in the facility after years unloading semi trucks the manual way with a pallet jack," the Journal reports. Molina told reporters: "Now I'm watching the robots unload the truck. I'm behind the robot taking care of the issues. It's a big change. The work is less manual, there is more software knowledge involved, and he has more energy at the end of a shift, he said. Workers who make the leap to automated jobs generally don't earn higher pay. Walmart's supply-chain workers earn an average of $25.50 an hour."

The shift to automation was met with mixed responses. "Skepticism and fear of layoffs among workers are common when a warehouse first transitions to automation, said Piyush Sampat, a supply-chain consultant from Deloitte," the Journal reports. "Many workers are excited about a new challenge, but others leave, he said. Employers automate, in part, to cut labor costs, so losing some workers during the process helps avoid the need for layoffs, said Sampat. As Walmart automates, it doesn't expect its overall U.S. workforce to shrink as it hires for new roles, but it will grow more slowly than in the past, executives said." To encourage employees to try new roles, managers have framed the change as healthier and offering more promotion opportunities.

"Because of Walmart's scale, its plan to make automation standard in more of its supply chain is likely to affect how smaller competitors invest in their own facilities and what a U.S. warehouse job becomes," the Journal reports. "Workers receive around six weeks of training when they transition, learning about software, fixing issues as they arise and how to track inventory as it is passed between robots. . . . David Guggina, executive vice president of supply chain for Walmart, said what this technology does for us is increases capacity, increases the accuracy of our loads, increases the speed of the supply chain and lowers cost."

SNAP benefits' work rules may leave some rural residents struggling; waivers exist but not all governors can/do apply

Rural regions can have too many people and not enough jobs, so some residents who receive Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits may struggle to meet the newly reinstated federal work requirements. "Able-bodied adults without dependents must work 80 hours or more per month to continue receiving benefits through SNAP, formerly known as food stamps. The Trump administration suspended the requirement at the start of the pandemic, and the old requirements resumed in May," reports Sarah Melotte of The Daily Yonder. Rural areas "on average have fewer jobs, greater transportation needs, and less broadband access. . . . . Rural America still doesn't have as many jobs as it did before Covid-19."

There are no SNAP work requirements for "able-bodied people without dependents between the ages of 18 and 50" for the first 90 days, Melotte explains. After that, "people have to work at least 20 hours per week to continue receiving benefits. . . . But for the recipients who live in places with insufficient jobs, that's easier said than done. A 2022 survey of 25,000 American adults found that the most common reason people are unemployed is because of job availability. Twenty-eight percent of survey respondents said that there were no jobs that were good fits in terms of geography, wages, or hours of employment."

The Department of Labor maintains a list of Labor Surplus Areas, "or places where there are not enough jobs for the working age population," Melotte writes. "Researchers and federal agencies can use the list. . . to identify where federal funding should be emphasized. . . . . States can apply for waivers from the federal government to eliminate the SNAP time constraints in areas with insufficient employment. . . . [When] governors make the waiver requests, and they will often use the LSA list to justify the need. . . . The Food and Nutrition Service can then exempt those areas. That means people who live in LSAs can remain on SNAP for longer. . . regardless of whether they meet employment requirements." Some state laws prohibit waiver requests and governors are not required to ask for one. Ellen Vollinger, SNAP director at the nonprofit Food Research & Action Center, told Melotte, "Many states did a good job of using area waivers. But several states, mainly in the Southeast, chose not to use the area waivers."

For example, East Carroll Parish, Louisiana, "is a rural LSA in the Mississippi Delta. In 2021, 30% of households were receiving SNAP benefits, compared to only 14% of the total rural population, according to recent estimates. . . . Mississippi prohibits work requirements waivers based on job availability. Twenty-four percent of Mississippi households in a county with an LSA received SNAP benefits in 2021. Over 160,000 people live in an LSA in Mississippi, but if they are of working age and without dependents, they still have to meet work requirements to continue getting benefits." Vollinger told Melotte: "It's a really harsh and arbitrary provision."

