U.S. beef herd hits a dramatic low as ranchers face repeated droughts and extreme weather

Graph by John McCracken, Investigate Midwest,
from USDA data

More prolonged periods of drought paired with extreme weather swings have reduced U.S. beef cattle herds to their lowest numbers since 1963. "Droughts starting in 2020 are a contributing factor in the nation's historically low beef inventory, according to Department of Agriculture research," reports John McCracken of Investigate Midwest. "Nebraska and Missouri — two of the top 10 beef-producing states — experienced the largest decline in the quality of June pastureland since 2020 compared to the other top states, according to an Investigate Midwest analysis of USDA data."

Since 1975, the decrease in U.S. beef herd numbers were attributed to "increased global beef production and cattle imports," McCracken explains. However, more recent shifts in livestock numbers have been partly caused by beef producers' response to a lack of water and grazable pasture. During droughts, livestock ranchers are more likely to wean calves off milk earlier than usual, "a common practice in dry years, but one that can also put young cattle at higher risk of dying." Ranchers also cull more cattle and spend more money on feed.

Higher costs to raise a beef herd end in fewer cattle on the market and higher beef prices. "Currently, cattle market experts report that the price paid by meatpackers to beef cattle ranchers is expected to be an all-time high," McCracken reports. "Food industry experts told various media outlets in late 2023 that this price increase would translate into sticker shock for consumers. . . . At the end of last year, the price of beef per pound peaked at $5.35, a 40-year high."

Midwestern agriculture depends on rain and groundwater. Dennis Todey, climatologist and director of the USDA's Midwest Climate Hub, noted how much "climate change has complicated the region's drought realities," McCracken reports. "Livestock producers now deal with weather whiplash — the result of climate change — of severely wet years, followed by intense, dry seasons." This past winter's snowfall across the Midwest is "expected to bring relief from the recent run of drought years," McCracken reports. "Despite forecasts of reduced drought levels for 2024, ranchers will continue to recover from previous drought years."

Grasslands fill up Conservation Reserve Program, which shows crop production and soil conservation can co-exist

Grassland in the program (Natural Resources and Conservation Service photo)

The largest federal program to preserve fragile land, the Conservation Reserve Program, has reached its enrollment limit for the first time in 10 years, reports Chuck Abbott of Successful Farming. "Thanks to surging interest in the Grassland CRP option . . . grasslands will become the largest element in the reserve, with more than 9 million acres enrolled." 

Farm policy expert Carl Zulauf of Ohio State told Abbott: "The new Farm Bill presents a generational opportunity to repurpose CRP." Abbott reports, "Grasslands will be the largest component of CRP, he said." Zach Ducheneaux, administrator of USDA's Farm Service Agency, added: "A carbon-capture CRP initially focused on grasslands may offer more potential to capture carbon than the much-debated, currently unproven carbon markets for the 318 million acres of principal crops in the United States. . . . Grassland CRP clearly demonstrates that conservation priorities and agricultural productivity not only have the capacity to coexist but also complement and enhance one another."

CRP pays landowners "an annual rent in exchange for taking fragile cropland out of production with  'the long-term goal to reestablish valuable land cover to help improve water quality, prevent soil erosion, and reduce loss of wildlife habitat through contracts that run for 10 to 15 years,' said a USDA summary," Abbott notes. It was re-established in 1985, as a successor to the Soil Bank program of the 1950s and '60s, which was phased out due to concerns that it hurt farm economies in some places. Now, it's the "largest federal land-retirement program. . . . It costs close to $2 billion a year. . . . There were 23 million acres in the reserve at the end of May. The program cap is 27 million acres."

CRP acreage dipped around 2007 "due to factors that included a reduction in rental rates and higher commodity prices that made crop production more attractive," Abbott explains. "[It] was reduced repeatedly over the years by Congress. The 2018 farm law reversed course, starting at 24 million acres in fiscal 2019 and rising to 27 million acres this year. . . Grassland CRP pays an annual rent while allowing producers to graze livestock and harvest hay from the land. Rental payments were set at a minimum of $15 an acre. The USDA says the program helps sequester carbon in vegetation and the soil and increases resilience to drought and wildfire."

"Of the land accepted for Grasslands CRP, 430,899 acres were in Colorado, followed by 417,865 acres in Nebraska and 325,443 acres in South Dakota," Abbott adds. "For the CRP overall, the leading states were Colorado, with 2.45 million acres; Texas, with 2.16 million acres; and South Dakota, with 2.1 million acres."

