Higher interest rates, heavier debt and increased costs have Midwest farmers drawing comparisons to 1980s struggles

   

Photo by Jesse Gardner on Unsplash

In a report for Wisconsin Public Radio, Hope Kirwan reminds listeners of an agricultural downturn of 40 years ago when “a decline in crop prices and farmland values, massive amounts of farm debt and high interest rates led to a landslide of farmers forced to leave the industry. By the end of the decade, an estimated 300,000 farms went bankrupt or foreclosed.”

While the comparison is understandable — a conflict with Iran, higher fuel and fertilizer prices — farmers and economists alike recognize that unlike then, the federal government now provides more safeguards, such as crop insurance. But the difficulties still are threatening, as Kirwan reports, “Profit margins for U.S. corn and soybeans have been negative for the past two years, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.”

The WPR report quotes Seth Meyer, an agriculture economist at the University of Missouri, who says today’s safeguards “won’t keep people from exiting” but can allow “a more orderly result. So folks aren’t knocked out by one bad situation, some of which is out of their control.”

One such situation has California lettuce growers plowing their crops back into the ground. The Wall Street Journal reports that the outbreak of the cyclospora virus, even though it has not been connected to domestic production, has instilled so much fear in consumers that “growers can’t afford the expense of picking and storing crops they might not be able to sell.”

In response to the challenges farmers are facing, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins announced on Tuesday at Minnesota Farmfest that the federal government is implementing “a series of data modernization payment flexibility, and enhanced crop insurance options to benefit farmers.” In a USDA press release, Rollins said, “We’re modernizing how USDA serves farmers, providing common sense flexibility when it’s needed most, and strengthening the risk management tools producers depend on.”

The Wisconsin farmer quoted in the WPR report said he’s hoping to hang in there until commodity prices begin to rise again. “Everything we do is managing risk, and there’s a cost to that,” he said, while expressing optimism.

The California lettuce farmer quoted by WSJ seemed to agree. “You can’t afford to be downcast very long,” he said. “You better pick yourself up, dust yourself off and keep pushing forward.”

Ag round-up: Nearly 70% of farmers can't afford fertilizer; union and JBS reach deal; real help for stressed farmers

Share of farmers unable to afford all required fertilizer. (American Farm Bureau Federation graph)

Nearly 70% of American farmers report they can't afford all the fertilizer they need this season because of increased input prices due to the war in Iran and an already stressed farm economy, according to an April survey of 5,700 farmers by the American Farm Bureau Federation. "Farmers in the Southern region reported the greatest difficulty securing fertilizer, with 78% unable to afford all needed inputs this season," reports Faith Parum of AFBF. "Producers in the Northeast and West also reported significant challenges, with 69% and 66%, respectively, unable to afford all required fertilizer, compared to 48% in the Midwest.”

In an effort to drill down into why fertilizer prices have increased so dramatically since 2021, the U.S. Department of Agriculture is "working with the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission on ongoing investigations into fertilizer and other agricultural input costs," reports Chris Clayton of Progressive Farmer. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden has "continued his criticisms about concentration in the fertilizer industry, calling out The Mosaic Company for announcing it will close phosphorus mines in Brazil. . . . Vaden argued the global market is signaling a need for more supply -- not less. He questioned why a major producer would scale back output under those conditions."

The Greeley plant can process roughly 6,000
cattle per day. (Photo by L. Angharad) 

The local union representing roughly 3,800 beef plant workers in Greeley, Colorado, and meatpacking giant JBS announced a new labor contract agreement early this week, reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. Beef plant workers went on strike on March 16, "seeking higher wages and other workplace changes. . . . The Colorado plant can slaughter about 6,000 cattle a day, representing roughly 5% of U.S. beef-processing capacity." The new agreement includes worker wage increases through 2027 and protects employees from having to pay for their own required protective equipment. The last slaughterhouse strike happened at a Minnesota Hormel plant in 1985. 

Despite the multiple pain points for American soybean farmers in 2026, some of the rising input costs and sinking soybean prices have evolved over the past several years -- only to be exacerbated by tariff levies and the war with Iran, report Eric Ferkenhoff of Lee Enterprises and Josh Kelety of The Associated Press. "Costs, such as equipment, have crept up over time while soybean prices have stayed low." Doug Bartek, a fifth-generation farmer, told reporters, "Our biggest struggles are our inputs, be it fertilizer, seed, chemical or parts. There has been so much drastic markup in all of these. And I just kind of feel like the farmer’s kind of painted in the corner." Many Midwest soybean producers share Bartek’s worries.

Real Farmer Care wants to give farmers the means to
care for themselves. (Graphic by A. Dixon, Offrange)

Are you a farmer in need of some downtime? Do you know a stressed-out farmer who might be forgetting to care for themselves because they're tending to everything else? If either answer is yes, consider nominating yourself or another farmer-in-need-of-care for one of Real Farmer Care's $200 microgrants, writes Nicole Caruth for Offrange. "Think a stress-relieving massage, a pair of sturdy work boots, or just a dinner outing with friends. The grants are small, but can potentially have a big impact." From squeezing tariffs to eye-popping fertilizer costs, U.S. farmers are having a rough year. The brief nomination form is here. 