Reporters suffer hard times, too; sharing them with readers can make connections through our common humanity

Many reporters have experienced unemployment
and homelessness. (Photo from PovertyUSA)

For journalistic integrity, reporters train to suppress their personal views when addressing a topic. But in uncertain times, many reporters have lived their own versions of trauma, such as homelessness or addiction, and they have shared their experiences with their audiences as part of an unfolding story of shared humanity, reports Bob Sillick of Editor & Publisher. "Because of the severe contraction of the news industry and the uncertainty of working as a freelancer, some journalists have experienced poverty and food insecurity. Becoming part of the story is often critical to their articles being published. The financial and distribution support of the Economic Hardship Reporting Project is helping those journalists recover from the trauma of being without a job and sometimes homeless."

Alissa Quart, executive director of EHRP, told Sillick, "For some of our pieces, the journalists report about hard times they've experienced. Many accomplished journalists have had to receive food stamps and unemployment or have been homeless." Sillick reports, "Lori Yearwood is one of those journalists who have lived through crises. She was an enterprise reporter with The Miami Herald for seven years. . . A series of traumatic circumstances caused her to become unhoused for two years. After she found a place to live, she started to freelance for EHRP . . . becoming a team member and reclaiming her position as a full-time reporter again." Yearwood told Sillick, "Instead of writing only from the perspective of the victim, who is often portrayed as being solely disempowered, I emphasize the more comprehensive story about the coping mechanisms and the resilience that it takes to negotiate these horrendous circumstances in which people find themselves."

Anne Elizabeth Moore is another EHRP-supported journalist who, after years of professional writing, had an extreme health crisis. She told Sillick, "I experienced a quite severe and financially devastating illness. I applied for an award from an organization that was giving free houses to low-income writers in a permanent residency program." Moore used her experience to grapple with her situation. "What's tricky writing about poverty is so much of our culture doesn't allow for honesty about economic security. You must pay very close attention to identifying those who are struggling financially. Have a conversation with people experiencing poverty, but not in a judgmental way."

Sillick recommends adding humanity to any reporter's quiver of writing tools. He writes: "Reducing poverty and food insecurity to numbers can cause everyone to lose sight of the human stories and the circumstances those people must endure." Still, Sillick offers some "baseline" numbers:

• In primary families with children younger than 6, 16.1% were in poverty, and 15% in those with children younger than 18.
• According to the Agriculture Department, 10.2% of all U.S. households were defined as "food insecure" in 2021. Approximately four percent had very low food security. That number rose to 6.2% in those families with children.
• Food insecurity in Black and Hispanic households was greater than for all households, or 19.8% and 16.2%, respectively.

Rural counties still haven't regained jobs they lost in first year of pandemic; 60% had fewer jobs in 2022 than in 2019

Rural America's post-pandemic recovery continues to lag behind the rest of the nation. "Last week's monthly job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was better than expected, but another recent report from the bureau shows rural America still has a way to go to get back to pre-pandemic employment levels," reports Tim Marema of The Daily Yonder. "In April, the bureau released its annual average employment report for 2022. As the name implies, this report takes job data for the entire year. It produces a single average employment number for each county in the U.S. This data provides a longer-term view than monthly reports of how the American economy is performing for working people."

Rural America lost 953,000 jobs in the first year of the pandemic and has added less than 738,000 jobs in the last two years, Marema reports: "In 2022, there were 1.1% fewer jobs in rural counties than in 2019. Metropolitan counties had, on average, about 1% more jobs last year than before the pandemic. . . . The most recent county-level monthly job reinforces the prospects of slow job recovery in rural counties. Rural counties added about 85,000 jobs in February 2023 compared to the previous February, a gain of 0.4%."

Marema also notes: "Six out of every 10 rural counties had fewer jobs in 2022 than in 2019, and a majority of metropolitan counties (56%) had more jobs last year than three years ago." The details vary by region. "States in the Northeast, Great Lakes region, and the Great Plains had a higher percentage of rural counties that lost jobs. . . . Fourteen states saw gains in metropolitan employment while losing jobs in rural counties. . . . Other regions with a larger proportion of counties with job losses were along the Texas border and Gulf, the Black Belt South, coastal California, and parts of the Rocky Mountain West."