Bison benefit prairie more than cattle, help the ecosystem (plants, birds, etc.) and make it more resilient to drought

Three bison on the American Prairie reserve in Montana (Photo by Louise Johns, The New York Times)

Iconic horns, massive bodies, and shaggy fur: the American bison is a commanding presence that some think the West needs to regrow and protect its once magnificent ecosystem. "Since 2001, American Prairie — formerly known as American Prairie Reserve — has been working to create a fully functioning wild prairie, complete with herds of bison thundering across the landscape and playing their historical ecological role," reports Jim Robbins of The New York Times. "Experts originally thought it would take a decade or so to restore the bison-driven grassland ecosystem that would, in turn, replenish native species, including numerous grassland birds, river otters, prairie dogs, grizzly bears and wolves — all of which have been eliminated or diminished, largely by farming and livestock grazing." Robbins notes that experts have had to expand their timetable to decades.

The Great Plains was once home to "between 30 million and 60 million bison," Robbins writes. "They were a 'keystone' species in a complex ecological web, creating a cascade of environmental conditions that benefited countless other species. . . . A long-term comparative study of bison and cattle on tallgrass prairie in Kansas showed that over about 30 years on land grazed by bison, the richness of native plant species doubled compared with places where cattle grazed, and the presence of bison made the prairie ecosystem more resilient to drought."

Wes Olson, a bison expert who worked to return the animal to Grasslands National Park in Saskatchewan for Parks Canada, told Robbins, “In virtually every ecosystem currently grazed by bison, all of the grassland songbirds are lining their nest with bison hair. It insulates and increases chick survival and egg survival by up to 60 percent.”

Bison advocates have had to reset their completion schedule multiple time and "a full-blown prairie ecosystem is still decades away, and it won’t be cheap: Dr. Freese, who is writing a book about the return of wildlife to the plains, estimates it is likely to cost several hundred million dollars," Robbins reports. But the ultimate goal is attainable: "Someday, the bison on reservations, American Prairie and nearby wildlife refuges in the United States and Canada, may become one vast herd, roaming across about 3 million acres."

Manning-Stone OKd to lead Bureau of Land Management

Tracy Stone-Manning during Senate testimony
(Associated Press photo by Graeme Sloan)

"The Senate narrowly approved Tracy Stone-Manning on Thursday to lead the Bureau of Land Management, capping months of efforts by Republican lawmakers to block her confirmation because of her connection to a decades-old tree spiking incident," Lisa Friedman reports for The New York Times. "Stone-Manning steps into an agency that has been stretched thin ever since the Trump administration moved the BLM headquarters to Colorado last year, and will soon be faced with decisions over the future of oil and gas leases on federal land in Western states."

As part of its mission to protect natural resources, the Interior Department agency manages grazing, logging, drilling and mineral rights on public lands. "It is responsible for balancing oil, gas and coal extraction with recreation and the protection of natural resources," Friedman reports. "It also is key to President Biden’s goal of phasing out oil and gas drilling on federal lands. That plan has been in limbo since a federal judge ruled in June that the administration did not have the authority to suspend leases."

Quick hits: Firefly tourism; gray wolves; potty-trained cows; right-to-repair laws; are hospitals publishing their prices?

Fireflies at Grandfather Mountain in North Carolina. (Washington Post photo by Travis Dove)

Here's a roundup of stories with rural resonance; if you do or see similar work that should be shared on The Rural Blog, email heather.chapman@uky.edu.

Researchers released the first-ever comprehensive study of firefly tourism this year. They found that about 1 million tourists across the globe travel to witness firefly-related phenomena each year. That includes the famous synchronous fireflies in the Great Smoky Mountains; that's been getting increasingly popular for years, but the pandemic may have boosted its popularity even more this year as cooped-up tourists flocked to outdoor spots felt to be safer than indoors. Read more here.

The gorgeous but unwelcome spotted lanternfly
(Associated Press photo by Matt Rourke)

However, in news of less-desirable insects: A boy's bug collection at the Kansas State Fair last week
included a spotted lanternfly, which has triggered a federal investigation. The invasive species has been devastating trees and crops throughout the Mid-Atlantic states for years, but Kansas is more than 850 miles west from its nearest known location. Read more here.