Farmer income declines and U.S. government disaster payments begin; roughly $9.8 billion will be paid out

Approximately $9.8 billion will be paid out to farmers.
(FAPRI and RaFF map via Farm Journal)

As some U.S. farmers tally thousands of dollars in losses, the federal government has responded with disaster aid checks. "America has long provided subsidies to its farmers, dating back to the 1930s as a way to tackle rural poverty when a quarter of the population lived on farms," reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. "Today, subsidies largely come in the form of insurance. . . . Direct cash payments, while at times controversial, have been used to bolster farmers during agricultural downturns."

U.S. farmers have coped with declining profits and high input costs for the past two seasons. "Net farm income declined 4% this year to $141 billion after falling about 20% last year," Thomas explains. "Weaker prices for commodities such as soybeans and wheat have weighed on farmers’ earnings after growers in the U.S. and elsewhere reared big crops, swelling supplies. Their costs for essentials such as fertilizer and equipment are also higher."

Farm income woes will likely continue in 2025. Thomas reports, "Some of the world’s largest grain shippers and pesticide suppliers are girding for a shrinking farm economy by cutting costs or laying off workers. . . . [The] financial pain on the farm comes after one of the ag industry’s strongest runs on record. . . . In Iowa, the top corn-producing state, farmland values decreased by 3% this year, breaking a five-year streak of rising prices."

President-elect Donald Trump's pledged tariffs on Mexico and China may also hit farmers in the pocketbook. Both countries are "major importers of U.S. crops," Thomas writes. Still, many farmers "believe that Trump's policies may benefit the agricultural economy. . . . In 2018 and 2019, during Trump’s first term, about $23 billion in taxpayer money was paid to farmers to offset the impact of trade disruptions."

The current farm bill extension through Sept. 30 includes "$9.8 billion in market relief payments for 20 covered crops," reports Jim Wiesemeyer of Farm Journal. "According to an analysis by the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, the top 10 states based on estimated total payments for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, sorghum, rice, barley, oats, and peanuts are:

• Texas: $963 million, primarily because of its status as the largest cotton producer
• Iowa: $846 million, with strong support for corn and soybean farmers
• Illinois: $790 million
• Kansas: $787 million
• Nebraska: $625 million
• Minnesota: $616 million
• North Dakota: $597 million
• South Dakota: $497 million
• Indiana: $400 million
• Missouri: $391 million

To get more details on the American Relief Act of 2025, click here. To see the state and crop breakdown and what it means for U.S. farmers, click here.

Quick hits: Wallet-draining breakfast prices; the 'Walmart effect;' rural short story winner; bird flu stats; shouses

Photo by E. Aceron, Unsplash

Budget-busting beef with eggs and coffee breakfasts won't be cheaper anytime soon. "While commodities such as beef and eggs have long been volatile, others such as coffee have jumped in price more recently," report Patrick Thomas, David Uberti and Elizaveta Galkina of The Wall Street Journal. "Average prices for food at home rose in November by the largest annual pace in a year. . . . Store-bought ground [coffee] roasts have jumped 11% in price over the past year to an all-time high." In slightly less of a buzzkill, pork prices have remained steady, and "the average price of white bread is down around 3% over the past year."

Walmart's motto is "save money, live better," but oftentimes, that's not what happens to places after Walmart moves in. "New research suggests that the company makes the communities it operates in poorer — even taking into account its famous low prices," reports Rogé Karma for The Atlantic. "Walmart’s many defenders argue that the company is a boon to poor and middle-class families, who save thousands of dollars every year shopping there. . . .Two new research papers challenge that view." Read the research here.

Haworth's character, Michael, decides to venture home.
(Photo by Julian Scholl, Unsplash)

When one season of life ends, another begins -- or does it? Jeremy Haworth's short story "Blood Brother" explores Michael Riordan's path from retirement boredom to the uncertainty of going home. Haworth writes, "The sudden thought of home occurred to him. . . . Years had elapsed since he had crossed the threshold of the old farmstead. But the twinge in his chest told him time was shortening. The thought of death. . . an instinct to finally lay the ghosts of the past to rest. . ." Hadworth's story is the winner of the second annual “Best in Rural Writing Contest” presented by the rural literary journal The Milk House with support from The Daily Yonder.

The spread of bird flu or H5N1 in dairy cows has put many dairy farmers and consumers on edge. To help measure and mitigate the virus in cow herds, the Department of Agriculture rolled out mandated milk testing in December. The USDA is sharing its testing results with up-to-date graphics of confirmed bird flu cases, also called HPAI, found in U.S. herds. Over the past 30 days, testing found 182 new cases in two states. See the details here.

Shouses don't have to be small. This shouse is located in Okeana, a small unincorporated
community in rural Ohio. (Morton Buildings photo)

Rural landscapes have made room for country-living architecture that goes beyond barn-shaped homes and wood cabins. "Barndominiums" and "shouses" are dotting the countryside in surprising numbers. "Look carefully the next time you’re driving on the back roads of America, and you’re bound to spot a shouse — a hulking rectangular structure. . . . It could easily be mistaken for a machine shed," reports Dionne Searcey of The New York Times. "From the outside, shouses look a lot like the better-known barndominiums, or barndos for short. . . . It’s difficult to trace the genesis of shouses. . ."

