Opinion: On the West Texas High Plains, a farm recession from closing cotton gins eats away at rural economies

Part of a ginning business stands out on High Plains
of West Texas. (Floydada Co-op Gin photo)

A farm recession doesn't look like a Wall Street crash. It's quieter, deeper and far more difficult for an agriculturally-based community to recover from, writes Tony St. James in his opinion for RED TV. When a region's farms go under, their disappearance is followed by the loss of "the businesses that once processed, serviced, and supported the crop."

West Texas cotton gins that once flourished and pumped millions of dollars into the state's economy are struggling to survive drought and market volatility. "In 2022, extreme drought forced producers to abandon nearly 74% of planted acres, driving production to the lowest levels seen in decades," St. James explains. While production rebounded in 2023, the farm losses of 2022 were nearly impossible to balance.

After 2022, some farmers had to sell or close their gins. Their consolidation into another gin or complete closings cascaded down to all the equipment dealers, irrigation companies and trucking firms that depended on that gin for work and profits.

Location of Parmer County, Texas,
population 9,870 (Wikipedia map)

"In Parmer County, one cooperative gin has sold, another is unlikely to reopen, and only one large facility remains," St. James writes. "The cotton did not disappear. The infrastructure did. . . . This is what a farm recession looks like on Main Street."

From a state or national perspective, the loss and absorption of gins may not signal any crisis, but for towns centered on cotton, the loss of one or two gins can kill their rural economy.

"Cotton remains central to the Texas economy. . . . But rural infrastructure tends to thin faster than it rebuilds," St. James adds. To survive, some West Texas counties are faced with "rebuilding the backbone of the local economy."

Is the U.S. inching toward recession? Ag economists weigh in on warning signs

Graphic by Lindsey Pound, Farm Journal

Over the past two years, many economists and business leaders have warned that an economic downturn is on the horizon. "While ag economists continue to be at odds when it comes to the likelihood of a recession in the United States, there are also concerns about economic woes around the globe," reports Tyne Morgan of Farm Journal. "Some economists doubt the United States' biggest importers will be able to avoid a recession over the next 18 months."

Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor has kept tabs on U.S. trade partners' ongoing efforts to prevent  a recession. "A survey of nearly 60 ag economists from across the country were asked if the United States' major importers will avoid a recession over the next 18 months," Morgan writes. "Of those who answered the question, nine said 'yes,' but eight responded 'no.' Four remained unsure. . . .when asked to explain their reasoning, the answers revealed a host of concerns, including labor shortages, risks in China and Europe, and the strength of the U.S. dollar."

The U.S. economy has proved robust, but many economists "point to red flags that continue to flash caution signs moving forward," Morgan explains. "One is the fact credit card debt is climbing at a time when inflation continues to eat away at consumers' spending power." 

September's Monitor conducted an anonymous survey asking economists to name the top three indicators they use when considering possible recession. Their replies included:

"I follow Fed monetary actions, interest rates and unemployment levels."

"I follow unemployment rate, hourly wage rate and consumer prices."

"I don't think the Fed can get inflation down to the 2% mandate without a recession if it holds to that mandate."

"Employment growth remains fairly strong, and the U.S. unemployment rate remains historically low. As long as there is not a sizable decline in demand for labor (which is what I believe), the U.S. should, at worst, have a shallow and relatively short recession."

"Ag economists' view on the overall ag economy is also starting to erode," Morgan reports. "The September Monitor shows lower commodity prices, concerns about demand, and a negative outlook for China's economy, all contributing to the changing views, even as the cattle herd and U.S. corn and soybean crops continue to shrink." 

Are we in a recession? PolitiFact has primer with rural angle

The turbulent economy has spawned a great deal of debate about whether the U.S. is in a recession, but it turns out it's not so easy to define. Here's what to know, from Louis Jacobson  at PolitiFact.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted recently on NBC's "Meet the Press" that a common definition is two consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product. On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter of 2022, marking the second consecutive quarter of falling GDP. Yellen said, "What a recession really means is a broad-based contraction in the economy. And even if that number is negative, we are not in a recession now."

Jacobson writes, "Yellen is correct that the official definition economists use is significantly broader than the two-consecutive-quarters shorthand. At the same time, arguing over the technical definition of whether the U.S. is in a recession is a distraction, economists say. In today’s economy, so many indicators are off-kilter because of the pandemic that old rules like the two-quarters rule may no longer apply. Still, there are plenty of reasons to be concerned about the economy even without calling it a recession right now."

