Tips and resources for reporting on crime data

The CDC has an active dashboard that maps death rates across the country 
by Census tract, county or state. (CDC map)

Tips from a recent webinar with three crime data experts, narrated by Clark Merrefield of The Journalist's Resource, can help local journalists report on crime trends, fact-check law enforcement, discuss policy, and foster a dialogue about community safety. An edited version of Merrefield's tips from the discussion is shared below.

Get to know The Trace’s Gun Violence Data Hub, which meets three major needs for crime data research and reporting:

• The help desk, where anyone "can ask questions of reporters and editors at The Trace," Merrefield writes. "Reach out for help understanding gun violence in the areas you cover; collecting, cleaning and analyzing data on gun violence."
• A resource page that houses fact sheets, guides, and a glossary, which can aid in investigations of all sizes.
• The data library for "trustworthy data on a range of gun violence topics, from ghost guns to suicide to road rage," Merrefield notes. "The library includes data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Transportation Security Administration and many others."

Explore data focused on public safety research and data:

• The WONDER database from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention includes numbers on gun deaths and compressed mortality data.
• The Gun Violence Archive, which "tracks gun violence incidents across the country from more than 7,500 sources, including law enforcement agencies and news media reports," Merrefield writes.
• The Mapping Police Violence provides up-to-date data on police-involved killings in the U.S. 
• The CDC dashboard, which maps violent death rates across the country by Census tract, county or state. 

 Learn which data can help you fact-check statements from public officials.

"Beyond published data on reported crimes, victimization surveys are a major source of crime data that journalists can use to vet statements from officials," Merrefield explains. "The best known is the National Crime Victimization Survey from the U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics. This survey each year reaches a nationally representative sample of roughly 240,000 people and asks whether they have been victims of personal or property crimes — and why the crime was or wasn’t reported to police."

To identify trends in a specific area, aim for at least 5 years of data.

If data doesn't make sense, question it. If it can't be verified, don't use it.

Merrefield's webinar panel experts included: Jeffrey A. Butts, a research professor at John Jay College of Criminal Justice and Executive Director of the John Jay Research and Evaluation Center; Mensah M. Dean, a staff writer at The Trace, a nonprofit newsroom that covers gun violence; and George LeVines, editor of The Trace’s Gun Violence Data Hub, which is open to the public. 

Opinion: Rural policing writer disagrees with Wall Street Journal article about rural law enforcement violence

Rural police officers have high rates of shootings, but they 
are also more likely to get shot. (Adobe Stock photo)

A Wall Street Journal story about violence in rural policing gets some concepts right; however, the story's data and overall conclusions are faulty, writes rural police reporter Kathleen Dias in her column for Police1. "I agree with the premise of the article: there really are a lot of harsh interactions between law enforcement and the public in rural places. . . . Where the WSJ writer and I disagree is in the conclusion he draws (that rural cops kill people because they are poorly trained or trained to overreact), the sources for his statistics, and his slant."

"Rural places have high rates of shootings by law enforcement and also of law enforcement officers who get shot; that’s not new information or a new trend," Dias explains. "The writer is also correct that rural agencies frequently lack the ability to use the tools of time, distance and backup to defuse volatile situations."

The article's primary focus is that "rural sheriffs are killing more civilians," Dias adds. "The writer cites Mapping Police Violence stating that since 2013, killings by sheriff’s deputies have risen 43% while killings by police have risen by 3%. . . . First, sheriff’s offices are not all rural [and] not all rural police interactions, lethal or otherwise, are by sheriff’s offices."

Overall, MPV as a source is "profoundly troublesome. 'Police violence' is a broad, provocative term," Dias explains. "The definition from MPV is 'Any incident where a law enforcement officer (off-duty or on-duty) applies, on a civilian, lethal force resulting in the civilian being killed. . . . I found incidents like an off-duty Virginia state trooper who killed a man who was breaking into his home, an off-duty officer who killed his domestic partner and then himself, an off-duty deputy who struck a bicycle rider at night on a Florida highway notorious for wrecks. . ."

The WSJ article uses examples that aren't rural. Dias writes, "The article is about rural police killings, yet the first several quotes are from urban sheriffs about their resources, their experiences and cultural changes they made."

There was an "implicit undertone in the WSJ article’s descriptions of small towns and remote places of the incongruity of violence in those places — that somehow a rural setting made violence even less acceptable than usual," Dias writes. "I believe that underscores the writer’s lack of understanding of rural places, and also the perception of risk by officers."

What rural officers do face is populations that are "more likely to be poor, addicted to alcohol and illegal substances, and to attempt or complete suicide than their urban neighbors," Dias points out. "Rural officers are often poorly paid, and departments do struggle with recruiting, retention and churn that can result in bad hiring choices."

Rural officers need more staff, higher pay, additional training and equipment that works. "I’ll go to the wall with the WSJ writer on those points," Dias adds. "The officers themselves are not the problem. Indeed, they’re expected to be the solution to every problem that comes the way of every other resident, but that’s impossible. They’re cops, not Swiss Army knives."

Read all of Dias' opinion, including her comparison of the WSJ article to a Washington Post story here.

More than half of American teachers are worried about a school shooting on their campus; parents are worried, too

1 in 4 U.S. teachers experienced a gun-related lockdown
at their school. (Adobe stock photo)

U.S. teachers must deftly manage tasks, lessons and discipline. To get the job done, educators make an average of 1,500 decisions a day. While that description sounds challenging, most teachers have the added worry of facing school gun violence, reports Jennifer Gerson of The 19th, a nonprofit newsroom for social issues.

"The majority of American K-12 public school teachers say they are at least somewhat worried about the possibility of a shooting at their school, according to a new survey conducted by the Pew Research Center," Gerson writes. "Fifty-nine percent told Pew researchers that they were concerned about shootings on their campuses, with 18% saying they were 'very' or 'extremely' worried. Only 7% of teachers polled said they were not worried at all."

