Over 90% of rural heartland bankers surveyed say a recession is more likely than not within the next 12 months

Creighton University chart compares current month to last month and year ago; click here to download it and chart below.

A June survey of rural bankers in 10 heartland states that rely on agriculture and energy found that nearly 93 percent believe a recession is more likely than not within the next year. Accordingly, the Rural Mainstreet Index fell to 49.8 from last month's 57.7, the lowest reading since September 2020. Any number over 50 in the 0-100 index is growth-positive. The index surveys bankers in about 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 in Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

"Much like the nation, the growth in the Rural Mainstreet economy is slowing. Supply chain disruptions from transportation bottlenecks and labor shortages continue to constrain growth," writes Creighton University economist Ernie Goss, who compiles the index. "Farmers and bankers are bracing for escalating interest rates — both long-term and short-term."