The two-quarter rule is widely known because it's simple and easy for the public to understand, according to Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the Rural Mainstreet Index. "But officially, the only recession arbiter is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee. The committee has been marking the start and end points of recessions since the late 1970s," Jacobson reports. "The committee deliberates privately, but it is open about what factors it uses to determine the start of a recession, namely 'a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.' Every recession requires 'depth, diffusion, and duration" of economic hurt.'"

On its website, the committee notes that it has sometimes called a recession even without the two-quarters rule. That includes the 2020 pandemic recession, which lasted only two months. "The committee says it weighs a variety of factors, including inflation-adjusted personal income, nonfarm payrolls, household employment data, inflation-adjusted personal expenditures, inflation-adjusted manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production," Jacobson reports. "The biggest shortcoming of NBER’s system is that it isn’t done in real time. The fastest determinations have occurred about four months after a recession’s start; the slowest have come 21 months later."

Most of the two dozen economists PolitiFact contacted for the story warned against relying too heavily on the two-quarter rule. The data is only preliminary and gets revised later as more data comes in, they noted, which can change economic figures dramatically. That may be what's happened with the most recent GDP figures, they said. Though the GDP fell by 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022, economists said the numbers may be off-base because of issues with inventories and trade data, Jacobson reports.

Considering GDP alone overlooks other important economic data points. The unemployment rate remains historically low at 3.6%, nonfarm payroll employment continues to rise robustly, and most of the recent payroll growth has been in full-time as opposed to part-time jobs, said Brookings Institution economist Gary Burtless," Jacobson reports. "Consumer spending also continues to chug along, despite high inflation."

Cropland values hit record highs, but skyrocketing prices for equipment and other inflation boost production costs

Agriculture Department chart; click to enlarge it

The Farm Belt is in a revival, with cropland values hitting record highs this year, but farmers worry about inflation and supply-chain disruptions, Jesse Newman and Bob Tita report for The Wall Street Journal.

"A months-long rally in prices for major agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans is pushing up incomes for U.S. farmers and unleashing spending and investment that had been subdued for years, according to agricultural economists and executives," the Journal reports. The run-up in land and equipment prices that has followed could leave farmers exposed if big harvests send crop prices lower again, some economists said. Until recently, U.S. farmers were in the grips of an agricultural recession brought on by a world-wide crop glut. Starting last year, however, strong demand from China and poor weather in key growing regions fueled a sharp rise in prices for crops like corn and soybeans, which touched their highest levels in eight years during the spring. U.S. agricultural exports are expected to hit records in fiscal 2021 and 2022, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture forecasts."

The department's most recent Farm Income Forecast projected that net farm income would increase 20% this year to its highest level since 2013. But "inflation is also hitting the Farm Belt, boosting almost all farmers’ production expenses this year, including fertilizer and fuel," Newman and Tita report. "The USDA expects production expenses to rise by more than 7% in 2021, the agency said. Farmers’ bills for supplies such as seed and fertilizer bought for next year will be the highest ever," an agricultural economist at major farm lender Wells Fargo said.

USDA nutrition spending hit all-time high in fiscal 2020; hunger at pandemic low; webinar on food insecurity Sept. 8

Here's the latest on hunger and nutrition assistance programs:

The Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture will host a one-hour webinar at 1 p.m. ET Sept. 8 to discuss USDA's annual report on food insecurity in the U.S., which will come out that day. The report covers changes in food insecurity from previous years, the prevalence of food insecurity by household demographics, and food insecurity among children. ERS social-science analyst Alisha Coleman-Jensen will host. Click here for more information or to register.

"After cresting at 13.7 percent at the end of 2020, the U.S. hunger rate is now the lowest, 7.8 percent, since the pandemic began in early 2020. Analysts say the expanded child tax credit, coronavirus relief programs and rebound from recession all helped," Chuck Abbott reports for The Food & Environment Reporting Network. That's according to a data analysis of the Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

Spending on USDA's domestic food and nutrition assistance programs in the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2020, reached an all-time high of $122.1 billion, 32 percent higher than FY 2019. The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which rural residents use disproportionately, accounted for 65% of the spending. About 40 million Americans participated in SNAP each month, up 12%. Read more here.

Farming gets an influx of millennials, with fresh perspective

Zain Shauk, 36, is the CEO of Houston-area hydroponics operation Dream Harvest Farming Co.
(Wall Street Journal photo by Michael Starghill Jr.)