More than two decades have passed since the Columbine High School massacre, but those years have not produced an answer to gun threats in schools. Gerson reports, "Last year, roughly 1 in 4 American teachers reported experiencing a gun-related lockdown at their school. Fifteen percent of respondents said they went through one emergency lockdown, with another 8 percent saying that it happened where they teach more than once."

Regardless of party affiliation, most surveyed teachers advocated for student mental health screening as part of the solutions. "A large majority — 69% — said they believed improving mental health screening and treatment for children and adults would be extremely or very effective in preventing school shootings," Gerson explains. "This emphasis was held across party lines, with 73% of Democratic teachers and 66% of Republican teachers saying that investment in mental health resources would be an extremely or very effective prevention tool."

Teachers aren't alone in their safety concerns -- many parents also profess a significant degree of worry. "A Pew Research Center study released last fall found that a third of American parents said they were extremely or very worried about a shooting at their child's school, with an additional 37 percent saying they were somewhat worried," Gerson reports.

New rule closes the 'gun show loophole' and will require more sellers to register as licensed firearms dealers

The new rule will dramatically increase firearm purchase
background checks. (PBS News Hour photo)

To deliver on gun control policy promises, the Biden administration has expanded the number of sellers who must register as federally licensed firearms dealers, reports Glenn Thrush and Erica L. Green of The New York Times. "That means those sellers must run background criminal and mental health checks on potential buyers. . . . [The change] is the broadest expansion of federal background checks and an attempt to regulate the shadow market of weapons sold online, at gun shows and through private sellers that have contributed to gun violence."

Although President Biden was blocked from implementing universal background checks for gun buyers, the administration used the bipartisan gun control law passed in 2022 to "achieve an elusive policy goal that enjoys widespread public support: closing the so-called gun show loophole," Thrush and Green write. "The new regulation, which is likely to face legal challenges, could add as many as 23,000 federal dealers to the 80,000 already regulated by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives."

In many states, the gun show loophole allowed "unlicensed private sellers to legally sell at gun shows, out of their houses and through online platforms without having to submit to the background check system created to prevent sales to children, criminals, domestic abusers, and people with mental illnesses or drug addictions," the Times reports. "Four in 10 illegal gun cases tracked by the bureau from 2017 to 2021 involved such unregulated sales."

The new rule aims to accomplish two goals. It will "pull legitimate sellers into the regulatory sunlight and, second, to deprive brokers who knowingly traffic in criminal gun sales of a legal shield provided by the vagaries of federal firearms laws," Thrush and Green explain. Previous rules required gun sellers who made their chief income selling guns to join the federal system, but that wording has changed and now includes sellers who "predominantly derive a profit" to register. "Failing to register carries a penalty of up to five years in prison and $250,000 in fines."

Guns 'destroyed' in community buy-back programs often have parts that are removed and resold

A background check is usually not required to purchase a parts
kit from Gunbusters. (Gunbusters photo via the Times)

Community leaders and well-meaning citizens have encouraged gun destruction programs, but in truth, only some parts are destroyed and other parts are removed and resold, reports Mike McIntire of The New York Times. "Communities are fueling a secondary arms market, where weapons slated for destruction are recycled into civilian hands, often with no background check required, according to interviews and a review of gun disposal contracts, patent records and online listings for firearms parts."

People may think relinquished guns are melted down or pulverized because gun disposal companies market "destruction," but that's not the whole story. "This little-known but profitable corner of the firearms economy exists because the approved method of destroying a gun contains a loophole that has been exploited," McIntire explains. "To be able to say a gun is destroyed, disposal companies crush or cut up a single piece that federal law classifies as a firearm: the receiver or frame that anchors the other components and contains the required serial number. The businesses can then sell the remaining parts as a kit: barrel, trigger, grip, slide, stock, springs — essentially the entire gun, minus the regulated piece."

McIntire reports: "Some public officials and gun safety advocates said they had no clue this was happening. The Rev. Chris Yaw, whose Episcopal church outside Detroit has sponsored buybacks with local officials, said in an interview that he was 'aghast and appalled' when told by a reporter how the process works."

Part of the reason gun destruction companies sell parts is because their service is free. Scott Reed, president of the Gunbusters company, which patented a firearms "pulverizer," told McIntire, "Our services are free for law enforcement agencies. If we can't cover our costs by selling parts, then we charge them." McIntire reports, "Only about two percent of Gunbusters' clients pay to have the full firearm destroyed, he said. Federal agencies, including the Secret Service, are among them."

It's hard to know if those gun parts wind up back on the streets. "Salvaged gun parts typically do not include a serial number that can be traced," McIntire writes. "But while the parts kits have legitimate uses, they could also further the spread of so-called ghost guns when paired with an untraceable receiver or frame, said Nicholas Suplina, a senior lawyer with Everytown for Gun Safety. The number of do-it-yourself ghost guns turning up in violent crimes has surged, made possible by unfinished components — prefabricated metal pieces that need welding and drilling — that are not serialized, and often do not require a background check when purchased separately."

Many rural counties are poorly equipped to deal with rising gun homicides; some of the worst rates are in the South

From 2016 to 2020, Phillips County had the country’s highest per capita
rate of gun homicides. (Photo by Renuka Rayasam, KFF Health News)

Homicides involving guns are often considered an urban problem, but rural America has its own firearm traumas that few communities have the resources to address effectively. "Nationwide, rural gun homicides have risen, and, in some areas, outpaced their urban counterparts. From 2016 to 2020, 13 of the 20 counties with the highest gun homicide rates were in the rural South, according to the Center for American Progress, a policy research institute, reports Renuka Rayasam for The Daily Yonder.

Elaine, Arkansas, pop. 500, is a dramatic example, "Phillips County, where Elaine is located, is home to about 15,000 people spread across 690 square miles. Data shows they're at high risk of gun violence. From 2016 to 2020, the Phillips County had the country's highest per capita rate of gun homicides, according to an analysis last year by the CAP," Rayasam writes. "During three days in July, police responded to reports of four homicides in Helena-West Helena, the Phillips County seat. That might be a small number for a major city, but it has an outsize impact in a rural town," said Nick Wilson, senior director for gun violence prevention at the Center for American Progress. The sheer number of deaths can devastate communities that often lack resources to stem gun violence or mental health services to help traumatized residents. Also, the nearest medical centers to treat victims are often miles away.