Few hospitals in Maine, the most rural state by percentage of population, are complying with a federal rule requiring them to publish detailed prices of medical procedures for insured and uninsured patients. Are your local hospitals complying? Read more here.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service administration may restore federal protections for gray wolves in the western U.S. after laws in some states have made it much easier to kill the predators. USFW has begun a year-long biological review to determine if such a step is necessary. Read more here.

In its first meeting last week, the White House Competition Council discussed advancing right-to-repair laws that would bar companies such as John Deere from blocking customers or independent repair shops from fixing tractors and other machinery. President Biden called for the formation of the council in a July order aimed at increasing economic competition. Read more here.

The Agriculture Department "accepted offers for more than 2.5 million acres from agricultural producers and private landowners for enrollment through this year’s Grassland Conservation Reserve Program signup," Ximena Bustillo reports for Politico's Weekly Agriculture. "This is double last year’s enrollment and brings the total acres enrolled across all CRP sign ups in 2021 to more than 5.3 million acres, surpassing USDA’s 4-million-acre goal. Producers and landowners submitted offers for nearly 4 million acres in Grassland CRP, the highest in the signup’s history. The top submitters included Colorado, South Dakota, Nebraska, Montana, and New Mexico." Read more here.

Restaurants and businesses are asking Congress for more pandemic aid, but it could be a long shot since Congress is mostly occupied on hashing out the infrastructure package and a Democratic health-care, education and climate bill. Read more here.

As Republican lawmakers in Ohio work to limit drop boxes and early voting, rural voters in Ohio—and likely elsewhere—said in a poll that they want expanded voting options. Read more here.

Appalachian musicians are tackling the complicated topic of coal—and trying to inspire change—through song. Read more here.

Many rural regions that rely on tourism and drive-through visitors are finding it beneficial to install charging stations for electric vehicles. Read more here.

With 1.4 billion cows on earth, cow waste—from both ends—adds up to become a significant driver of climate change. But scientists in Germany and New Zealand have an innovative solution: potty-trained cows. A German herd has been successfully taught to relieve themselves only in a designated area nicknamed the "MooLoo." Read more here.

Bureau of Land Management releases plan to reduce Western sagebrush wildfires, protect sage grouse habitat

"Officials on Friday released an overarching plan for removing or changing vegetation over a huge swath of the U.S. West to stop devastating wildfires on land used for cattle ranching, recreation and habitat for imperiled sage grouse," reports Keith Ridler of The Associated Press. "The plan released by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management aims to limit wildfires in a 350,000-square-mile area of mainly sagebrush habitat that includes parts of Idaho, Oregon, Washington, California, Nevada and Utah."

The Obama administration came up with the program, which originally cost about $2 million, as a way of protecting sage grouse habitat without formally listing the birds as an endangered species. That could have hindered mining, ranching and recreation, Ridler reports. 

"Giant rangeland wildfires in recent decades have destroyed vast areas of sagebrush steppe ecosystems that support some 350 species of wildlife," Ridler reports. "Experts say the blazes have mainly been driven by cheatgrass, an invasive species that relies on fire to spread to new areas while killing native plants, including sagebrush on which sage grouse depend." Cheatgrass expansion is driven not only by wildfires but by unsustainable populations of wild horses and burros. 

"The plan released Friday does not authorize any specific projects. Instead, its analysis can be used to OK treatments for projects involving prescribed fires, fuel breaks and other measures to prevent or limit massive blazes that have worsened in recent decades," Ridler reports. "Specifically, the agency said the document can be used to help local land managers comply with an environmental law, the National Environmental Policy Act, when land managers seek approval for specific projects."

Erik Molvar, executive director of the Western Watersheds Project, an environmental watchdog group, worries the plan is essentially a BLM "blank check" that will help ranchers and harm wildlife without further input or detailed analysis. "This is an agency whose track record of vegetation manipulation has overwhelmingly resulted in habitat destruction," Molvar said in a press release.

Absentee landowners who know little about farming may stymie farmers from protecting water and soil

Absentee farmland owners may be preventing farmers from embracing conservation practices because they don't net as much profit, Dan Charles reports for NPR.

Midwestern farmers only own about half the land they use, on average, and rent the rest. Many landowners are retired farmers themselves, but many are urban investors who don't know much or anything about farming. "That means when it comes to managing that land . . . it often plays out like this: say that someone owns 160 acres, of which 30 acres are ill-suited for growing crops. The landlord still will rent out the whole parcel," Charles reports.