The average American farmer is 57.5 years old, a number that has been steadily rising for decades, but an influx of millennials, many from non-farming backgrounds, have been taking up agriculture and bringing with them enthusiasm, off-beat ideas and high-tech fluency that are changing what it means to farm, Krithika Varagur reports for The Wall Street Journal.

Only 8 percent of U.S. farmers are under 35, according to the Agriculture Department's 2017 Census of Agriculture, the most recent. But their numbers have been growing: "From 2012 to 2017, the number of producers under age 35 grew 11% to about 285,000, while producers age 35-64 had shrunk by 2%," Varagur reports.

The lingering effects of the Great Recession may have been responsible for the numbers in 2017, since economic crises often create more interest in small-scale farming, said Severine von Tscharner Fleming, founder of Greenhorns, a nonprofit for young farmers. She's seen the same thing happening during the pandemic; in both cases, she told Varagur, widespread unemployment created a larger pool of workers who wanted to give farming a try.

As with their urban peers, many young farmers have side gigs. In 2017, "some 58% of U.S. producers overall, including 65% of those under 35, had a primary occupation other than farming," Varagur reports. Still, farming remains a dicey financial proposition: nearly one-third of small farmers were expected to face bankruptcy by the end of the year, according to a May 2020 survey. That's why some millennials pivot from farming into a related field such as agricultural equipment sales.

Sometimes it does work out, though. Former reporter Zain Shauk, now 36, dreamed up a hydroponic lettuce business with a friend on a trip to Las Vegas in 2014. Today, their Houston-area business, Dream Harvest Farming Co., profitably employs 32 people and operates 7,500 square feet of warehouse space, Varagur reports.

For other millennials considering a farming career, Hauk recommends thinking about your own life experiences for guidance. "I decided to start farming greens after having one too many experiences buying lettuce that went bad before I even got home," Hauk told Varagur. "I would encourage others to think that way, too. If you’re frustrated by the meat, types of fish, fruits, or whatever else you buy week after week, you actually have the option to change that, which is so cool."

Surveyed rural bankers still optimistic about economy but worry about drought, inflation and federal bank regulations

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download it and chart below.

A June survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwest states that rely on agriculture and energy found they still have strong expectations for the economy, but are concerned about cybersecurity, inflation, drought, and more. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

The overall index remained above growth-neutral for the seventh straight month, falling to 70 on a scale of 100 from last month's record 78.8. For the first time since it began in 2013, the index recorded nine straight months of farmland prices above growth-neutral. Almost half the bankers reported that their local economy expanded from May to June. Federal stimulus/relief funds, strong grain prices and expanding exports played a big role, writes Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the index. 

Despite recent job gains, overall non-farm employment in the surveyed states is 2% lower than pre-pandemic levels. Employment in Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska exceeds pre-pandemic levels.

Bankers raised other concerns about the future (see chart below). The largest share, about one-fourth, predicted rising government regulations as the greatest threat to bank operations in 2021-22. A downturn in farm income was a close second, followed by cyberthreats.

In Nomadland, about a homeless rural migrant worker, 'a ghost of a Western' and maybe 'The Grapes of Wrath'

Frances McDormand in Nomadland

Nomadland, which won big at the Academy Awards last night—Best Picture, Best Lead Actress (Frances McDormand), and Best Director (Chloé Zhao) — presents a complicated portrait of the rural West and the gig economy.

The film follows Fern, a widowed former teacher in her 60s, who becomes a van-dwelling migrant gig worker after the factory shutters in her rural Nevada town. It's based on the 2018 nonfiction book of the same name by journalist Jessica Bruder, who lived in a van for three years and followed itinerant gig workers to research it.

Critics and Nevadans have praised the film for its authenticity, saying it faithfully depicts rural Nevada. And if the characters are realistic, it's because many are actual migrant gig-workers, not actors. Nomadland also manages to avoid common Hollywood tropes that show rural areas as full of simple bigots, dangerous freaks, or salt-of-the-earth down-home folks; a feat Oscar contender Hillbilly Elegy could not duplicate, Stephen Humphries writes for The Christian Science Monitor.

But the film pulls its punches in showing how dangerous menial gigs can be, especially for seniors, and ignores Bruder's pointed economic critiques. In the book, she describes the nomads as "plug-and-play labor, the epitome of convenience for employers in search of seasonal staffing. They appear where and when they are needed. They bring their own homes … They aren’t around long enough to unionize. On jobs that are physically difficult, many are too tired even to socialize after their shifts." One 77-year-old worker told Bruder that "They love retirees because we’re dependable. We’ll show up, work hard, and are basically slave labor."