Segregated communities, racism and poverty add to social tensions that can lead to violent outcomes. Phillips County has "a harrowing history of racism," Rayasam reports. "In 1919, Elaine was the site of one of the worst racial massacres in U.S. history. At least 200 Black residents were murdered by white residents and soldiers over a couple of days after a group of Black farmers met one late September evening to demand better payments for their cotton crops." Daniel Webster, a distinguished scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, told Rayasam: "These disadvantages are structural and driven by policy rather than naturally occurring. The conditions that lead to structural racism also lead to higher rates of gun violence. . . . These places have lacked investment, where poverty is rampant, unemployment is high, schools are failing, and buildings are crumbling."

"Under those conditions, even small stressors, like a fight over a cigarette, can lead to a shooting, researchers say. Most homicides in Phillips County, as in urban areas, stem from interpersonal or domestic disputes," Rayasam adds. "A few years ago, a man in Helena shot a man who allegedly stole butter beans from his garden."

Hicks Gilbert, who became Elaine's first Black and female mayor, is working on changing "'the mindset of what is possible,'" Rayasam reports. "She is requiring public housing operators to keep properties up to code, bringing in dumpsters to encourage residents to clean up trash, tearing down dilapidated houses, hiring young people to work in city government and at the community center, and starting a tutoring program." But progress can be slow and "persistent poverty and violence take an emotional toll, said Steven Cannon, a pastor who also runs an after-school community center in West Helena." Cannon told Rayasam, "What you see can be depressing at times, especially on a young generation."

Reporting on a rural county's political transformation, driven in part by outside forces, leads to threats of violence

Doni Chamberlain worked as a reporter for 10 years before starting
her own online publication. (Photo by Marlena Sloss, The Guardian)

When local politics become driven by outside forces, community reporting can become dangerous, especially if it focuses on the transformation of a rural county by those forces. Ask Doni Chamberlain of A News Cafe in Northern California.

"In a seemingly long-gone era – before the Trump presidency, and Covid, and the 2020 election – Doni Chamberlain would get the occasional call from a displeased reader who had taken issue with one of her columns. They would sometimes call her stupid and use profanities. . . . Today when people don't like her pieces, Chamberlain said, they tell her she's a communist who doesn't deserve to live. One local conservative radio host said she should be hanged," reports Dani Anguiano of The Guardian. "Chamberlain, 66, has worked as a journalist in Shasta County for nearly 30 years. Never before in this far-northern California outpost has she witnessed such open hostility towards the press. She has learned to take precautions. No meeting sources in public. She livestreams rowdy events where the crowd is less than friendly and doesn’t walk to her car without scanning the street. Sometimes, restraining orders can be necessary tools."

Chamberlain has published stories "revealing that police were investigating the county’s top candidate for said CEO job, a leader of a California secessionist group, for an incident with a teenage girl at a local business . . . an analysis from the county clerk about the risks of introducing an untested manual tally voting system in response to disproven theories about Dominion voting machines . . . a large gathering held in defiance of Covid restrictions; a pandemic shortage of nurses temporarily closing a local neonatal intensive care unit; and a sheriff’s deputy promoting far-right extremist content on social media."

Chamberlain started A News Cafe after being laid off from her job as a columnist for the local weekly newspaper, the Shasta Scout. It reported on a "hanging threat" seemingly directed at her: "Vaguely threatening statements towards the media were made as a part of a recent podcast produced by 'Red, White and Blueprint,' an effort to document attempts to recall Shasta County Supervisor Leonard Moty," who lost his seat over anti-pandemic mandates, the Scout's Annelise Pierce wrote. "As the show was coming to a close, Clendenen spoke about the Nuremberg Trials, tribunals held by the Allies after World War II that ultimately prosecuted many of Nazi Germany's leaders. He said, 'I think in our own country there's a day coming that the media will have to pay, in one way or another. . . . I'm not saying that we're going to hang them.'"

Shasta County (Wikipedia map)

Chamberlain told Anguiano that Shasta County has a "perfect storm" of hard-right groups that have coalesced "to form a powerful political force with outside funding and publicity from fringe figures," Angiano wriites. "Anger coalesced into an anti-establishment movement backed financially by the Connecticut millionaire Reverge Anselmo. . . . Chamberlain's writing has made her a public enemy of the conservative crowd intent on remaking the county. Far-right leaders have confronted her at rallies and public meetings, mocking and berating her." Chamberlain told Anguiano, "This isn't how it's supposed to be to be a journalist. I shouldn't go to my car, afraid one of these guys is gonna bash me in the head with a baseball bat."

Chamberlain says the atmosphere makes finding sources difficult, and many people are afraid of speaking out, "even anonymously, "Anguiano reports. "Her family worries for her. Her son has put cameras all around the house. For Mother's Day, he gifted her gel pepper spray. . . . Chamberlain's twin sister has warned her not to poke the bear." She told Anguino, "I say, 'I'm not poking a bear, I'm just holding a flashlight. . . . I'm reporting things other people can't report. . . . I feel a moral responsibility to let people know what's happening.'"

Okla. official who discussed killing weekly's journalists quits

"A county commissioner in far southeast Oklahoma who was identified by a local newspaper as one of several officials caught on tape discussing killing reporters and lynching Black people has resigned from office," Sean Murphy of The Associated Press reports. A spokesperson for Gov. Kevin Stitt "said the office received a handwritten resignation letter from McCurtain County Commissioner Mark Jennings."

The McCurtain Gazette surreptitiously recorded Jennings' conversation with Sheriff Kevin Clardy, sheriff’s Capt. Alicia Manning and Jail Administrator Larry Hendrix after a county commission meeting. "During that conversation, Clardy, Manning and Jennings appear to discuss Bruce Willingham — the longtime publisher of the Gazette-News — and his son Chris Willingham, a reporter," Murphy recounts.