Steve Bruere, president of Peoples Company, an Iowa company that buys, sells, and manages farmland across the nation, told Charles that they create detailed maps of each farm to assess how much money farmers earn on every acre, using both publicly available data and proprietary data collected by farmers' GPS-equipped machinery.

Bruere said about 10 percent to 15% of all acres in Iowa aren't profitable because of various factors. "These can be hillsides with eroded soil, or parts of a field where water sits in a big puddle after every rain. That's where Bruere's company advises farmers to cut their losses and maybe bring back some prairie instead," Charles reports.

So-called "prairie strips" are unprofitable chunks of land within soybean or corn fields where farmers plant tall-stemmed grasses and wildflowers. The strips allow native wildlife to maintain a toehold and help protect the farmland from water and wind erosion. But urban landowners pressure farmers to till all available land to make more money, even if it's lousy land, Charles reports.

The practice of renting farmland can discourage farmers from planting cover crops in the off-season, according to environmental advocate Sarah Carlson with Practical Farmers of Iowa. Cover crops can protect and enrich the soil, and is good for the environment, she told Charles, but it costs money up front. "Farmers who rent land, and who may not have access to that land in the long run, are reluctant to spend that money," Charles reports.

Wild horses and burros in West outrun the federal program that is trying, and failing, to reduce their numbers

Mustangs rounded up in the fall of 2019 near Challis, Idaho. The mares were treated with fertility control drugs and released. (New York Times photo by Hilary Swift)

The Bureau of Land Management has been trying to reduce the number of wild horses and burros on public lands in the West by rounding them up, but there are two problems with that approach: "It hasn’t been able to round up nearly enough horses to limit the wild population. And it doesn’t know what to do with the ones it has managed to capture," Dave Philipps reports for The New York Times.

Once the government captures the horses, it has to feed and care for them. "The costs and frictions of having so many animals on the government’s hands — 49,000 at last count — have pushed the whole wild horse program toward collapse," Philipps reports. "The rented pastures and feed lots where they are kept now devour more than two-thirds of the program’s budget, leaving little money for anything else, including looking for ways to get the bureau out of its current fix."

The bureau has reduced roundups in recent years because of the cost, but that gave the horses and burros more room to expand. Though 7,300 horses were captured in 1029, an estimated 17,000 foals were born. "There are now about 100,000 wild horses and burros on public lands — more than at any time since the days of the Old West. The government reckons the land can sustain only about 27,000," Philipps reports. "Bureau officials warn that the mustang herds are a looming catastrophe for the land, and there is no cheap or obvious solution. Capturing all the excess horses and caring for them in storage for the rest of their lives could cost up to $3 billion. Doing nothing may prove costly, too."

However, wild-horse welfare groups say there is no overpopulation, and that the government is lowballing its estimate of how many horses the land can support because it's serving the interests of cattle ranchers, Philipps reports.

In the 1980s, the BLM said it addressed the problem by rounding up horses and finding them adoptive homes, but news media discovered that most of the adopted horses were actually being slaughtered at a profit for BLM employees. Modern-day legislative support for slaughtering horses has been "widely unpopular," Philipps reports. Many have suggested that the agency would be more successful by focusing more on administering birth control drugs instead of doing the roundups.

The BLM says it can create a sustainable program if Congress gives it more money. Congress has approved such funding three times in the past 30 years, but ballooning costs and animal-welfare lawsuits have made such approval complicated. "The bureau is in talks to open two huge feedlots to hold thousands of horses. But it is unclear if Congress is willing to spend billions to store unwanted horses, especially if an economic downturn drains public funds," Philipps reports.

Grasslands conservation program applications open; farmers and ranchers get paid for protecting grazing lands

The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Conservation Reserve Program opened applications for its Grasslands initiative this week. Through CRP Grasslands, farmers and ranchers will receive an annual rental payment and up to 50 percent cost-share for establishing approved conservation practices on their grasslands, rangelands and pastures, while still using the land for agricultural purposes, according to a USDA press release.

Participants still retain the right to conduct common grazing practices like haying, mowing or harvesting seed, though the timing some activities may be restricted by things like the primary nesting season of birds. CRP contracts are for either 10 or 15 years.

The USDA's Farm Service Agency will administer the program, one of the largest conservation programs at USDA. This year marks its 35th anniversary, with more than 22 million acres currently enrolled. The 2018 Farm Bill authorized 2 million new acres for the program. Applications are due by May 15. Contact your local Farm Service Agency to apply for the program or for more information.