"Because the film is primarily a character study of [Fern], it exchanges Bruder’s sharp indignation over capitalist exploitation for a muddled message about individual freedom that downplays the real stakes of gig labor," Wilfred Chan writes for Vulture.

Anthony Lane wrote in The New Yorker in November, "Somewhere, inside this lovely and desperate movie, there’s the ghost of a Western. Though people still gather around a campfire, their talk is of cancer and P.T.S.D.  Instead of cowboys driving cattle to high pastures, Fern and her kindred spirits converge, in certain months, on an Amazon warehouse—still obeying the rhythm of the seasons, I guess, as they bubble-wrap junk and box it in time for Christmas. . . . It maintains a fierce sadness, like the look in its heroine’s eyes, alive to all that’s dying in the West. That is why Zhao so often films at daylight’s decease, catching enormous skies of violet and rose, and why her fable speaks to us, in 2020, as John Ford’s “The Grapes of Wrath” did to audiences eighty years ago. Fern’s needs and rights are as basic as those of the Joad family, yet there was a breadth and an uplift to their yearning that has since dwindled to a speck. “Fellow ain’t got a soul of his own, just a little piece of a big soul,” Tom Joad said. “The one big soul that belongs to everybody.” Some hope. Fern has her own soul, and it’s hers alone, packed away tight in the van, together with her toothbrush and her chicken-noodle soup. On she goes."

Rising grain prices usher in surprising farm recovery, but could lead to higher prices in the grocery store

"A crop glut that battered American farmers is subsiding, fueling an unexpected recovery in the U.S. Farm Belt following a yearslong agricultural recession. Prices for corn, soybeans and wheat have soared to their highest levels in more than six years as dry weather and strong export demand from China drain U.S. stockpiles," Jesse Newman reports for The Wall Street Journal. "The rising commodity prices are rippling through the food chain, helping drive a sharp increase in U.S. farm income and lifting the prospects for a swath of rural businesses, from grain traders to equipment manufacturers and fertilizer suppliers."

The surge will probably increase food prices for consumers, as well as increasing costs and squeezing profit margins for the food and fuel producers that rely on corn and soybean purchases. 

The booming commodity prices are "a dramatic reversal from recent years in which bumper harvests swelled U.S. grain supplies, pushing prices lower and slashing farmers’ incomes. A wave of bankruptcies swept Midwestern farms, followed by trade disputes and the coronavirus pandemic, which deepened farmers’ struggles," Newman reports. "Now, China’s push to increase pork production and fulfill recent trade commitments are propelling huge volumes of U.S. crops overseas. American food processors and manufacturers also are racing to ensure they have adequate grain and oilseed supplies to meet burgeoning consumer demand. Inventories of corn, soybeans and wheat are on track this season to hit their lowest in at least six years, according to U.S. Agriculture Department forecasts."

Rural Midwest banker survey sees rising economic confidence amid concerns about inflation and interest rates

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download the full report.

A January Creighton University survey of rural bankers in 10 Midwest states that rely on farming and energy showed overall increasing confidence in the economy amid concerns about excessive inflation, low loan demand and higher long-term interest rates. The index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

"Recent sharp improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm support payments, and Federal Reserve’s record-low short-term interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy in a solid and positive growth range. However, the rural economy remains well below pre-pandemic levels," writes Creighton economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the index.

The overall Rural Mainstreet Index climbed above growth neutral for the third time in the past four months, and the farm equipment sales index rose to its highest reading since April 2013. Moreover, for the first time since 2013, Creighton recorded four straight months of above growth-neutral farmland prices. 

However, bankers reported "anemic" loan volumes, and a plurality, 44 percent, said they expected low loan demand to be the biggest issue their banks will face in 2021. Only 4% said rising loan defaults and bankruptcies was the biggest issue. That's a near flip-flop from last January, when only 7% said low loan demand was their greatest concern, and 32% said rising loan defaults and bankruptcies were their biggest worry.

The new hiring index fell below growth neutral, and data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics says non-farm employment levels in the Rural Mainstreet economy are down by 3.3%, or 145,000 from pre-pandemic levels, and down by 5.6%, or 251,000, from last January.