“I know where two deep holes are dug if you ever need them,” Jennings said, and Clardy replied, “I’ve got an excavator.” Jennings also said he has known “two or three hit men” in Louisiana, and “They’re very quiet guys.” Jennings also appeared to complain about not being able to hang Blacks.

In a post on the sheriff’s office Facebook page on Tuesday, officials did not address the recorded discussion but claimed the recording was illegally obtained," Murphy reports. Bruce Willingham said he left a recorder on after the meeting because he suspected that the officials were conducting business in violation of the state Open Meetings Act.

The unending tragedy of Sutherland Springs: Life goes on, but for some shooting victims, wounds and losses remain

David Colbath visits the church where he was shot nine times.
It now serves as a memorial to the dead. (Photo by Lisa Krantz, The Washington Post)

On a quiet Sunday morning in November 2017, the First Baptist of Church of the rural hamlet of Sutherland Springs, Texas, was filled with worshipers. Around 11 a.m., Devin Patrick Kelley entered the church, "Wielding a Ruger AR-556 rifle, fired 450 military-grade bullets inside the church within minutes. . . . Over two dozen parishioners were killed," report Silvia Foster-Frau and Holly Bailey of The Washington Post. "Twenty others were wounded, sentenced to lives of unending pain and illness."

A 25-year-old woman survived the attack but now struggles to live. "Multitudes of purple freckles dot Morgan Workman's legs, arms, chest and cheekbone — tiny shards of metal from bullets and shrapnel that struck her as she worshiped in her church more than five years ago," the Post explains. "The fragments are leaching lead. Workman suffers from toxicity symptoms, including body pains, fatigue, depression — and has been told by doctors that she probably can't have a baby. . . . Workman was shot twice."

Entire families were decimated. "John Holcombe and his now-12-year-old daughter, Evelyn, cling to each other for support. His pregnant wife, Crystal, had shielded Evelyn from the gunman and was killed along with Evelyn's three siblings and grandparents," the Post reports. Rusty Duncan, a paramedic who happened to be driving by and was one of the first responders, described the scene to the Post, "It was like walking into a war zone where everyone was already dead. . . . It looked like a bomb went off in there. . . Just pieces of people everywhere."

"David Colbath was shot nine times in the arm, leg and back. He recalled needing six surgeries in the weeks after the shooting, as doctors decided which bullet fragments to remove and which were buried so deep they were better left inside him," the Post reports. "He takes eight to 12 ibuprofen pills a day, he said, in addition to a handful of Tylenol at night." Colbath told the Post, "I've normalized pain every night. I've normalized pain every day. I'll never be normal again."

Life goes on, but will never be the same. "Five years on, many in the working-class town of 600 — nestled in the dusty-road countryside an hour southeast of San Antonio — still attend services every Sunday. They pray in a new church built next to the old one. The sanctuary, funded by donations from around the country, has fortified walls and security cameras," the Post reports. "Many of the congregants — in addition to those in the church's new security team — carry guns on their hips for protection. . . . Children hobble through the pews with leg braces. Men carry colostomy bags that sometimes leak. Some, like Workman, are marked by sprays of odd-looking freckles. . . . Every Sunday, they chime a bell in the church's tower where 25 portraits of those lost hang high, along with an image of angels to honor Crystal's unborn child."

After the shooting, professionals assessed the combined carnage of a killer's malice and his choice of weapon. "Kelley stormed the church and stalked the aisles, shooting people at point-blank range. He fired 196 times inside the church in 16 separate bursts. . . . The dead ranged from age 1 to 77," the Post reports. "Terry Snyder, a longtime Texas Ranger among the first on the scene, later described seeing victims where bullets had 'disintegrated the skull' — including a toddler's." Snyder told the Post, "Even the survivors, the wounds that I saw … it was unbelievable, just the damage the bullet would cause." 

Update:
The Justice Department has reached a $144.5 million settlement with the surviving family members from the Sutherland Springs massacre, reports Glenn Thrush of The New York Times. The Texas church shooting killed 26 people and "lead to an acrimonious legal battle in which the government claimed it was not liable for its failure to update the national firearms background check system. . . . Attorney General Merrick B. Garland has signed off on the deal, which lawyers in the Justice Department’s civil division negotiated with lawyers representing the families of victims and survivors. . . . The settlement is among the largest of its kind, exceeding previous ones the department reached over mass shootings that stemmed from the government’s failure to take steps to prevent mass shootings by sharing intelligence and other information that might have been used to stop them."

Once a shunned gun, the AR-15 is now America's most popular firearm; it was never intended for public use

Image from The Washington Post

How did a gun that was never made for mass use become America's favorite? The AR-15's beginnings are quiet: "Originally designed as a soldiers’ rifle in the late 1950s. 'An outstanding weapon with phenomenal lethality,' an internal Pentagon report raved. It soon became standard issue for U.S. troops in the Vietnam War, where the weapon earned a new name: the M16," report Todd C. Frankel, Shawn Boburg, Josh Dawsey, Ashley Parker and Alex Horton of The Washington Post. "Few gunmakers saw a semiautomatic version of the rifle as a product for ordinary people. It didn’t seem suited for hunting. It seemed like overkill for home defense. Gun executives doubted many buyers would want to spend their money on one. . . . The industry’s biggest trade shows banished the AR-15 to the back."

The move to market the AR-15 "began after the 2004 expiration of a federal assault weapons ban that had blocked the sales of many semiautomatic rifles. A handful of manufacturers saw a chance to ride a post-9/11 surge in military glorification. . . . This transformation — from made-for-combat weapon to mass-market behemoth and cultural flash point — is the product of a sustained and intentional effort that has forged an American icon," the Post writes. Randy Luth, the founder of gunmaker DPMS, one of the earliest companies to market AR-15s, told the Post, “We made it look cool. The same reason you buy a Corvette.”

