Counties that supported Trump most in 2016 are seeing higher coronavirus infection rates recently

Counties that voted by more than a 20-point margin for Donald Trump in 2016 "have a recent infection rate 75 percent higher than counties that voted by a landslide for Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016," Tim Marema and Tim Murphy report for The Daily Yonder. "That could have an impact on the presidential election." Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says when polls control for party affiliation, people in places with surges in coronavirus cases are more likelier than elsewhere to say they intend to vote for Joe Biden.

Lake and Republican pollster Ed Goeas agreed in a Rural Assembly panel last week that Trump will win the majority of the rural vote. "But the margin is likely to be closer than the 2 to 1 gap he had in 2016," Murphy and Marema report. "Trump’s rural support has softened among women and senior citizens, primarily because of the pandemic and Trump’s leadership style, Lake and Goeas said." Click here for the full article with interactive charts.