Poverty grows despite stimulus package; many fall through the cracks and are ineligible for such aid

"Even as average personal incomes rose during the pandemic largely because of government aid, millions of people who didn’t receive such help have fallen into poverty, struggling to pay for food and other basic expenses," Tim Henderson reports for Stateline. "That group, trying to get by with the help of local charities, may have been excluded from the federal payments because of immigration status, lack of time in the labor force needed to claim unemployment benefits, or just red tape in states that have been slow to pay jobless claims." 

The economic stimulus package Congress passed in December has more help for families with mixed immigration status, since those families were excluded from previous stimulus payments. "Immigrants are a large share of the people not receiving aid. Others include people with criminal convictions, new graduates without a work history, and people who have experienced gaps in employment," Henderson reports.

Unemployment payments helped bolster average personal income, a figure that was higher in almost all states in the third quarter of 2020 compared to the year before. "But at the same time, poverty rose more than 2 points nationwide between June and November to 11.7 percent, the fastest jump in history, according to a study by the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame. The largest increase previously recorded was 1.3 points between 1979 and 1980, during a deep recession caused by a spike in oil prices," Henderson reports. "The recent increase of 7.8 million more people in poverty hit minorities and those without a college education the hardest, along with residents of states with less effective unemployment systems, said Bruce Meyer, a co-author of the study and University of Chicago professor of public policy."

The unemployment rate declined from 14.7% in April to 6.7% in November, but low-wage restaurant and hospitality jobs have been particularly hard-hit and are still struggling. Several groups are calling for more help for workers who are excluded from typical unemployment benefits, including immigrants or recent graduates "who haven’t built up enough time in the labor force to qualify, and therefore the supplemental payments," Henderson reports. But state revenues have declined during the pandemic, so it may be difficult to pay for such unemployment benefits, which are financed by fees on employers.

Friday webinar to discuss USDA's Rural America at a Glance report, which will be released Thursday

The Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service will release the 2020 edition of its Rural America at a Glance report Thursday, Dec. 17. The report summarizes rural trends in population, employment, poverty and income. This year's edition will focus on recent economic and demographic conditions in rural areas resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing recession.

On Friday, Dec. 18, ERS economist Elizabeth Dobis will host a free webinar to discuss the report's findings. The webinar will begin at 1 p.m. ET and will last about an hour. For more information about the webinar or to register, click here.

Policy paper shows how local strategies are helping revitalize three small cities: Wheeling, Emporia and Laramie

Part of the historic district of Laramie, Wyoming (Photo via Wikimedia Commons)

A five-part policy paper aims to cut through stereotypes to show small-town America as it really is and discuss examples of local strategies for sustainable growth in three small cities (Wheeling, West Virginia; Laramie, Wyoming; and Emporia, Kansas) and surrounding rural areas. Its authors argue that this is more important than ever as such places struggle economically during the pandemic.

Pundits and policymakers (not to mention the general public) often paint rural and small-town America as a monolith of white people who depend on traditional industries and struggle with stagnation, decline and despair. "These characterizations are not just inaccurate; they actively obscure effective solutions for rural economic and community development and the local efforts underway to implement them," Hanna Love and Mike Powe write for the Brookings Institution.

Love is a senior research analyst for Brookings' Metropolitan Policy Program. Powe is the director of research at Main Street America, a nonprofit focused on revitalizing older and historic commercial districts. They write, "For decades, local leaders have been implementing locally tailored economic development strategies that value and build upon place-based assets, and have garnered real successes in fostering recreation, amenity-based, and service economies that support rural places of opportunity." Here's a brief summary of each part:

Main Streets are a key driver of equitable economic recovery: Downtown revitalization of commercial corridors outside metropolitan areas can foster economic revival for small businesses and make small cities more equitable, dynamic and resilient. Love and Powe provide a framework for evaluating revitalization efforts and applying elsewhere the lessons learned in Wheeling, Laramie, and Emporia.

Non-metro small businesses need local solutions to survive: The pandemic disproportionately hurts small businesses, especially outside metro areas, places that were still rebounding from the Great Recession. They often had less access to capital, poor broadband connectivity, and were more likely to be the most immediately vulnerable industries than their urban counterparts, Love and Powe write. This section discusses the role downtown revitalization and government support can play in helping underserved rural small businesses develop, survive and grow.

A flexible, accessible and healthy built environment; Non-metro residents face persistent barriers, such as lack of access to health care, broadband, and fresh food, and they're disproportionately likely to be struggling with poverty, debt, and isolation. "Rural small businesses face similar challenges in connectivity and capital access, and are suffering further due to their concentration in the most immediately vulnerable industries," Love and Powe write. This section explores whether downtown revitalization can promote the improvements needed for the health and resilience of a broader swath of rural residents and small businesses.