The numbers tell the story: "Ten of the 17 deadliest U.S. mass shootings since 2012 have involved AR-15s. . . . after repeated mass killings involving the AR-15 that accounted for some of the nation’s darkest moments, efforts in Congress to resurrect an assault weapons ban repeatedly fizzled," the Post reports. "Calls by Democratic politicians to renew the ban fell short, with some in their own party voting against it at key moments. Almost no Republican would even entertain the idea." Sen. Chris Murphy, a vocal supporter of stronger gun laws, told the Post, “The protection of the AR-15 has become the number one priority for the gun lobby. It makes it harder to push this issue on the table because the gun lobby does so much messaging around it.”

Associated Press table from Northeastern U. Mass Killing Database

"Today, the AR-15 is the best-selling rifle in the United States, industry figures indicate. About 1 in 20 U.S. adults — or roughly 16 million people — own at least one AR-15. . . . Today, the industry estimates that at least 20 million AR-15s are stored and stashed across the country," the Post reports. "Video games introduced a new generation to the AR-15 through popular first-person shooter games such as 'Call of Duty.' Players got to simulate using military weapons with down-to-the-bolt realism."

The Post provides an AR-15 convert as an example: "Bill Shanley saw his first AR-15 up close when one of his adult sons came home with one in 2010. Father and son took the AR-15 to a gun range. Shanley couldn’t believe how loud it was. . . . . But the black rifle had little recoil. It was fun to shoot. Three shots with his old hunting rifle bruised his shoulder. Fifty rounds with the AR-15 felt like a breeze. Shanley was sold. He soon bought his own, a Smith & Wesson M&P 15." Shanley told the Post, "The AR is the modern-day musket."

"The AR-15 was also especially alluring to the gunman who killed 10 Black people at a supermarket in Buffalo in May 2022," the Post writes. "'The AR-15 and its variants are very deadly when used properly,' he wrote in a manifesto filled with hateful vitriol. 'Which is the reason I picked one.'. . . Ten days later, 19 schoolchildren and two adults were shot to death in Uvalde, Tex., with another AR-15, the Daniel Defense DDM4."

As threats of political violence increase, leaders need to take it seriously and tone down their rhetoric, expert writes

Darrell West

OPINION By Darrell West

Vice president and director, Governance Studies, Brookings Institution

Following the FBI raid on former President Donald Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago last week, one of his supporters tried to attack an FBI office in Cincinnati. After being repulsed, there was a high-speed car chase that resulted in shots being fired at the police and the suspect being killed.

Members of Congress have been getting death threats that have forced a number of them to obtain security details to safeguard their personal safety. Representatives such as Adam Kinzinger, Liz Cheney, and Nancy Pelosi have received detailed threats of violence that necessitated enhanced protections.

In response to these threats, Rep. Kinzinger noted that “threats of violence over politics has increased heavily in the last few years. But the darkness has reached new lows.” According to news reports, one caller “threatened to come to Kinzinger’s house and go after his wife and his newborn baby.”

A GOP gubernatorial candidate in New York was attacked onstage while giving an election speech. In front of startled attendees, a man with a knife jumped onstage and sought to stab Lee Zeldin, before on-lookers subdued the individual and prevented serious harm to the candidate. Academic experts are not immune to this onslaught either. One-quarter of my Governance Studies residential scholars have been the object of credible death threats.

Others warn that the possibility of armed conflict is real. “There is suddenly a very real risk of violent political instability in this country for the first time in more than 150 years,” noted Joel B. Pollak of the conservative Breitbart News. It does not help that some Republican leaders have fueled public outrage by pledging if they regain majority control of the U.S. House, they will hold legislative hearings on the Department of Justice, FBI, members of the January 6 Select Committee, and private organizations critical of the former chief executive as that escalates political rhetoric and encourages GOP supporters to think something amiss is happening that justifies a strong response.

The rise both of threats and actual violence shows the dangerous levels of polarization, extremism, and radicalization that we face in America today. In the current period, people see opponents as enemies and many do not trust the motives or actions of opposition leaders. The lack of civility has reached such a dangerous level that it threatens the safety of leaders, the functioning of law enforcement, and our society’s ability to address major problems.

Given the variety of contemporary threats, it is important to take political violence seriously and undertake actions that mitigate these risks. For example, the Department of Homeland Security needs to expand its domestic terrorism unit to monitor violent threats. A 2022 DHS report recommended the federal government improve its case management capabilities, train workforces on how to deal with violent activities, and work with local officials on reducing domestic terrorism.

The FBI should increase its enforcement actions against people in organizations who foment violence. Federal agents should enforce current laws and direct resources against those who encourage violence. Many violent incidents are presaged by online rhetoric so keeping track of dark web chatrooms would help law enforcement identify those with violent tendencies.

Our intelligence agencies must be alert regarding possible foreign support of extremist groups. News reports have suggested that foreign entities might have provided money to alt-right figures who were part of the January 6, 2021 insurrection. In addition, there has been evidence that “Russian state and proxy media outlets ‘have amplified themes related to the violent and chaotic nature of the Capitol Hill incident, impeachment of President Trump, and social media censorship.’”

Social-media companies need to be a better job of policing violent content on their websites. Firms are using artificial intelligence to slow the dissemination of violent threats, but some are making money from organizations that advertise on their sites. It is fool-hearty and short-sighted for businesses to profit from the rise of violence in America.

Ultimately, political leaders need to tone down their inflammatory rhetoric. Reacting to various events with divisive rhetoric or threats of retaliation encourages people to act on that language. Leaders should understand that words have consequences and how they lead has major ramifications for the health of our polity.

This article has been edited. For the full original, click here.

Bipartisan gun deal includes funding for telehealth coverage for Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program

In response to recent violent shootings, the Senate is moving an 80-page bipartisan deal meant to reduce gun violence. One provision, not widely reported, to expand telehealth coverage for patients with Medicaid or Children's Health Insurance Program coverage so more people can access mental health-care, Cara Smith reports for Inside Health Policy.

A maximum of 18 months after the bill becomes law, the Department of Health and Human Services would be required to provide technical assistance and guidance to states to improve telehealth access for Medicaid and CHIP enrollees. "The guidance would address adopting telehealth flexibilities to expand access to care, billing codes and practices, integrating telehealth services into value-based care models, strategies to deliver culturally competent care via telehealth and other best practices," Smith reports. The language in that part of the bill is identical to that of legislation released in May by the Senate Finance Committee.

"Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., the lead Democratic negotiator, is hailing the bill as the biggest breakthrough on the issue of gun violence in 30 years and predicted Tuesday it would save lives," Alexander Bolton reports for The Hill. "Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the head Republican in the talks, says the legislation will take guns out of the hands of people who are dangerous or break the law but won’t affect the gun rights of law-abiding citizens."

Here are some other provisions in the bill:

• Enhanced background checks for gun buyers under 21, to search juvenile criminal records. This provision would expire in 2032, so a future Congress would have to vote to extend it.
• Expand a grant program that allows states to use federal funding to implement crisis-intervention programs to reduce gun violence. States could use the money to support "red flag" laws to take guns away from people deemed a danger to themselves or others but would not be required to have such laws, a key Republican point at the end of negotiations.
• Close the "boyfriend loophole," meaning a person convicted of misdemeanor violence against a recent dating partner would lose the right to buy or possess a firearm for at least five years.
• Require the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to provide states with resources to expand mental-health programs in schools.
• Expand Medicaid funding for certified community behavioral health clinics, allowing up to 10 new states to opt into the program every 10 years.
• Establish a new, specific criminal offense for gun traffickers and straw purchasers with tougher penalties.

Extremist positions enter political mainstream; Calif. official in recall vote today says he barely recognizes his town

"Candidates for political office and sitting politicians across the country are increasingly embracing extremist talking points, endorsing hateful campaigns and promoting conspiracy theories, according to two recent studies and experts who research extremist movements," USA Today reports.

The first report, last week from the Anti-Defamation League, "showed that candidates for local, state and federal offices have parroted white-supremacist propaganda, expressed support for conspiracy theories including QAnon, and spread lies about election fraud," Will Carless reports. Another study from the voting rights advocacy organization Public Wise identified more than 220 officials or candidates who participated in or "directly supported: the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection, "either by spreading disinformation about the election before the riot or by expressing support for the rioters." Some politicians take extremist viewpoints because they hope to attract supporters of former president Donald Trump, Oren Segal, vice-president of the ADL's Center on Extremism, told Carless.

Or, politicians may simply hope to appease such voters. A recall election in a rural California county shows how far to the right some conservatives have moved, and what can happen when politicians don't cater to extremist beliefs, Scott Shafer reports for KQED in Northern California.

Militia members, led by former Marine Carlos Zapata, have packed Shasta County supervisor meetings since 2020, warning supervisors not to enforce pandemic health rules. Recently, they collected enough signatures to force a recall election for Supervisor Leonard Moty today. Moty, a lifelong Republican and former police chief, told Shafer that he barely recognizes the town he's lived in his whole life: "It's very alarming and shocking to me. They try to shout you down and beat you up with their lies and information until subsequently you just give up."

Zapata said at a 2020 meeting that, though he wasn't threatening violence, Shasta County was "not going to be peaceful much longer . . . I'm not a criminal. I've never been a criminal. But I'm telling you that good citizens are going to turn into real concerned and revolutionary citizens real soon." It may not be empty words: A recent survey from The Covid States Project found that independent and Republican men were the most likely of any party or gender to say that violent protest against the government is justifiable right now.

GOP consultant Mike Madrid told Shafer the recall shows how extreme the Republican Party has become in the state: "We're witnessing really what is probably the first attempt in the nation for a militia-backed organization to unseat Trump-supporting Republicans simply because they're trying to make government work and government function." The militia has a podcast for like-minded listeners across the country, and says the recall is a blueprint for conservatives in other states, Shafer reports.

Killings were up a record 29.4% in 2020; first-time gun ownership rose from 32% to 39%, biggest rise in decades

Gun deaths by county type, 2015-21 (Washington Post chart; click image to enlarge)

"Killings in the United States jumped nearly 30 percent last year, according to Federal Bureau of Investigation data released Monday that indicate a growing number of gun-related slayings amid the pandemic," Devlin Barrett and David Nakamura report for The Washington Post. "While different places saw different rates of increase in killings, the rise was nearly universal across the country, occurring in small towns, big cities, and many places in between."

The 29.4 percent increase in murder and manslaughter is "the largest one-year increase since such the federal government began compiling national figures in the 1960s," Barrett and Nakamura report. "That historic increase has been known for some time, and has sparked concern from police officials and prosecutors. But the FBI release of data compiled from thousands of law enforcement agencies formally confirms the trend. Overall, violent crime rose 5.6 percent in 2020, while property crimes fell 7.8 percent, the FBI said. Assaults increased 12 percent, according to the bureau."

First-time gun ownership jumped from 32% of Americans to 39% last year, the largest such increase in decades. It's unclear how much that trend contributed to the increase in gun violence and deaths, but an analysis "found the higher the jump in gun sales between 2019 and 2020, the higher the jump in gun violence that resulted in at least one death," the Post reports.

Local reporter pushed and punched several times while covering anti-mask, anti-vaccine rally in Traverse City, Mich.

Brandon Quealy

The Grand Traverse County Sheriff's Office in Michigan is investigating a complaint that a Traverse City Record-Eagle reporter was punched in the face while attempting to cover an anti-mask, anti-vaccine rally last week, Mardi Link reports for the Record-Eagle.

The incident happened when reporter Brendan Quealy went to a public park in a nearby township Thursday to cover an event organized by Citizens Liberating Michigan. The group opposes masking and vaccine mandates, and announced the event after the local school board voted to require masking for all K-12 students and staff through Sept. 27, Link reports.

After Quealy began recording audio of the event with his cellphone, an event organizer, Heather Cerone, told him they did not authorize recording of the event, and claimed it was on private property because they rented the park pavilion. She directed people to stand in front of Quealy to prevent him from seeing what was going on, Link reports. Quealy told investigators that two men approached him and told him to leave, pushed him, and one of the men pushed him into a wooden fence and punched him in the face with both fists.