'Fancy mechanic' Brienna Hall works for a company few have heard of doing work vital to maintaining all the tech in our lives. "The piece of equipment that the entire world has come to rely on — and Hall is specially trained to handle — is called an extreme ultraviolet lithography machine," reports Ben Cohen of The Wall Street Journal. "It’s the machine that produces the most advanced microchips on the planet . . . maybe the most remarkable thing about these invaluable machines is that they’re all made by the same company: ASML. . . . This one Dutch company is responsible for all of the EUV lithography systems that help make the chips in so many of your devices. Like your phone. And your computer. And your tablet. And your TV. Maybe even your car, too."

Vilsack says legacy of his 12 years at USDA is new revenue sources that will help smaller farmers and small towns

Rural voters strongly rejected President Biden, but his administration has started programs that are already reversing the decline of rural America, says Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, a longtime politician who has given 12 years of his life to the job, more than anyone.

Vilsack summoned Jonathan Martin of Politico for an exit interview, and his frustration came through. “I think the challenge that we have in rural America is that we talk a lot about programs and not about vision,” he said when Martin asked what went wrong for Democrats in rural America.

“The vision is, you don’t have to get big or get out,” which has been a basis of federal agriculture policy since Richard Nixon was re-elected president in 1972, Vilsack said. “You can actually have diversity within your agriculture and in your national resource base in your rural economy and that can create enormous opportunity. And we’re investing in it.”

Vilsack cited “carbon market” payments for preventing greenhouse-gas emissions and other programs designed to help small and medium-sized farmers and boost local and regional food systems. But he said rural voters have yet to feel the impact of changes made under Biden.

“After 50 years of one approach, you can’t do this in a matter of a couple of years. You have to build the foundation. Now, the foundation has been built. The economic model is changed by virtue of the investments we’ve made in this administration. At least 10,000, probably more than that, investments have been made just in this department, in creating a different model so that small and mid-sized farming operations have an opportunity to stay in business.”

Vilsack served eight years under Barack Obama and four
under President Biden. (Associated Press photo by Carolyn Kaster)

Vilsack voiced frustration that the news media and others in Washington haven’t recognized the importance of those changes.

“Change is occurring,” he said. “It just hasn’t resonated with people like you. Or people in this city. You gotta understand the economics of this. You don’t. Nobody in your business understands it, which is the frustrating part for me. When you have a ‘get big or get out’ mentality, when you have an economy that is commodity-based, the big guys do really, really well,” but smaller producers may not.

He said 2022 was the best year ever for farm income, “but if you went out and talked to folks in rural places about that . . . that’s not how they would have seen it. It was a record year for a relatively small number of folks. So what happens, these folks are on knife’s edge, bad year comes, they have a hard time. Who is in a position to buy their farm? The larger farm or investment banks. . . . So you’ve got this model that we’ve had for 50 years that has slowly eroded economic opportunity in rural places.”

While debate about the Farm Bill is “all about reference prices” for crops, “The reference prices are about half a dozen commodities out of 100 some commodities,” Vilsack said. “We’ve created an opportunity in all 50 states, over 100 commodities. We’re paying farmers to do this. We’re giving premiums for what they’re growing and raising. It’s a brand-new concept. It’s really innovative. And it creates not only a better value for the farmer, it creates the ability to get that ecosystem market credit, to transform their waste into something more valuable.”

He added, “People out there are beginning to get it. I’ve had people come up and say, you know, for the first time, I see my kind of operation at USDA. For the first time, I see some change. I see some investment in small and mid-sized farming operations. You want to ask about legacy? That, to me, is the most important legacy.”

Vilsack said USDA “doesn’t get anywhere near the attention it deserves. Not for lack of trying, man. We tried.”

When Martin noted “the collapse of local and regional press, which would be a way to get your story out,” and cited a newspaper Vilsack knows well, the two-term Iowa governor interjected, “That’s bullshit. . . . The Des Moines Register is a shadow of what it was. But it doesn’t necessarily mean that it can’t cover what it should cover.”

Coffee prices continue to spike as global demand grows and supplies lag; China is driving increases

Due to steep price increases, Americans are buying less coffee.
(Adobe Stock photo)

In what many would describe as a total buzzkill, coffee prices are increasing around the globe. "Since January 2021, U.S. coffee importers – which supply 99.6% of the coffee consumed in the U.S. have faced escalating costs for the commodity. Import prices jumped 65% between 2021-23, making a serious impact on consumer prices," reports Billy Roberts for CoBank. U.S. consumers have responded to the steep increases by purchasing fewer beans. Ground coffee sales volumes have declined 10.1% since 2022 and 15.7% since 2021.

While U.S. and European coffee sales remained level through the pandemic years and are now stagnant or dipping, world consumption has steadily increased. "Consumption in Asian countries has jumped 14.5% since 2018, as coffee has become a much more common beverage choice," Roberts explains. "China is playing the lead role in driving the world's coffee demand growth. Servings in China were up 15% Year-over-Year as of May 1 . . .  according to Circana."

Producers would usually welcome an increase in worldwide coffee drinkers, but many continue to deal with supply-line challenges and lower yields. "Droughts, frost and fires in Brazil have damaged as much as one-fifth of arabica coffee producers' growing areas, and frost and below-average rainfall continues to hamper progress," Robert reports. "Colombia has yet to fully recover its pre-Covid share of U.S. exports. . . . Colombian coffee yields continue to trend lower, likely the result of growers opting to limit fertilizer as its price spiked."