More Americans are going hungry than last summer, due to inflation, but 16 states have ended pandemic food-aid boost

States in gray opted out. (Stateline map; click to enlarge.)

More Americans are going hungry than last summer because of soaring food prices, but at least 16 states are refusing extra federal money meant to help the hungry, who are disproportionately rural.

This July, food costs rose an average of 10.9 percent from the previous July, the biggest single-year jump since 1979, Molly Smith reports for Bloomberg. Eggs and grain-based foods saw some of the biggest increases, owing to the recent avian-flu epidemic that took out millions of laying hens and the Russian invasion of Ukraine that has stalled grain shipments. Overall food prices rose 1.14% from June to July, the highest month-over-month increase since April 2020.

In July, more than 15 million Americans sometimes went hungry because they couldn't afford food, and nearly 6 million often did, according to the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey. In July 2021, nearly 12 million sometimes went hungry because they couldn't afford food and 3.6 million often did.

"Those numbers would have been higher if millions of families hadn’t received extra food aid through a pandemic-related expansion of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, commonly known as food stamps," Kristian Hernández reports for Stateline. "At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic . . . Congress temporarily increased SNAP benefits by raising all benefits by 15% and boosting every household to the maximum benefit allowed for its household size. In April 2021, the Biden administration bumped up the extra aid to a minimum of $95 for all households."

The 15% increase expired last September, but the maximum-benefit boost will continue as long as a state is still in a state of emergency or disaster due to the pandemic. "As of mid-July, 30 states had ended or allowed their health emergency orders to expire, but 18 of those states continued to qualify for emergency SNAP benefits because they are citing disaster declarations. According to the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency website, every state has at least one active disaster declaration due to Covid-19," Hernández reports. "But at least 16 states now have opted out of providing the emergency allotments, with Republican leaders in some of those states arguing that the extra food aid and other pandemic-related help are contributing to worker shortages across the country."

Three-quarters of households getting SNAP benefits had at least one adult working in 2018, the most recent data available, "and some researchers have long argued that while Medicaid and other welfare programs might include disincentives to work, SNAP does not," Hernández reports, adding that even with the recent increases in benefits, recipients in over 20% of counties still couldn't afford three modest meals a day last fall—and that was before inflation sent food prices skyrocketing.

Georgia cut off the extra benefits in June; a spokesperson for Gov. Brian Kemp said Georgians don't need it because of the strong economy and low unemployment rate. "But food banks across Georgia say they have seen an increase in clients since the emergency benefits were cut off," Hernández reports. "Danah Craft, executive director of Feeding Georgia, a network of food banks across the state, said food banks are so overwhelmed they are no longer able to feed people with their usual donations, forcing them to buy food instead." The CEO of another Georgia food bank nonprofit — one which serves mostly rural counties — said households reported getting an extra $89 per month in emergency benefits, but it's not helping much because of higher food prices, Hernández reports.

"I think some of these benefits are ending because there is an assumption that as we're emerging from the pandemic, that things have returned to normal," Craft told Hernández. "But the reality is that people are faring worse than they did pre-Covid."

Are we in a recession? PolitiFact has primer with rural angle

The turbulent economy has spawned a great deal of debate about whether the U.S. is in a recession, but it turns out it's not so easy to define. Here's what to know, from Louis Jacobson  at PolitiFact.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted recently on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a common definition is two consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, marking the second consecutive quarter of falling GDP. Yellen said, "What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy. And even if that number is negative, we are not in a recession now."

Jacobson writes, "Yellen is correct that the official definition economists use is significantly broader than the two-consecutive-quarters shorthand. At the same time, arguing over the technical definition of whether the U.S. is in a recession is a distraction, economists say. In today’s economy, so many indicators are off-kilter because of the pandemic that old rules like the two-quarters rule may no longer apply. Still, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the economy even without calling it a recession right now."