Traverse City (Wikipedia map)

The county prosecutor told Link that, though a pavilion may be rented for a private function, other people—including reporters—have the right to be in areas surrounding the pavilion, and event holders must accept that the pavilion is open-air and that their events may be seen and heard by others.

Sheriff Tom Bensley told the Record-Eagle that some people "are not happy with the news outlets," and said this was the second anti-news media incident he's seen recently. The first incident happened in May, when Gov. Gretchen Whitmer visited rural Leelanau County. Sheriff's deputies arrested a man after a local television news crew recorded him trying to destroy a microphone and spitting at the camera, Link reports.

Wide range of researchers warn social media, other poorly understood new tech could endanger democracy, health

In a newly published paper, 17 researchers from widely different fields say academics should study the impact of new technology—like social media—on society as a "crisis discipline" tantamount to the way scientists try to protect endangered species or stop global warming. 

"The paper argues that our lack of understanding about the collective behavioral effects of new technology is a danger to democracy and scientific progress," Shirin Ghaffary reports for Vox. "For example, the paper says that tech companies have 'fumbled their way through the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, unable to stem the 'infodemic' of misinformation' that has hindered widespread acceptance of masks and vaccines. The authors warn that if left misunderstood and unchecked, we could see unintended consequences of new technology contributing to phenomena such as 'election tampering, disease, violent extremism, famine, racism, and war.'"

One of the authors, Carl Bergstrom, studies infectious disease epidemiology. "My sense is that social media in particular — as well as a broader range of internet technologies, including algorithmically driven search and click-based advertising — have changed the way that people get information and form opinions about the world," he told Ghaffary. The paper, he said, is "a call to arms. It’s saying, 'Hey, we’ve got to solve this problem, and we don’t have a lot of time.'"

Violence Against Women Act revision has provisions with rural resonance; Senate gun ban for stalkers is an issue

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act which would make significant changes that aim to mitigate abuse and violence against women through grant money. Domestic violence has increased in rural America during the pandemic, and rural women may generally have a harder time seeking help because of isolation.

"First authored by then-Sen. Joe Biden and the late Rep. Louise Slaughter in 1994, VAWA has been updated multiple times since then in order to best address current needs that people face. In 2013, for instance, lawmakers pushed through changes that would extend the provisions of the law to cover same-sex couples,"  Li Zhou reports for Vox. "In the latest reauthorization, lawmakers aim to strengthen protections for women facing sexual violence by ensuring that non-tribal offenders on tribal lands can be held accountable, and by closing the so-called 'boyfriend loophole,' which would bar anyone convicted of stalking from obtaining a firearm. Additionally, the bill includes funds for housing vouchers, so survivors in federally-assisted housing are able to relocate quickly if they need to. It guarantees, too, that people will be able to obtain unemployment insurance if they have to leave a job because of concerns for their safety."

The bill will face an uphill battle in the Senate because of the gun-loophole closure, Zhou reports.

Analysis: Capitol riot arrestees not disproportionately rural

Daily Yonder chart; click on the image to enlarge it.

"Extremists like those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6 are no more likely to be from small towns or rural areas than from any other parts of America, say experts who study far-right movements," Anya Slepyan reports for The Daily Yonder. "Since the insurrection, more than 180 people have been arrested for their involvement in the violent incursion on the Capitol. The Daily Yonder’s analysis of those arrests shows that the rioters came from . . . urban, suburban, and rural counties at about the same rate as the overall population. And those arrested were only slightly more likely than the overall population to come from counties that Donald Trump won by a landslide."

The rioters were unified neither by geography nor ideology, according to Madelyn Webb of anti-misinformation organization First Draft. They ranged from libertarian anti-vaxxers to anti-abortion activists to QAnon conspiracy theorists. "The thing that all these people have in common is that they think the election results were manipulated," she told Slepyan.

The Yonder's Tim Marema writes, "About 14% of the U.S. population lives in rural, or nonmetropolitan, counties. Only 10% of the people arrested for the Capitol riot list their homes in one of these rural counties. That means rural people are under-represented on the list of arrestees versus their share of the population." No such data is available for the people who stormed the Capitol and were not arrested, or went through police lines but didn't breach the building.

Fact-checking President Biden's inauguration speech

President Biden "delivered a traditional speech at his inauguration that offered little for fact-checkers," FactCheck.org says. "When he did offer us some facts to check, the 46th president of the United States largely hit his marks on domestic threats, Covid-19 and the Woman Suffrage Parade of 1913." 

Biden said there has been a rise in "political extremism, white supremacy, domestic terrorism." He's correct about the rise in political extremism, FactCheck says. The Department of Homeland Security's Homeland Threat Assessment report in October said as much. As for white supremacy, the Southern Poverty Law Center said in 2019 that the number of white nationalist group chapters had increased from 100 in 2017 to 148 in 2018. The Federal Bureau of Investigation reported a 19.5% increase in hate crimes from 2016 to 2019, and noted that hate-crime perpetrators were increasingly white: In 2016, 46.3% of known hate offenders were white; that rose to 52.5% in 2019. In September, FBI Director Christopher Wray said "racially motivated violent extremism" made up the largest share of domestic terrorism, especially white supremacist movements.

Biden said the coronavirus pandemic has "taken as many lives in one year as America lost in all of World War II." FactCheck acknowledges being nit-picky on this one, but says "Biden would have been on firmer ground had he said there have been more Covid-19 deaths than 'battle deaths' from WWII. As of Biden's speech, 402,997 had died in the U.S. from Covid-19. According to the Department of Veterans Affairs, 405,399 soldiers died in World War II, but 113,842 of them were not in battle.

Biden said millions of jobs have been lost and hundreds of thousands of business have closed during the pandemic. Though the U.S. has 9.8 million fewer jobs now than in February 2020, the total number of businesses that have permanently closed due to the pandemic is unknown. "Hundreds of thousands" is likely correct though, according to several different estimates.