Considering demand increases and lagging supplies, coffee prices are expected to remain volatile. "The Bureau of Labor Statistics data find prices for U.S. imports of coffee fell 2.6% from May 2022 to May 2023. Yet, even with the drop, U.S. prices remained substantially ahead of their 2021 levels: 57% higher in May 2023 than in May 2021," Roberts notes. "Global crop concerns have pushed up prices of both arabica and robusta (the two major types of coffee Americans consume)."

U.S. beef herd hits a dramatic low as ranchers face repeated droughts and extreme weather

Graph by John McCracken, Investigate Midwest,
from USDA data

More prolonged periods of drought paired with extreme weather swings have reduced U.S. beef cattle herds to their lowest numbers since 1963. "Droughts starting in 2020 are a contributing factor in the nation's historically low beef inventory, according to Department of Agriculture research," reports John McCracken of Investigate Midwest. "Nebraska and Missouri — two of the top 10 beef-producing states — experienced the largest decline in the quality of June pastureland since 2020 compared to the other top states, according to an Investigate Midwest analysis of USDA data."

Since 1975, the decrease in U.S. beef herd numbers were attributed to "increased global beef production and cattle imports," McCracken explains. However, more recent shifts in livestock numbers have been partly caused by beef producers' response to a lack of water and grazable pasture. During droughts, livestock ranchers are more likely to wean calves off milk earlier than usual, "a common practice in dry years, but one that can also put young cattle at higher risk of dying." Ranchers also cull more cattle and spend more money on feed.

Higher costs to raise a beef herd end in fewer cattle on the market and higher beef prices. "Currently, cattle market experts report that the price paid by meatpackers to beef cattle ranchers is expected to be an all-time high," McCracken reports. "Food industry experts told various media outlets in late 2023 that this price increase would translate into sticker shock for consumers. . . . At the end of last year, the price of beef per pound peaked at $5.35, a 40-year high."

Midwestern agriculture depends on rain and groundwater. Dennis Todey, climatologist and director of the USDA's Midwest Climate Hub, noted how much "climate change has complicated the region's drought realities," McCracken reports. "Livestock producers now deal with weather whiplash — the result of climate change — of severely wet years, followed by intense, dry seasons." This past winter's snowfall across the Midwest is "expected to bring relief from the recent run of drought years," McCracken reports. "Despite forecasts of reduced drought levels for 2024, ranchers will continue to recover from previous drought years."

How low will it go? Farmers worry over Mississippi River levels and fear repeat of last year's crop-transportation crisis

Towboats line the shore near Cairo, Illinois, where the Ohio
flows into the Mississippi. (Photo by Chris Kenning, USA Today)

As the Midwest grain harvest nears, farmers are hoping for higher water levels on the Mississippi River. But as time goes on, that does not look likely, and farmers fear a repeat of last year's expensive crisis. "Last fall, drought led to about 40 days of critically low water in parts of the Mississippi that hadn't seen it in years –grounding barges, stalling traffic, blocking river ports at the height of harvest season and causing an estimated $20 billion in losses, according to AccuWeather," reports Chris Kenning of USA Today. "As this year's harvest approaches, the river is again on the decline."

How far the river will drop is uncertain, but "Mississippi water levels have been falling since June. The Ohio River, which usually has more volume than the Mississippi at their confluence, "dropped almost 10 feet in the last two weeks of August. Levels are predicted to fall farther in the coming weeks," Kenning writes. Margy Eckelkamp of Farm Journal reports, "Most notably, fewer barges are being connected to form a single unit. And barges are being loaded to lighter weight." Soy Transportation Coalition Executive Director Mike Steenhoek told Eckelkamp: "When you start diminishing both the depths that barges can sink to and the number of barges you can put together, that changes the economics of barge transportation, which certainly impacts our competitiveness. . . . It's a movie sequel that none of us wanted to watch."

"With 61% of the Midwest classified as abnormally dry or in drought as of late August, most of the Mississippi is expected to face low water in September that will most likely affect industry and navigation, according to the National Integrated Drought Information System," Kenning reports. "That's worrying farmers who ship grains such as soybeans on the river to New Orleans and, from there, around the globe – relying on lower costs that help keep it competitive for the global export market. They fear another year of backups and spiking costs that eat into profits."

The forecast doesn't look hopeful. David Welch, a National Weather Service hydrologist at the Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center, told Kenning, "Right now, there's no rainfall in sight that will turn things around." Kenning notes that nearly 60% of U.S. grain exports use barges, which are "less expensive than trains, can each carry 70 semi-trucks worth of grain. Industry officials said it's a key reason U.S. soybeans are globally competitive. Last year, stymied barge traffic meant nearby granaries filled up, leaving some farmers scrambling for more expensive or distant storage options."

Drought-stricken lands leave farmers and ranchers to plow under crops and sell off herds

Drought conditions have forced farmers to plow existing crops under.

(Photo by Richard Bell, Unsplash)

Summer’s drought has hit farmers and cattle ranchers hard, leaving them to destroy drying crops and orchard trees and sell off livestock, reports Vanessa Yurkevich, CNN Business. “Nearly three-quarters of U.S. farmers say this year’s drought is hurting their harvest–with significant crop and income loss, according to a new survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, a lobbying group that represents agricultural interests. . . . Thirty-seven percent of farmers said they are plowing through and killing existing crops that won’t reach maturity because of dry conditions." According to the survey, that’s a jump from 24% last year.