The two-quarter rule is widely known because it's simple and easy for the public to understand, according to Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the Rural Mainstreet Index. "But officially, the only recession arbiter is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. The committee has been marking the start and end points of recessions since the late 1970s," Jacobson reports. "The committee deliberates privately, but it is open about what factors it uses to determine the start of a recession, namely 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.' Every recession requires 'depth, diffusion, and duration" of economic hurt.'"

On its website, the committee notes that it has sometimes called a recession even without the two-quarters rule. That includes the 2020 pandemic recession, which lasted only two months. "The committee says it weighs a variety of factors, including inflation-adjusted personal income, nonfarm payrolls, household employment data, inflation-adjusted personal expenditures, inflation-adjusted manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production," Jacobson reports. "The biggest shortcoming of NBER’s system is that it isn’t done in real time. The fastest determinations have occurred about four months after a recession’s start; the slowest have come 21 months later."

Most of the two dozen economists PolitiFact contacted for the story warned against relying too heavily on the two-quarter rule. The data is only preliminary and gets revised later as more data comes in, they noted, which can change economic figures dramatically. That may be what's happened with the most recent GDP figures, they said. Though the GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022, economists said the numbers may be off-base because of issues with inventories and trade data, Jacobson reports.

Considering GDP alone overlooks other important economic data points. The unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.6%, nonfarm payroll employment continues to rise robustly, and most of the recent payroll growth has been in full-time as opposed to part-time jobs, said Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless," Jacobson reports. "Consumer spending also continues to chug along, despite high inflation."

Because of federal pandemic aid, overall U.S. poverty fell in 2020, especially among children and rural residents

Census Bureau chart; click the image to enlarge it.

Thanks to direct federal aid prompted by the pandemic, overall poverty in the U.S. declined from 2019 to 2020 among every age group, racial and ethnic group, and educational level, according to the latest Census Bureau figures.

Rural poverty fell a full percentage point further than urban poverty, and rural incomes fell less, but one in seven rural Americans were still living in poverty when the census was taken last April, Chuck Abbott reports for the The Food & Environment Reporting Network.

Federal pandemic aid "is widely credited by economists and policy experts for preventing another Great Depression," Heather Long and Amy Goldstein report for The Washington Post. "The stimulus payments provided $1,200 cash payments to most low-income and middle-class Americans last year, moving 11.7 million people out of poverty, the Census [Bureau] said. Another 5.5 million people were prevented from falling into poverty by the enhanced unemployment insurance aid."

From 2019 to 2020, rural poverty rates fell 3.3 percentage points, from 11.6% to 8.3%, while urban rates fell 2.5 percentage points, from 11.8% to 9.3%, according to a supplemental report. During the same time period, median household income fell 2.1 percentage points to $51,616 in rural areas, while in urban areas it fell 2.6 percentage points to $70,956.

Poverty among children was substantially reduced, thanks to direct aid and the newly expanded child tax credit, part of a pandemic aid package, The Economist notes. But though poverty was down, hunger was up in nine states, more people used food banks and emergency kitchens, and more children went hungry last year than in 2019, according to a recent Agriculture Department report.

"The official poverty rate rose slightly in 2020 to 11.4 percent, up from a record low 10.5 percent in 2019, but that figure leaves out much of the government aid," Long and Goldstein report. "After accounting for all the federal relief payments, the so-called supplemental poverty measure declined to 9.1 percent in 2020 — the lowest on record and a significant decline from 11.8 percent in 2019."

Rural unemployment is lower than it was a year ago, but rural counties and women still have high jobless rates

Job gains and losses from July 2019 to July 2021.
Daily Yonder map; click the image to enlarge it or click here for the interactive version.

According to the latest federal employment numbers, "only three out of 10 counties in the country had as many jobs this July as in July 2019, before anyone had heard of Covid-19. Rural and urban America are about the same on this measure. Only 30.8% of urban counties and 28.1% of rural counties have as many jobs now as they did two years ago," Bill Bishop reports for The Daily Yonder. "Things look better, however, when the employment figures from this July are compared to this time last year, after Covid-19 had hit. Only 18.5% of rural counties and just 2% of urban counties have fewer jobs this July than in July 2020."