Main Streets can't achieve true economic revival without bridging social divides: Non-metro revitalization and growth increasingly rely on immigrants, but many places struggle with racism or elitism that makes them feel unwelcome. "This brief examines whether downtown revitalization can help foster cohesive social environments that nurture racial and economic inclusion, reflect community identity, and enhance residents’ attachments to place," Love and Powe write.

Creating a shared vision of rural resilience through community-led civic structures: "As governmental responses to the covid-19 pandemic remain inconsistent and marked by disparate outcomes by race and place, people and small businesses are turning to local organizations for relief—seeking support from the community and civic structures they know and trust. While much attention has been paid to community-based actors in cities, less is known about how community organizations and coalitions are stepping up in rural areas, where residents and small businesses face similar barriers in accessing relief," Love and Rowe write. "This brief examines how the place-based entities behind downtown revitalization can not only provide relief to residents and small businesses, but also how they can support the development and capacity of other community organizations, coalitions, and networks to build resilience in the years to come."

Quick hits: New books explore Dolly Parton's music; new podcast series examines the 1980s farm crisis

Here's a roundup of stories with rural resonance; if you do or see similar work that should be shared on The Rural Blog, email us at heather.chapman@uky.edu.

Decades of corporate-friendly farm policies wrecked rural America, writes a retired Wisconsin dairy farmer. Read more here.

Prisons and jails continue to be a major vector for coronavirus transmission. Read more here.

Two new books explore Dolly Parton's music. Read more here.

The agricultural downturn in recent years was seen as the most challenging stretch for the farm economy in decades. Agricultural Economic Insights has launched a new podcast series, "Escaping 1980," that examines the 1980s farm crisis that brought a wave of bankruptcies and reshaped the industry. Listen to the first episodes here.

Though rural areas disproportionately voted for President Trump, most of his voters came from cities and suburbs; rural areas only have about 20% of the nation's population). Read more here.

A new book chronicles a rural Alabama woman's battle to access basic sanitation services, revealing the scope of the problem for many rural residents and the factors that feed the crisis. Read more here.

Most rural counties lost jobs from Sept. 2019 to Sept. 2020, but metro counties did worse; see county-level data

Map shows percentage change of employment rate from September 2019 to September 2020, compared to the national average of 6.47% loss during the 12-month period. Daily Yonder map; click here for the interactive version.

Most U.S. counties had fewer people working in September 2020 than in September 2019, but rural counties lost a smaller percentage of jobs than the largest metropolitan counties, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figures. That's likely because jobs in many rural areas, especially those that rely on agriculture instead of tourism, are somewhat insulated from nationwide employment trends. 

"In fact, rural counties are slowly adding jobs as the country’s major metro areas continue to struggle," Bill Bishop reports for The Daily Yonder. "Rural counties lost a little over 4% of the jobs they had in September 2019. In contrast, the metropolitan counties that contain the urban centers of cities of a million or more people have lost nearly 8% of the jobs they had a year ago. The nation as a whole lost 6.5% jobs over these 12 months."

In September 2019, the average unemployment rate in major metropolitan areas was at or below 3.5%, slightly lower than in rural counties. But in September 2020, the unemployment rate in rural counties was 6%, compared to 9.7% in the central counties of the largest cities, Bishop reports. Click here for more analysis, including an interactive map with the latest county-level data.

Over 1/3 of rural bankers in 10 mid-America states report recession conditions, but overall economic confidence rising

Creighton University chart compares current month to month and year ago; click here to download it and chart below.

A Creighton University survey of rural Midwestern bankers in October found a cautiously optimistic outlook, with the overall Rural Mainstreet Index climbing slightly above growth-neutral, its highest reading since January. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50 representing growth-neutral. In September the overall index was 46.9, but this month's was 53.2.

The index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in 10 states where agriculture and energy are critical to the economy: Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

"Recent improvements in agriculture commodity prices, federal farm support, and the Federal Reserve’s record low interest rates have underpinned the Rural Mainstreet Economy. Still, more than one-third, or 35.5%, of bank CEOs reported their local economies were experiencing recessionary economic conditions," reports Creighton economist Ernie Goss, who does the survey.

One banker said that politicized misinformation about a coronavirus vaccine has led many locals to say they won't get the vaccine when it becomes available. Failure to achieve a high vaccine rate, and therefore control the spread of the coronavirus, will hurt economic recovery, the banker told Goss.