Zippy Duvall, AFBF president, told Yurkevich, "The effects of this drought will be felt for years to come, not just by farmers and ranchers but also by consumers. Many farmers have had to make the devastating decision to sell off livestock they have spent years raising or destroy orchard trees that have grown for decades." Yurkevich reports, "July was the third-hottest on record for the U.S., and ranked in the top 10 for every state in the West except for Montana, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.”

Cattle ranchers in states such as Texas face hurdles beyond drought-induced herd water shortages. "High inflation makes it harder for ranchers to salvage their land. The cost of diesel is falling but is still high, making it significantly more expensive to truck in additional water than in years past," Yurkevich writes. "The price of fertilizer for grass and crops and feed for animals also remains expensive." David Anderson, a professor of Agricultural Economics at Texas A&M, told Yurkevich: "We haven’t had this kind of movement of cows to market in a decade, since 2011, which was our last really big drought."

U.S. consumers will likely see across-the-board price increases for produce. "Fruits, nuts, and vegetables overwhelmingly come from states with high levels of drought," Yurkevich adds. "But farmers have been forced to forgo planting or destroy orchards. This will 'will likely result in American consumers paying more for these goods and either partially relying on foreign supplies or shrinking the diversity of items they buy at the store,' the report states. . . . The Bureau of Labor Statistics’s August inflation report shows U.S. consumers are spending 9.3% more on fruits and vegetables from a year ago."

Oats could be making a comeback; they help the soil and control pests and diseases in rotation with other crops

Oats near harvest time in Iowa
(Photo by Anne Plagge via Civil Eats)

Most oats consumed in the U.S. come from Canada, but there are sprouts of change on the horizon. Spurred by the oat "milk" industry's demand, some farmers are piloting crops of Avena sativa. Crop rotations using oats provide benefits such as healthier soil and some control over crop diseases and pests, but the crop needs more internal supports, Amy Mayer reports for Civil Eats. Oats were once an American mainstay crop, "But the second half of the 20th century brought myriad changes to Midwest agriculture. . . federal policy incentives for corn and soybeans that led to significant investment from seed and chemical companies. . . . It became easier and more profitable to grow only corn and soybeans. . . . In 1950, Iowa planted 6.5 million acres of oats. In 1980, Iowa had just 1 million acres of oats, and by 2000, just 180,000 acres."

"Landon Plagge farms 4,000 acres in Latimer, Iowa, with his father and uncle, and his oats are a rarity. . . in the neighborhood," Mayer writes. "Plagge is one of a handful of farmers who have been taking part in an oat-growing pilot program launched in Minnesota and Iowa in 2019. Through the program, he gets technical assistance and some money to plant oats and cover crops." He told Mayer, "I'd like to plant more oats, but the market isn't good enough right now." 

Green oat shoots in the spring
(Photo by Anne Plagge via Civil Eats)

Consumers' demand for oat milk paired with their concern for "the environmental impact of their food choices. . . . is propelling some people to advocate for policy changes that could make growing oats more viable," Mayer reports. "Oatly, the Swedish company ... is one of more than half a dozen companies selling oat milk in the U.S. It buys a lot of oats—from Canada. That's where the vast majority of oats processed and eaten in the United States come from. . . . Oatly's sustainability goals have led it to explore sourcing more [oats] from the Midwest. . . . Over the last three years about 20 farmers have participated in the pilot Plagge joined, planting oats on about 1,500 to 2,000 total acres in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, according to Lydia English, crops viability manager at Practical Farmers of Iowa, a nonprofit that nurtures farmer-led innovation. When Oatly came calling with the pilot idea, PFI was already working with a group of farmers who were experimenting with oats on their own as a way to diversify their corn and soy rotations, said English."

More processing options, investment in Midwestern seed varieties and federal inclusion of oats in required crop rotations could incentivize more oat plantings, Mayer writes, along with teaching farmers the benefits of oats and how to grow them, But many people think the crop checks enough boxes already and is worth the effort. English told Mayer, "We can grow oats here. We know growers want to do it. . . . We just need to help make it viable for them and support them."

American farmers will plant less cotton this year, partly due to drought in high-production areas like Texas

U.S. Department of Agriculture map

Ten years ago, U.S. farmers opted to grow more cotton, but this year marks a change. "Battered by drought and rising costs, U.S. cotton growers will devote more of their land to corn, wheat, and soybeans — crops that promise higher revenue this year — while sharply reducing their cotton plantings, said a survey released on Sunday," reports Chuck Abbott of Successful Farming. "The National Cotton Council said its survey of growers indicated 11.4 million acres will be planted to cotton this spring, 17% less than last year."

Multiple factors have prompted the shift. The Cotton Council's economic summary cited "an environment characterized by increased production costs, slumping consumer demand, and supply chain disruptions. . . . Growers across the Cotton Belt said they would shift some of their land out of cotton. Corn, wheat, and soybeans were the most frequently mentioned alternatives. Futures prices for most alternative crops were strong for the past year but cotton futures have fallen more than 16% since last winter."

Texas produces about 40 percent of the nation's cotton, and Texas growers told the Cotton Council they would plant 6.2 million acres of cotton, 21% less than last year. "Much of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains was in a state of 'exceptional' drought in 2022," reports Jillian Taylor of the Texas Tribune. "More than 70% of all acres in the region failed. It’s one of the worst cotton production seasons the area has seen since the 1950s, according to Plains Cotton Growers, a nonprofit organization of cotton producers from a 41-county region in the northernmost part of the state."