But women are having a tough time, especially since federal supplemental unemployment benefits recently expired. "Government data also showed a drop in child-care employment and women’s participation in labor force — two areas that have been inextricably connected throughout the pandemic," Anne Branigin reports for The Lily, a publication of The Washington Post. "The dip was especially dramatic for women between the ages of 25 and 54."

Click here for more analysis from the Yonder, including an interactive map.

Job gains, especially rural, stagnate over past three months; most counties are still below pre-pandemic levels

Employment in June 2021 compared to June 2021, by rurality and relative gain or loss.
Daily Yonder map; click the image to enlarge it or here for the interactive version.

Nationwide employment numbers have stagnated over the past three months and barely inched up in June, especially in rural areas. "Between May and June, the nation’s net gain in employment nationally amounted to just 0.3 percent. Rural America added about 93,000 jobs in June, according to the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics. That was an increase of just one half of one percent over May," Bill Bishop reports for The Daily Yonder. "And, as the map above shows, most U.S. counties had fewer jobs this June than June of 2019, before the Covid pandemic began." Nationwide employment in June 2021 was at 96.7% of June 2019 levels.

Metro counties lost a greater share of jobs in the early months of the pandemic, but have bounced back more quickly than rural areas. Twenty Republican-led states reduced unemployment benefits in June in an effort to force more people to return to work, The Washington Post reports. Those states did see more workers over age 25 return to work, but didn't really gain net jobs because those workers essentially elbowed out teen workers. Health concerns and childcare difficulties are probably the biggest reason people still aren't coming back to work, one expert said.

Click here for more charts and analysis from the Yonder, including an interactive county-level map.

Eviction moratorium extended for those with federal loans; estimates show how many renters are behind in your county

Estimated percentage of renting households in arrears, June 23 to July 5, 2021. Based on Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey Wave. Surgo Ventures map; click the image to enlarge, or click here for an interactive version.

Though the federal government's eviction moratorium expired on Friday, President Biden has asked the Agriculture Department and other agencies to extend it until Sept. 30 for those who have real-estate loans through federal agencies, Ximena Bustillo reports for Politico's Weekly Agriculture.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi asked Biden to extend the whole program, saying that the administration must take action, but Biden insisted that only Congress has that power, citing a Supreme Court ruling in June that said the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention overstepped its authority in creating the policy. "The moratorium, put in place during the pandemic, was credited with keeping more than 2 million renters in their homes. Two days before it ended – and just one day before the House adjourned – the White House made its first public appeal for Congress to take action to extend the policy," Joey Garrison reports for USA Today. "The Democratic-controlled House adjourned for recess last week without taking action on a bill that would have renewed it."

Meanwhile, renters and landlords nationwide are struggling. An NBC investigation revealed last week that many states had, for a variety of reasons, distributed only a fraction of the aid meant to keep tenants from being evicted and unpaid landlords able to cover their own costs. A laid-off Phoenix woman, for example, told The Arizona Republic that the state said it was processing her application in early April, but despite numerous calls hasn't been able to get an update, a human voice on the phone, or a check. And in Georgia, only about 6% of the $710 million the state received has been paid out as of July 20, while 160,000 to 344,000 Georgians are likely to be evicted, according to Census Bureau estimates. According to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, the culprits are "slow rollouts, cumbersome paperwork for both renters and landlords, and landlords who decline to accept payments have left government programs sitting on piles of unspent aid just as renters need it the most."

About 6.2 million American households are behind on rent, according to a new report by humanitarian data science outfit Surgo Ventures, an initiative of the Surgo Foundation. Households in arrears represent 14.7% of all renting households and owe an average of $3,700, or $23 billion nationwide.

A county-level map from the report shows that Southern renters are especially likely to owe money, with 16% of all households in arrears and owing $8.4 billion as of July. It's important to note that county-level figures are estimates based on Surgo's extrapolation of state-level data from the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey and cross-referenced with the 2019 American Community Survey; however, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers Surgo's work careful enough to use its Covid-19 Community Vulnerability Index as a resource. Read more about its methodology here.