Other findings of interest in this month's survey:

• Overall index advanced for a sixth straight month to its highest level since January of this year.
• More than eight of 10 bank CEOs identified restaurants/bars as experiencing the greatest negative impact from covid-19.
• Only 3% of bankers named farmers as experiencing the greatest negative covid-19 impacts.
• For only the third time in the past 82 months, the farmland price index advanced above growth neutral.
• Bank CEOs estimated that farm equipment sales will fall by an additional 3.1% over the next 12 months.
• More than one-third, or 35.5%, of bank CEOs reported that their local economies were experiencing recessionary economic conditions.

Farm Aid to host 35th anniversary virtual festival on Sept. 26

Farm Aid announced recently that the organization will mark its 35th anniversary with a virtual festival. Farm Aid 2020 On the Road will air on Saturday, Sept. 26, from 8-11 p.m. ET on Farm Aid's YouTube channel, AXS TV, and Fans.com, according to the Farm Aid website.

"The goal of the virtual festival is to raise critical funds for and awareness of the organization and its mission, which it typically does through ticket sales to the annual in-person music and food festival. Farm Aid accepts donations year-round at www.farmaid.org/donate," according to a press release.
The festival will include performances from more than 20 artists, including Willie Nelson, John Mellencamp, Neil Young, Dave Matthews, Brandi Carlile, Chris Stapleton, and more. Farmers from across the country will also share their stories about why they farm, how they stay resilient, and what they believe is the future of agriculture.

"This pandemic and so many other challenges have revealed how essential family farmers and ranchers are to the future of our planet,"  said Farm Aid President and founder Willie Nelson in a statement. "Farm Aid 2020 is going to give the whole country a chance to learn about the important work of farmers and how they’re contributing to our well-being, beyond bringing us good food."

Aug. survey of rural bankers shows slight improvements, but sixth straight month of recession-level readings

Creighton University chart compares current month to month and year ago; click here to download it and chart below.

The rural Midwestern economy improved slightly over the past month, but is still below pre-pandemic levels, according to the August edition of Creighton University's Rural Mainstreet Index. The index is a survey of bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in 10 states where agriculture and energy are critical to the economy: Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

"The overall index for August increased slightly to 44.7 from July’s 44.1, but still well below growth neutral, though it was up from July’s 44.1 and April’s record low 12.1. The index ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral," Creighton economist Ernie Goss reports. "Farm commodity prices are down by 10.4 percent over the last 12 months. As a result, and despite the initiation of $32 billion in USDA farm support payments in 2020, only 8% of bankers reported their area economy had improved compared to July, while 18.4% said economic conditions had worsened."

Other things of note from the report:

• August's index marks the sixth straight month with a reading indicating a recession.
• The farmland price index inched above growth-neutral for only the second time in the last 81 months.
• Some areas, such as western South Dakota, saw an economic boost from tourism and recreation because they didn't shut down businesses during the pandemic.
• Nearly 46% of bankers surveyed who have ethanol plants nearby reported temporary shutdowns. The other 54% reported slow expansion of ethanol production.

Los Alamos to lose local newspaper and radio station Sun.

Los Alamos, N.M. (Wikipedia map)

Los Alamos, a historic community of 12,000 in New Mexico, will lose its only paid print newspaper and its major community radio station on Sunday. The coincidental announcements draw attention to not only the economic pain the pandemic has caused local businesses, but the increasing importance of public-notice ads to newspapers.

After nearly 60 years in print, the Los Alamos Monitor announced Monday that it will close at the end of the week. Landmark Community Newspapers, which has owned the now twice-weekly paper since 1979, told the staff Friday, The Associated Press reports.

"Landmark President Mike Abernathy said the staff has worked hard to produce a quality newspaper but that their efforts weren’t enough to overcome economic challenges that have worsened in the face of the coronavirus pandemic," AP reports. "Officials also pointed to diminishing community support for the newspaper, noting a decision by local government officials to send their legal advertising to a free-newspaper competitor."

That points up the recently increased importance of public-notice ads to newspapers, especially during the pandemic, which has reduced commercial advertising, said Al Cross, director of the Institute for Rural Journalism and Community Issues, publisher of The Rural Blog.

The Monitor's shuttering adds to the more than 50 small newsrooms in the U.S. that have closed or merged in 2020, mostly rural weeklies, Kristen Hare reports for Poynter, drawing on research by the University of North Carolina's Penny Abernathy.