Darren Hudson, a professor of agriculture and economics at Texas Tech University, told Taylor that about a third of economic activity in the region is related to agriculture, “but one of these smaller towns, probably, 80% of their economic activity is related to agriculture in some way. So when you see a loss like this, it impacts those communities much more severely than it does a major metro area.”

Taylor writes, "This year’s drought doesn’t spell the end for most cotton farmers. The federal government offers an insurance subsidy that allows farmers like Walker to break even on their expenses. But breaking even doesn’t mean farmers are in the clear. Farmer Steven Walker said, “We can only do that so many years before it really catches up to us and we’re behind on keeping up our equipment.”

Quick hits: Wikipedia gets a makeover, unions' share keeps falling, religion is changing, best ideas do come in showers

Wikipedia's subtle makeover includes an updated
table of contents section. (Image by Wikipedia)

Wikipedia is one of the world’s top 10 most visited websites, and a resource used by billions every month, is getting its first desktop makeover in more than a decade, TechCrunch reports.

The share of American workers in a labor union in 2022 was 10.1 percent, the lowest figure since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking it almost 40 years ago. In 2021 the figures was 10.3 percent. The decline "comes despite the highest labor union approval rate — 71 percent, according to Gallup — since 1965," Politico Nightly notes.

A Waterloo, Iowa, sports reporter who doesn't like filling in on the weather beat returns to it reluctantly, after a viral rant: ‘It’s pandesnownium!’

Insights on seven common farm shop tools include this: Created by engineers who never actually assembled or disassembled anything.

Engrossing photo essay in The Daily Yonder of Jace Charger, land defender. The piece documents a sage harvest on the Cheyenne River Sioux Reservation, a critical form of self-care for them and their Indigenous community.

Climate change and dairy cows' stomachs: A climate solution is gurgling in there somewhere. A new partnership will work to reduce methane emissions from production of milk around the world.

Although routines can be magical, there is no magic routine. Using a little science can help.

1.6 million acres of U.S. corn is missing. Where did it go?

Ailing Earle, Ark., elected an 18-year-old mayor. Residents hope that Jaylen Smith’s youthful energy and sense of purpose can improve their fortunes. First goal: getting a town supermarket.

Orange you glad you're buying bananas? Here's the juice on orange prices.

You do get your best ideas in the shower. The science of shower thoughts teaches us the importance of mind-wandering for creativity.

American religion is not dead. It's changing. Traditional worship may be in decline but meaningful growth can be found, Wendy Cadge and Elan Babchuck write for The Atlantic.

The 411 on electric tractors, is John Deere pushing them? AgWeb has an exclusive interview with Jahmy Hindman, the company's chief technology officer.

Ready for a reset? 13 tips to make your job less stressful.

Farmers' hopes for a respite from seven years of mainly bad news fade, amid market problems caused by pandemic

Idaho potato farmer Ryan can't sell his crop, so he's giving it away. (Associated Press photo by Pat Sutphin)

"President Trump promised this year to deliver a financial bonanza for American farmers, boosted by two historic trade deals that would free them from their dependence on government bailouts," write David J. Lynch, Annie Gowen and Laura Reiley of The Washington Post. "Instead, as the local Wendy’s runs out of hamburgers and some shelves at Costco lie bare, farmers are forced to euthanize millions of hogs and chickens, give away tons of unwanted potatoes, and pour out enough milk to fill a small lake. The closure of most U.S. restaurants amid the covid-19 pandemic has thrown the nearly $2 trillion food industry into chaos, convulsing specialized supply chains that are struggling to adjust."

The crisis "has exposed an agricultural economy that despite repeated injections of taxpayer support finds many farmers under growing and unexpected financial pressure," the Post reports. "Farmers this year face losses of more than $20 billion, according to the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Research Institute. Expectations of massive Chinese orders for American crops under the trade deal Trump signed shortly before traveling to Austin are clouded by an escalating war of words between Washington and Beijing over the novel coronavirus. With pandemic-related restaurant closures disrupting commercial links, farmers are being forced to plow under their crops and destroy their livestock rather than bring them to market."

Crop prices have generally declined since 2013, and farm bankruptcies are increasing. "Some analysts say only extraordinary federal aid will enable farmers to continue making their loan payments as the economy struggles to recover from the covid-19 pandemic," the Post reports. "Prices for commodities such as corn and wheat have dropped since March by double-digit percentages." The story quotes New York dairy farmer Scott Glezen, 43: “This is the worst I’ve ever seen it. And I’ve seen some very bad times.” The story has much more; read it here.

Successful Farming offers farmers nine tips for dealing with stress.

Crop-insurance deadline delayed as harvest problems and farmers' struggles continue; land prices go negative

As U.S. farmers conclude a difficult crop year, the outlook remains troubling. The downturn in agriculture echoes the one that led to the 1980s farm crisis, Farm Credit Administration Chairman Glen Smith told the House Agriculture Committee on Tuesday. The FCA regulates farm lenders.

Smith said the farm-lending system is "safe and sound" but officials are "very concerned and closely monitoring some weakening in credit quality." At a subcommittee meeting, he also compared the current economic climate to that of the early '80s, "citing economic trends like falling farm income, rising debt-to-asset ratios and concerns about the value of farmland," Ryan McCrimmon reports for Politico's Morning Agriculture. "Farmland values remain largely stable across the country. But that could change, Smith warned in his written remarks to the committee, if larger amounts of farmland go up for sale — like if farm bankruptcy rates continue ticking upward." Smith also noted the role of trade wars in agricultural instability in the late '70s and early '80s.