States that cut extra unemployment early saw jumps in hiring of over-25s but a slowdown in hiring of teenagers

"The 20 Republican-led states that reduced unemployment benefits in June did not see an immediate spike in overall hiring, but early evidence suggests something did change: The teen hiring boom slowed in those states, and workers 25 and older returned to work more quickly," Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam report for The Washington Post.

Payroll processor Gusto gave the Post an analysis which found that hospitality businesses in states that have ended extra unemployment benefits, such as Missouri, "saw a jump in hiring of workers over age 25," the Post reports. Howver, "The uptick in hiring of older workers was roughly offset by the slower hiring of teens in these states. In contrast, restaurants and hospitality businesses in states such as Kansas, where the full benefits remain, have been hiring a lot more teenagers who are less experienced and less likely to qualify for unemployment aid."

Health concerns and childcare difficulties have likely played a large role in adults' reluctance to return to work, Gusto found. The analysis concludes: "Ending enhanced unemployment insurance provisions is likely not the silver bullet to speeding up this economic recovery, and policymakers would be better-served by focusing on achieving higher vaccination rates and ensuring schools and child care centers can re-open in a safe and timely manner—particularly because these enhanced UI provisions are set to end for all states in several weeks."

With eviction moratorium about to end, most federal relief funds unspent; see how your area fares on rent debt

The federal government's pandemic-based eviction moratorium will expire tomorrow, but only a fraction of landlords and renters have received any of the relief meant to keep tenants from being evicted and unpaid landlords from going broke, according to an NBC investigation.

"NBC News contacted all 50 states and the District of Columbia about their emergency rental assistance programs. An analysis of responses from 41 states found that 26 of them had distributed less than 10 percent of their first allocations, although several programs had just begun distributing money in June," Bracey Harris and Adiel Kaplan report. "The reasons the aid hasn't reached frustrated landlords and nervous tenants are complex, from the inevitable stumbles that come with setting up new programs to software woes to varied degrees of hesitancy among states to sign off on payments without extensive documentation of need."

The December stimulus-and-relief package had $25 billion to help pay up to a year of back-rent, and the $1.9 trillion package approved in March gave the Federal Emergency Management Agency funds to help people pay one month's utilities and mortgage or rent to help prevent evictions and service cut-offs.

"An NBC News analysis of Census Household Pulse Survey data shows an overlap in some states that have the country's highest percentages of tenants behind on rent and programs that have gotten off to slower starts," Harris and Kaplan report. "In South Carolina, less than 1 percent of funds had been spent by July 15. Of renters in the state taking the survey, 29% said they were behind on payments, the highest percentage in the country. By mid-July, the state's emergency rental assistance program had processed 226 applications."

To see how your area is faring, click here for the Rent Debt Dashboard, an interactive data visualization tool with regularly updated data on rent debt for 40 states and 15 metro areas. The tool is a product of the National Equity Atlas and the Right to City Alliance.

Economic outlook remains high among small-town heartland bankers, tempered by concern over drought and land prices

A July survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwest states that rely on agriculture and energy found continued optimism for local economies amid concerns about employment, drought, and more. 

July's Rural Mainstreet Index fell to 65.6 from June's 70, and May's record 78.8, remaining above growth-neutral for the eighth straight month. The index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

“Solid, but somewhat weaker, grain prices, along with the Federal Reserve’s record-low interest rates, and growing exports have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy. Even so, current rural employment remains below pre-pandemic levels," reports Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the index.

Farmland prices remained strong, staying above growth-neutral for a record tenth straight month. For July, the farmland index fell to 71 from June's 75.9. Surveyed bankers worry the trend won't last; the average CEO surveyed projected farmland price growth for the next 12 months at 2.4%.

Weather remains a significant concern; 47% of bankers reported damaging drought conditions for farmers. Jobs are another issue; despite recent gains, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that nonfarm employment for the Rural Mainstreet economy is 1.3%, or 55,000 jobs, below pre-pandemic levels.