Meanwhile, Los Alamos AM/FM station KRSN announced Aug. 11 that it also will close Aug. 30.

KRSN started in 1945 as part of the Manhattan Project to build the atomic bomb, which was accomplished at Los Alamos. It has become a community staple over the past 70 years, announcing local news, weather, sports and other programming, the online Los Alamos Reporter reports. David and Gillian Sutton, who have owned and operated it for the past 15 years, said the pandemic is to blame: "With the cancellation of high-school sports, events, the closure of small businesses and the struggles of those remaining, KRSN can no longer raise the advertising revenues it takes to run your free to you community radio station."

Both the Monitor and KRSN are for sale, so it's possible that buyers may resurrect them. In the meantime, the community's main source of local news will come from two free online-only publications, the Reporter and the Los Alamos Daily Post.

In second day of RNC, Trump tries to strengthen rural ties; religion writer sees a blend of economic, religious themes

On Tuesday, the second day of the Republican National Convention, President Trump's campaign made concerted efforts to appeal to strengthen ties with rural voters.

"On a night touting Trump's efforts to boost the economy, Jason Joyce, an eighth-generation lobster fisherman, praised the president for renegotiating tariffs on lobsters with the European Union — and criticized Barack Obama for creating a national marine monument off the New England coast," Dino Grandoni reports for The Washington Post. 

The Republican Party highlighted miners' concerns too. "Robert Vlaisavljevich, the mayor of Eveleth, a small town in Minnesota’s iron-mining region, said he is a lifelong Democrat now voting Trump," Grandoni reports. "Trump lost Minnesota by only 45,000 votes in the 2016 election, but former pro-labor Democratic strongholds in iron mining region have shown a growing affinity for Trump who has loosened up mining regulations and promised new jobs, Politico reported earlier this year." Vlaisavljevich said that Democrat Joe Biden allows "radicals" such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to create his environmental policy, which he conflated with the Green New Deal.

A rancher spoke during a segment featuring small-business owners. He "said his family stopped ranching after regulations became 'overbearing' but he had new hope under Trump," Grandoni reports.

Biden won't win the overall rural vote, but he's closer to Trump in rural areas than Hillary Clinton was in the 2016 election. But every rural vote may be critical for Trump, who lost the popular vote but won because of electoral votes decided in a handful of rural and blue-collar areas.

The economic messages were blended with social issues. It was a night of "God and mammon," Jeff Sharlet, founder of The Revealer, writes for Vanity Fair. "There’s a word used by the more esoteric Christian nationalists for this particular blend of theology and economics: theonomy. Others call it, more simply, “biblical capitalism,” an idea that, after a lifetime of religious indifference, perhaps comes naturally to a man who now names as his two favorite books The Art of the Deal and the Bible."

Sharlet concludes, "Liberalism’s too-common mistake is to suppose that Trump’s presidency remains transactional. That appeals can still be made to reasonable businessmen or to people of honest faith, that within conservatism remain constituencies bound together in an uneasy marriage, troubled, as they were in the past, by that which each faction, business people and believers, once saw as the party’s concessions to the crudities, impracticalities, or absurdities of the other. That’s how Trumpism began. What this Republican convention has revealed more starkly than before is what it has become: a fusion, a biblical capitalism of apocalyptic tendencies."

As far as fact-checking the second night, here's some of what The Associated Press had to say:

• First Lady Melania Trump claimed her husband was the first president to address the United National General Assembly to advocate for religious freedom. That is false; President Barack Obama did that in a 2012 speech, as did several predecessors.
• Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow said Trump inherited "a stagnant economy on the front end of recession" and that under Trump, "the economy was rebuilt in three years." That's untrue, AP reports. The economy was healthy when Trump was inaugurated, with low unemployment, steady job growth and a falling federal budget deficit on top. It benefited from the 2017 tax cuts, but the budget deficit climbed, and the current recession will "probably leave Trump with an inferior track record to his predecessor over four years."
• Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Trump had ended "ridiculously unfair trade deals with China that punched a hole in our economy." That's misleading, AP says. It's too soon to judge whether Trump's limited trade agreement with China is a winner, but, "whatever the weaknesses of the trade deals Trump inherited, it’s become clear that what he negotiated instead is not a gamechanger," AP reports. "The trade war that Trump escalated with China caused several self-inflicted wounds. Farmers and factories were part of the collateral damage from the volley of tariffs as the two largest countries in the world jockeyed for an edge."