Meanwhile, abnormally wet weather continues to slow harvests, making it likely that some crops won't be harvested this year at all. "Instead, a good deal of corn in Northern states will likely have to wait until the spring of 2020 to be harvested, while soybeans left over winter might not be harvested at all," Ray Grabanski reports for Successful Farming. "That is going to lead to harvest losses much greater than factored so far into USDA numbers" estimating production.

Within the next two weeks, the corn harvest will be about 76 percent complete and soybeans 91% complete. It's not likely to go much higher, Grabanski writes: "Most of the corn not harvested never made maturity, and therefore is still very wet (25% to 35% moisture) and it is not economical to harvest now (and no propane is available to dry it)." And very wet soil, or snow, will block soybean harvests. But, Grabanski notes, China is buying more soybeans, so commodity prices could go up quickly if the trade war ends.

Almost three-quarters of the rural bankers surveyed for Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Index reported negative economic impacts from the trade war. The RMI is a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region where agriculture and energy are essential to the economy: Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

The overall index has been barely above growth-neutral for three of the past four months, buoyed by higher grain prices and trade bailout payments, writes Ernie Goss, the Creighton economist who compiles the report. However, prices for land continued to slide. "The confidence index, which reflects bank CEO expectations for the economy six months out, slumped to 36.5 from September’s 42.9, and continues to indicate a very negative economic outlook among bankers," Goss reports. This is because of the trade war with China and uncertainty about when or if the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement, will pass.

One banker complained to Goss that it was hard to make predictions because this year's planting and harvesting data isn't known -- or, if known by the Agriculture Department, isn't being made public.

Because of the delayed harvest, USDA is granting most farmers a second extension on crop insurance premium due dates, Dan Looker reports for Successful Farming. Normally, payments on spring-planted crops are due Sept. 30 and begin to accrue interest Oct. 1. USDA announced in August that it would defer interest until after Nov. 30; now it says farmers have until Jan. 31 to make interest-free payments on crops planted last spring. But if their payments are even a day late after Jan. 31, they'll be charged the retroactive interest that would have accrued since the original due date of Oct. 1.

After 18th ethanol plant idles, state corn-grower associations ask Trump to uphold the Renewable Fuel Standard

As corn growers await a biofuels deal President Trump has promised, another ethanol plant has shut down: the 90-million-gallon-a year plant of Siouxland Energy Cooperative in Sioux City, Iowa. "To date, 18 ethanol plants are known to have idled production with many more cutting back," Todd Neeley reports for DTN/The Progressive Farmer. "The biodiesel industry has seen nine plants close and others cut production, as well."

Siouxland "cited lost ethanol demand from the most recent round of 31 small-refinery exemptions to the Renewable Fuel Standard as the reason, the final straw in what has been a tough margin environment in the past year," Neeley reports.

Corn farmers and corn-based ethanol producers have been angered by the exemptions, which they see as the Trump administration's effort to appease oil interests, Neeley reports. On top of that, the administration announced in July that it would not increase the amount of corn-based ethanol required to be mixed into the nation's fuel but would increase the amount of cellulosic ethanol produced from grasses and woody plants.

"In recent weeks, it was reported Trump had reached a tentative agreement with lawmakers from ethanol-producing states that included reallocating biofuel gallons waived, among other things," Neeley reports. "The announcement of that agreement was expected soon, only to be put on hold following last week's White House meeting with senators from oil-producing states."

On Friday, leaders of corn-grower organizations in 23 states sent Trump an open letter saying the exemptions have cost 2,700 rural jobs and hurt demand for more than 300 million bushels of corn when the agriculture sector is already struggling.

The letter more or less suggests that the Environmental Protection Agency increase the amount of ethanol in the fuel mix to account for projected small-refinery exemptions in 2020. Doing that would allow the administration to keep granting waivers without hurting the program or corn interests, the letter says. Though the letter thanks the administration for allowing year-round sales of E15 fuel (15 percent ethanol), it contains what could be construed as a warning for Trump's 2020 re-election bid: "Frustration in the countryside is growing."

University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs writes, "The prospect of substantial growth in corn use for ethanol this marketing year seems limited. Barring a significant change in policy surrounding the RFS, a trade deal, or an unexpected jump in gasoline consumption, the prospects for corn use in ethanol appear set to match current USDA projections of 5.45 billion bushels, at best."

Agricultural economists say farmer bailout necessary, but criticize Trump and Congress for work on trade, ag supply

The two-year pricetag for farmer trade aid is an estimated $28 billion; some readers have asked agricultural economists Harwood Schaffer and Daryll Ray of the University of Tennesseee if that money could have been better spent on a different farm program.

In their latest "Policy Pennings" column, Schaffer and Ray say that the money is needed for farmer bailouts, but note that the government would have needed less money to bail out farmers "if the President had been more judicious in his handling of outstanding trade issues with China." They also take Congress to task: "If Congress had implemented a supply management program as the core of the 2018 Farm Bill, crop prices in general would be higher than they are today."

Schaffer and Ray take a deep dive into crop pricing and production trends of the past few years to support their argument. Read more here.

