A USDA miscount of 4.5 million acres of corn is adding to a loss of trust among farmers in federal data

For profit-parched farmers, USDA data report errors can be costly. Farmers already face losses, and many fear they can no longer rely on USDA predictions. (Graph by Lori Hayes, Farm Journal)

After one of its worst corn-harvest predictions "in recent memory," the U.S. Department of Agriculture blamed a lack of farmer survey responses for its miscount. But the steep decline in the number of farmers who returned surveys points to farming communities that may no longer trust the USDA, reports Kevin Draper of The New York Times. "Corn estimates were off by 4.5 million acres last year. A lack of survey responses, not job cuts, led to the miss, the Agriculture Department said."

While a 5% undercount may not seem like much, it may have affected commodity purchases and farm incomes. Draper explains, "Estimates of crop size are some of the most closely read [USDA] reports." Traders use those reports to decide on commodity purchases, which influences the prices farmers receive for their crops. Farmers use the information to decide when to sell their crops for the best price.

But amid deep staffing cuts at the USDA, many farmers worry that its reports are no longer reliable. "The corn miss prompted Farm Journal, an agricultural publication, to ask respondents to its monthly survey whether they remained confident in department data," Draper writes. "Most of the farmers, ranchers and economists polled responded 'no.'"

Because farmers compete in commodity trading markets, the accuracy of USDA data helped them gain a leg up over traders who use sophisticated algorithms to manage their purchases. Shay Foulk, who farms 1,500 acres and runs a seed business near Peoria, Ill., told Draper, "People trade the reports whether the reports are true or not. . . .The farmer just feels they are at a disadvantage if those numbers are inaccurate."

Among the USDA sections where Department of Government Efficiency cut thousands of jobs, the "National Agricultural Statistics Service, which produces crop reports, was one of the hardest-hit divisions; it lost 34% of its staff," Draper reports. NASS used to employ roughly 800 employees. It now has about 500.

America's aging farmers often don't have a family member to take over the family farm

As farmland changes hands, there will be far fewer family
farms in the U.S. (Photo by Johny Goerend, Unsplash)

Whether it's the unpredictable income, politics or little love for manual labor, many children of today's aging American farmers don't want to run the family farm. "There are more farmers 75 and older than under the age of 35. They are facing tough choices," reports Patrick Thomas of The Wall Street Journal. "Thousands across the U.S. are closing the book on farms that have been in their families for generations."

In today's farming economy, many farmers depend on federal bailouts, and even with that support, some still won't turn a profit. As a result, many farming families are selling their lands or claiming bankruptcy. 

Don Guinnip, a fifth-generation corn and soybearn farmer in Marshall, Illinois, doesn't think the future of family farms and their surrounding communities will be "pretty," Thomas writes. He told Thomas, "When farmers owned the land and lived on the land, they took care of the land and they formed communities that worked together and solved problems and took care of everybody. You’re not going to have that in the future.”

Like many children of farming families, Guinnip's children left the farm to attend college and move to bigger cities for professional careers. Thomas explains, "Children of farmers today have more opportunities to work beyond agriculture than they did decades ago, and families are typically smaller, shrinking the pool of possible candidates."

Seventy-four-year-old Guinnip thinks "he can maintain the current workload for a couple more years," Thomas writes. "He contemplates a day when a Guinnip no longer cares for the land that runs along Guinnip Road."

After a long wait by American farmers, China purchases U.S. soybeans for the first time since January

The loss of Chinese soybean sales over the summer 
caused U.S. soy prices to plummet. (Adobe Stock photo)

After months of giving American soybean farmers the cold shoulder, China purchased 14 cargoes of U.S. soybeans earlier this week. Karl Plume of Reuters reports, "It's the largest purchase since at least January and the most significant since a summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in October." 

Although soybeans from South America are significantly cheaper, Beijing purchased U.S. beans to "meet the pledges it made to Washington at the trade summit in Busan, South Korea," Plume explains. "The White House said China had agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this year." That's less than half of what China purchased -- roughly 27 million tons -- of U.S. soy in 2024.

 

The purchase marks a positive shift in U.S.-China trade relations, after a summer of tariff wars between the two countries, which led China to skip U.S. soybeans and instead purchase millions of tons of soy from Brazil and Argentina. 

 

The loss of Chinese soy purchases over the summer caused U.S. soy prices to tank, hurting American farmers already under stress from high costs and income insecurity. China bought nearly half of all U.S. soybeans in 2024.

 

Jim Sutter, chief executive officer of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told Reuters, "It is good to see the hard work of our U.S. trade negotiators and their Chinese counterparts turning into business for U.S. soy farmers and exporters. We look forward to this continuing as trade lanes are restored." 

Government shutdown causes ‘financial heartburn’ for farmers

The government shutdown has left some farmers in a 
lurch. (Photo by Gozha Net, Unsplash)

Farmers are experiencing “financial heartburn” due to a combination of tariffs, high input costs, absence of financial assistance and the lack of agricultural data and other resources due to the government shutdown, Rachel Shin reported for Politico.

“Every day that the government isn’t open, there’s slightly more anxiety in farm country, especially as growers are harvesting and having to pay bills and having to pay off their bank,” Texas farmer Russell Williams told Shin. “There’s serious risks of farm bankruptcies this year.”

Farmers like Andy Jobman are unable to access USDA agricultural data that allows him to run his business or track market changes. Meanwhile, other farmers are unable to access USDA payments for land and farm loans, according to Iowa Corn Growers Association Chair Stu Swanson.

Though the Trump administration has considered rolling out aid to farmers, no action has been taken due to the government shutdown.

Some Republican lawmakers are worried about the situation and are trying to push for aid to farmers.