The president also referenced the Woman Suffrage Parade of 1913, during which he said "thousands of protesters tried to block brave women marching for the right to vote." That's accurate, FactCheck reports: "On March 3, 1913, the day before President-elect Woodrow Wilson’s inauguration, more than 5,000 marchers paraded down Pennsylvania Avenue in support of women’s right to vote." Crowds of men, mostly in town for Wilson's inauguration, blocked and harassed marchers. "In all, 100 marchers were injured and taken to the hospital, and a troop of cavalry from Virginia was called in to control the crowd, according to the Library of Congress essay," FactCheck reports.

For extra reading, The Washington Post has created an annotated version of Biden's speech that analyzes key statements.

Trump-supporting evangelicals may face a reckoning; it's a divide that should be explored by rural journalists

Pastor Bob Rodgers of Louisville cursed those who oppose Trump
and "have stolen this election." (footage captured by WXIA-TV)

In the wake of the Capitol riot, some Christian leaders are calling on fellow American evangelicals to consider how their overwhelming support for President Trump may have helped fuel the insurrection. 

Ed Stetzer, head of the Billy Graham Center at Wheaton College in Illinois, told NPR's Rachel Martin that evangelicals "sold out their beliefs" and seem to have changed their moral stances to accommodate their support for Trump. 

"Part of this reckoning is: How did we get here? How were we so easily fooled by conspiracy theories?" Stetzer said. "We need to make clear who we are. And our allegiance is to King Jesus, not to what boasting political leader might come next." Evangelicals must ask themselves why they were drawn to a candidate whose life and practices are not aligned with Biblical beliefs, he said. 

According to research, respect for an authoritarian leader was the biggest indicator of support for Trump among voters. That resonates strongly with white evangelical Christians, many of whom view the world through an authoritarian religious lens. 

Many evangelicals acknowledge Trump has moral failings, but believe he was chosen to work God's will on Earth, by appointing conservative, anti-abortion judges, for example. "Images and references to being on the march for Jesus were common at the massive Jan. 6 rally — and later, riot — including among a segment of American Christianity that believes it has the power of prophecy," Michelle Boorstein reports for The Washington Post. "Some experts say charismatic, prophetic Christians who operate largely outside denominations make up U.S. religion’s fastest-growing subset. In recent decades, millions have been increasingly seeking out these prophets and apostles on YouTube channels, in books, group prayer calls, via regular group text chats and at conferences where breakout groups practice faith healing and raising people from the dead. And nothing has focused this disparate, independent group like Trump."

This brand of "neo-charismatic" Christianity is different from earlier ones because it's invested so heavily in Trump, said Peter Montgomery of the progressive advocacy group People for the American Way, who has studied right-wing religious movements for decades. "Many of these prophetic leaders in 2015-16 said Trump was anointed by God, divinely assigned to save America and protect religious freedom," Montgomery told Boorstein. "And now with them believing that Trump is standing in the way of Christianity being criminalized in the United States, this is an existential moment."

To these Christians, who seek divine intervention, Trump's struggles in office are no deterrent to support. "The high-octane, emotional fight for Trump makes sense for these believers, who take the stories of Christian scripture literally and see daily life as a visceral struggle between God and the devil," Boorstein reports. "Spiritual warfare is constant. Signs and wonders are everywhere. So as time passes and Trump’s options disappear, God’s move to keep him in power will be even more spectacular — evidence even more likely to spark a religious awakening or revival." In other words, the worse things look for Trump, the mightier God will look when He keeps Trump in office. 

Some evangelical leaders who continue to support Trump are getting blowback, though. "A group of Louisville clergymen on Wednesday condemned a sermon by the pastor of the Evangel World Prayer Center in which he falsely claimed the 2020 presidential election was 'stolen' and placed a curse on those allegedly involved," Ayana Archie reports for the Courier Journal.

The Rev. Bob Rodgers had said: "Father, those that have lied, those that have stolen this election, those that have cheated, I place the curse of God upon them. I curse you with weakness in your body. I curse you with poverty. I curse you with the worst year you've ever had in the name of the Lord."

The Rev. Tim Findley of the Kingdom Fellowship Christian Life Center called the sermon "irresponsible" and "dangerous" in light of the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Archie reports. Another Black evangelical pastor, the Rev. Mario Martin of Praise Nation Contemporary Church, said evangelical support of Trump advances "the spirit of white supremacy and white privilege through white prophecy," Archie reports. The Rev. Frank Smith Jr. of Christ's Church For Our Community said during the livestreamed presser: "I know there is much talk about the Christian right, but this is not Christian and this is not right."

UPDATE: David Brooks, a moderately conservative columnist for The New York Times, did some reporting and found a great divide about Trump "inside evangelical Christianity and within conservatism right now. As a conservative Christian friend of mine put it, there is strife within every family, within every congregation, and it may take generations to recover." Some excerpts: 

On the one hand, there are those who are doubling down on their Trump fanaticism and their delusion that a Biden presidency will destroy America.

“I rebuke the news in the name of Jesus. We ask that this false garbage come to an end,” the conservative pastor Tim Remington preached from the pulpit in Idaho on Sunday. “It’s the lies, communism, socialism.” . . . 

On the other hand, many Trump supporters have been shaken to the core by the sight of a sacrilegious mob blasting Christian pop music and chanting “Hang Mike Pence.” There have been defections and second thoughts. The Rev. Samuel Rodriguez, who delivered a prayer at the Trump inaugural, told his congregation Sunday, “We must all repent, even the church needs to repent.”

"This divide probably exists in most American communities. Rural journalists should report on it," said Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues, publisher of The Rural Blog.

Brooks concludes with some advice of his own, such as not tolerating "cyberterrorism within a community or congregation." He adds:

Others have to be reminded of the basic rules for perceiving reality. They have to be reminded that all truth is God’s truth; that inquiry strengthens faith, that it is narcissistic self-idolatry to think you can create your own truth based on what you “feel.” There will probably have to be pastors and local leaders who model and admire evidence-based reasoning, wrestling with ideas.

On the left, leaders and organizations have arisen to champion open inquiry, to stand up to the cancel mobs. They have begun to shift the norms.

The problem on the right is vastly worse. But we have seen that unreason is a voracious beast. If it is not confronted, it devours not only your party, but also your nation and your church.