Moderate Democrats object to House plan to exclude farm-bailout money from bill that would keep government running

"House Democrats, amid a backlash from moderates, are backing away from a plan to block President Trump from extending new farm bailout funds, people briefed on the discussions said," Erica Werner and Jeff Stein report for The Washington Post. "Trump had authorized the bailout funds in response to an outcry from farmers who claimed they were caught in the middle of his trade war with China."

Last week, House Appropriations Chair Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., proposed excluding the farm bailout, which could cost almost $30 billion, from a short-term spending bill aimed at preventing a government shutdown on Oct. 1. But a number of moderate House Democrats, many representing rural districts, objected and said the continuing resolution should include language safeguarding the farm bailout program, Werner and Stein report.

Agriculture Committee Chair Collin Peterson, D-Minn., emphasized in a statement on Monday that he and other committee leaders were trying to protect the bailout. "As members of Congress who represent agricultural communities, we repeatedly hear from farmers in our districts whose livelihoods have been severely impacted by the ongoing trade wars," the statement said. "Although we mutually have concerns with President Trump’s approach to trade negotiations, we refuse to engage in the same tactics that punish our constituents and harm our communities that rely on agriculture. . . . We cannot and will not allow our farmers to be used as political pawns."

If Congress does not approve the bailout, some of the money Trump has promised may not be paid on the administration's schedule. That's because the Depression-era program Trump is using for the program, the Commodity Credit Corp., is expected to hit its $30 billion borrowing limit this year before the second round of payments are completed, the Post reports.

Leading Iowa soy farmers say trade war makes times 'pretty dire' and only billions in special aid keeps them with Trump

"Things are getting pretty dire" for soybean farmers who planted beans expecting the the trade war with China would be over, Iowa farmer John Heisdorffer, chairman of the American Soybean Association, told Sophie Quinton of Stateline, who writes, "The trade fight couldn’t come at a worse time for American farmers, who have endured over five years of low commodity prices."

Quinton notes, "China’s 25 percent tariff on U.S. soybeans remains in place, and trade tensions are rising. The Trump administration is planning an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods and Beijing announced this month that Chinese companies would stop buying all U.S. agricultural products." China once bought a third of the U.S. soy crop.

And it's not just China, Quinton points out: "Between April 2018 and mid-June, China, Canada, the European Union, India, Mexico and Turkey have levied tariffs on more than a thousand U.S. agricultural items — from pork and cheese to fruit juice and whiskey — in response to tariffs the United States levied on their goods, according to the Congressional Research Service, a nonpartisan agency that advises Congress. The tariffs imposed by Canada and Mexico were lifted."

Most farmers appear to be sticking with Trump; their trade-related losses have been eased by billions of dollars "market facilitation payments" that the administration was able to make from the Commodity Credit Corp. without congressional approval. Iowa Soybean Association President Lindsay Greiner told Quinton, “If it wasn’t for market facilitation payments, we would be losing a lot of money, and I think a lot of that support would probably start to go away pretty fast.”

Trump and Democrats ignore farmers' biggest issue, five years of low crop prices, agricultural policy experts write

President Trump and his Democratic challengers are ignoring "the critical issue facing the agricultural sector: low farm income brought on by five years of falling crop prices," Harwood D. Schaffer and Daryll E. Ray of the University of Tennessee write for The Daily Yonder.

"While there are alternate policies preferred by different farmers and farm organizations, there is virtually no dissension on identifying the problem," they write. "At the same time, farmers from left, right, and center agree that the current low prices are disastrous. Some see echoes of the 1980s in the rising level of farm bankruptcies."

Trump and the Democrats need to visit "rural, agricultural areas and listen and learn," write Ray and Schaffer, of UT's Agricultural Policy Research Center. "The candidates need to understand that the current low-price situation is no anomaly; agriculture is characterized by long periods of low prices punctuated by single years and short periods of higher prices."

And what should the politicians do? "From the perspective of social stability and humanitarian concerns, the objective should be to cultivate and maintain an agricultural sector in which productive capacity always exceeds current demand. To do otherwise would be ethically unacceptable." And what are political leaders doing to accomplish that? "From our perspective: not much."

"The Democrats have been silent" on such issues, the Trump administration wants the government to pay a smaller share of crop insurance, and the 2018 Farm Bill "does little to address the current price/income problems," with no new policies, they write, and existing programs "are simply inadequate to address the multi-year price problem that farmers are facing."

Trade-war package for farmers won't make them whole

The Trump administration's $12 billion aid package for farmers hurt by the trade war will have $7 to $8 billion in direct payments, less than the $11 billion hit farmers are expected to take in lower crop prices, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue said Saturday.

"Obviously this is not going to make farmers whole," Perdue told Hugh Bronstein of Reuters. He added that it will be a one-time thing: "It's for the 2018 crop. We do not expect to do this over a period of time."

The USDA's Commodity Credit Corp. will use existing legal authority to borrow the money from the Treasury and use it three ways: Direct cash payments to farmers of soybeans, sorghum, corn, wheat, cotton, dairy and hogs; government purchases of fruits, nuts, rice, legumes, beef, pork and milk for distribution to food banks and nutrition programs; and $200 million for a trade promotion program to develop new markets for American agricultural products.

Applications for the cash payments are expected to begin in Septemner, and "We expect the checks to go out in late September or October, as soon as they prove their yields," Perdue told Reuters. "They will be based on actual production, not historical averages." Read more here.